The Hill's 12:30 Report: Decision day in Iowa

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 --> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.

 

The Hill's 12:30 Report: Decision day in Iowa | What each Democrat needs | Final poll shows Buttigieg, Sanders rising | Sights and sounds from the trail | Impeachment trial moves to closing arguments | Trump preps for State of the Union | What to expect | Democrats gear up for protests during speech | Latest on Greyhound bus shooting | National Carrot Cake Day

 

Before you keep reading, here is your theme song for today's newsletter --> http://bit.ly/3b8HcbN

^I've had this playing all morning 

 

NEWS OF THE MORNING

It's happening! It's really happening!!!:

See? She gets it. 

 

The 2020 presidential election is officially kicking off today with the Iowa Caucuses. (Eeek!) http://bit.ly/2Sfnsuo

What time: The caucuses begin at 8 p.m. EST (7 p.m. in Iowa). They generally last around an hour. https://n.pr/2RNJg1g

Who is leading in Iowa: Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersDNC warns campaigns about cybersecurity after attempted scam Overnight Health Care — Presented by American Health Care Association — Trump taps Pence to lead coronavirus response | Trump accuses Pelosi of trying to create panic | CDC confirms case of 'unknown' origin | Schumer wants .5 billion in emergency funds Biden looks to shore up lead in S.C. MORE (I-Vt.) has been leading by a small margin in Iowa polls, but the caucuses could go any way tonight. List of the recent Iowa polls, via Real Clear Politics: http://bit.ly/2tpzY21

 

THIS GRAPHIC REMINDS ME OF THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GAME 'FOUR CORNERS' -- DOES ANYONE ELSE REMEMBER THAT?:

The New York Times has a fascinating visual of what happens at an Iowa Caucus. It's worth checking out: https://nyti.ms/2Sa6jlI

For context: Here's a graphic of who won each Iowa county in 2016: http://bit.ly/36VqAkq

 

HELPFUL READ -- WHAT EACH CANDIDATE NEEDS TONIGHT:

Via The Hill's Niall Stanage from Des Moines: 

-  Sanders: A win.

-  Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden looks to shore up lead in S.C. Hillicon Valley: Dems cancel surveillance vote after pushback to amendments | Facebook to ban certain coronavirus ads | Lawmakers grill online ticketing execs | Hacker accessed facial recognition company's database Vulnerable Democrats brace for Sanders atop ticket MORE: To avoid disaster.

-  Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenBiden looks to shore up lead in S.C. Hillicon Valley: Dems cancel surveillance vote after pushback to amendments | Facebook to ban certain coronavirus ads | Lawmakers grill online ticketing execs | Hacker accessed facial recognition company's database Push for national popular vote movement gets boost from conservatives MORE (D-Mass.): A competitive position, preferably top three. A Warren victory here on Monday would be a surprise -- but not a seismic shock.

-  Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegBiden looks to shore up lead in S.C. Vulnerable Democrats brace for Sanders atop ticket The Hill's Campaign Report: Gloves off in South Carolina MORE (D): To beat Biden.

-  Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharBiden looks to shore up lead in S.C. The Hill's Campaign Report: Gloves off in South Carolina Lawmakers grill Ticketmaster, StubHub execs over online ticketing MORE (D-Minn.): To spring a surprise.

Reasoning for each: http://bit.ly/2v3j09S

 

Just released -- the final Iowa poll:

Via The Hill's Reid Wilson, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have a small lead in a new poll released on the day of the caucuses. http://bit.ly/2Oo5Ivv

The numbers: 

Buttigieg: 19 percent

Sanders: 17 percent

Former Vice President Joe Biden: 15 percent

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.): 15 percent

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.): 11 percent

Businessman Tom Steyer: 3 percent

Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardBiden leads by 18 points in South Carolina: poll Buttigieg notes diversity on debate stage: We're '7 white people talking about racial justice' Sanders grows lead in new Hill/HarrisX poll MORE (D-Hawaii): 3 percent of the vote

No one else polled above 1 percent.

Who conducted the poll: The Democratic group Focus on Rural America by party pollster David Binder conducted the poll.

The full poll results: http://bit.ly/2SkUCsG

 

It's Monday, Feb. 3. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com -- and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook.

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn

 

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS FROM IOWA

This was a weird moment:

Watch: http://bit.ly/3984A79

Tidbit -- Bruuuuutal: "Guy interrupts Biden rally. 'My wife left me.' Asks for how to get her back. Biden says he'll talk afterwards.  When guy won't sit down, Biden says 'I'm beginning to see why your wife left you.'" (Via The Washington Examiner's Tim CarneyPhoto of the interaction: http://bit.ly/31k4jvv

Pass the empties: "This Des Moines spot is so full waiting for [Sen. Warren] the bar just asked everyone to pass up their empties so they can keep serving." Photo: http://bit.ly/2tqrLL1

Aw, a baby with ear protection at a campaign rally: http://bit.ly/31iWsye

It's a party in Iowa:

