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The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - One week out, where the Trump, Biden race stands

 

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--> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.

 

The Hill’s 12:30 Report: One week until Election Day | How Trump taking Fla., Pa. could mean reelection | Early voting is consistent with polls | Comparing polling to 2016 | Barrett confirmed, sworn in an hour later | In-person White House event exactly one month after Rose Garden outbreak | Dems warn GOP will regret confirmation | D.C. early voting begins | 24-year-old creates broken McDonalds ice cream machine tracker

 

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

A week from now and people WILL BE VOTING. And it won’t be early voting anymore!:

 

 

Election Day is one week from today. Eeeek! 

Where the polling stands: Via The Hill’s Jonathan Easley, “Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE’s polling lead over President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE is holding steady in a significant shift from 2016, when Democrat Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBiden to name longtime aide Blinken as secretary of State: report Understanding mixed results in Pennsylvania key to future elections What's behind the divisions over Biden's secretary of Labor? MORE saw her lead fall in the week before Election Day.” https://bit.ly/37LN4bu

Why the polling *might be* a little more accurate this time: “All of the factors that pollsters measure to analyze volatility among likely voters — the number of undecideds, those considering third-party candidates and leaners who could still change their minds — are down at this point in 2020 compared to in 2016, keeping the race at a steady level that favors Biden in the home stretch.” 

Compared to 2016: “At this point in 2016, the polls had begun to tighten significantly, even if many analysts ignored it.”

NUMBERS TO KNOW:

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 7.4 points. https://bit.ly/3msTIaI 

More than 60 million Americans have already voted. That already tops the total number of early votes in 2016. https://cnn.it/31N03WR

It’s Tuesday. Can you believe October is almost over? I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com — and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn

 

A MESSAGE FROM FACEBOOK

A vote counted is a voice heard

 

 

Check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and get access to the latest, official information from election authorities in our Voting Information Center on Facebook and Instagram.

 

Explore the Voting Information Center now.


 

INTERESTING READ — ‘HOW EARLY VOTING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE POLLS’:

“A side effect of high turnout is that it has the potential for making the polls more accurate as well. A lot of problems in polling can come from trying to figure out which voters are more likely to actually turn out and vote … It's easier to know if someone is a registered voter than if they're a likely voter. If turnout is higher, the likely voter universe has a better chance of matching the registered voter universe.” Via CNN’s Harry Enten: https://cnn.it/3msJYgC

I SUGGEST READING THIS AND PASSING THIS AROUND — IF YOU’RE AT ALL SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VOTING PROCESS, THIS IS A HELPFUL Q&A:

Via Politico’s Zach Montellaro and Tim Albertahttps://politi.co/34uBhMJ 

Including answers to: “Isn’t it true that ballots have been mass-mailed out to everyone?” and “why are so many people suddenly being allowed to vote by mail?”

IF TRUMP CAN WIN FLORIDA AND PENNSVYLANIA, HE HAS A STRONG CHANCE OF WINNING ANOTHER TERM:

“Such an outcome is not implausible even though Trump is behind in polls in both states. Trump has higher hopes in Florida where Biden leads by under 2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. In Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead is around 5 points.” The full reasoning from The Hill’s Niall Stanagehttps://bit.ly/37KafTC

IN WASHINGTON

Another justice in town:

Amy Coney BarrettAmy Coney BarrettAlito to far-right litigants: The buffet is open Hispanics shock Democrats in deep blue California COVID-19: Justice Alito overstepped judicial boundaries MORE was sworn in as a Supreme Court justice last night, after a 52-48 Senate confirmation vote. https://bit.ly/3juCecl 

The only Republican not to vote