Photo from an Andrew YangAndrew Yang6 ways the primary fight is toughening up Democrats for the fall general election The Hill's Morning Report - Sanders steamrolls to South Carolina primary, Super Tuesday Yang calls on someone to 'pull an Andrew Yang' and bow out of 2020 race MORE event at a restaurant: Via Buzzfeed's Matt Berman: http://bit.ly/2RVYzFc

The crowd of 1,108 for Sanders's last event before the caucuses: Here's a photo from Bloomberg's Jennifer Epsteinhttp://bit.ly/31k4xTc

Photo of Warren's overflow crowd in Infianola, Iowa: Via The Washington Post's Annie Linskeyhttp://bit.ly/2GVyhw9

Pete Buttigieg went for a morning run today: Here’s a photo: http://bit.ly/37PCnlv

An Iowan asked Sanders's wife, Jane Sanders, about Bernie's party membership: "At a campaign stop in Des Moines, a @BernieSanders supporter asked Jane Sanders what they should tell people who ask whether Sanders is a Democrat. She points out that Vermont doesn't have party registration and he's caucused with Democrats in Congress for three decades." (Via CNN's Jeff Zeleny) http://bit.ly/36S7ziS

Op-ed: http://bit.ly/31jYuOq

  

IN CONGRESS

Closing time, time for you to go out go out into the world:

--> http://bit.ly/2Uo0xQa

The Senate is hearing closing arguments today to conclude the impeachment trial against President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump passes Pence a dangerous buck Overnight Health Care — Presented by American Health Care Association — Trump taps Pence to lead coronavirus response | Trump accuses Pelosi of trying to create panic | CDC confirms case of 'unknown' origin | Schumer wants .5 billion in emergency funds Trump nods at reputation as germaphobe during coronavirus briefing: 'I try to bail out as much as possible' after sneezes MORE

What to expect: http://bit.ly/2GMswkD

When is the final vote to acquit?: Wednesday. http://bit.ly/31mbyTp

 

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS:

Senator/conductor: "[Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsRepublicans give Barr vote of confidence On the Trail: Senate GOP hopefuls tie themselves to Trump Kobach says he discussed his Senate bid with Trump MORE (R-Kansas)] stops to conduct the anti-Trump protestors singing 'God Bless America' to senators entering the Capitol" Video: http://bit.ly/2OoIAwY

These sketches are well done:

 

Also happening on Capitol Hill -- Hello and welcome to my thoughts and opinions: 

President Trump is giving his third State of the Union address tomorrow evening amid an already busy week in politics. http://bit.ly/31mbyTp

Timing: The vote is happening the day after the Iowa Caucuses and the day before the final impeachment trial vote.

This will be an interesting dynamic to watch: "Trump will speak from the House chamber on Tuesday night, providing his first face-to-face meeting with Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrump passes Pence a dangerous buck Overnight Health Care — Presented by American Health Care Association — Trump taps Pence to lead coronavirus response | Trump accuses Pelosi of trying to create panic | CDC confirms case of 'unknown' origin | Schumer wants .5 billion in emergency funds Stone judge under pressure over calls for new trial MORE (D-Calif.) since House Democrats voted last year to impeach him on two articles: abusing his power with his actions to Ukraine and obstructing Congress in its investigations of those actions." 

What to expect from Trump's address: "Trump is expected to use the speech to tout his vision as Washington increasingly turns its attention to the looming November election, where the president is fighting to hold onto the White House and both chambers of Congress are up for grabs." 

  

IN OTHER NEWS

A shooting on a Greyhound bus:

Via The Associated Press, a gunman opened fire on a California Greyhound bus traveling from Los Angeles to San Francisco early this morning, killing one and injuring five. http://bit.ly/393s7Gn

What happened: "A 911 caller reported the shooting at 1:27 a.m. as the bus was on Interstate 5 in a mountainous area between Los Angeles and the San Joaquin Valley, saying a person on board the bus with a gun had shot several passengers, [Sgt. Brian Pennings of the highway patrol said in a telephone interview."

Wow: "'The driver of the bus immediately pulled to the right shoulder and somehow -- we're still trying to figure out to how this happened -- were able to coerce the suspect off of the bus," [Pennings] said. After leaving the gunman behind, the driver continued to the next exit and pulled into the parking lot of a gas station."

The suspect: The suspect was taken into custody, and the motive is still not known. 

  

NOTABLE TWEETS

This gets funnier and funnier every time I watch it:

Watch: http://bit.ly/37UYreA

  

ON TAP

The Senate is out. The House is in. President Trump and Vice President Pence are in Washington, D.C.

11 a.m. EST: The Senate meets. The Senate's full schedule today: http://bit.ly/2RTiZhV  

12:30 p.m. EST: President Trump and Vice President Pence have lunch together in the private dining room.

 

WHAT TO WATCH

Today: Closing arguments in the Senate impeachment trial against President TrumpLivestream: https://cs.pn/2Op8vVh

 

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...

Today is National Carrot Cake Day.

 

And because this is one of the best videos I've seen in a while, here's a dog who loves winter activities: http://bit.ly/2tpfiqN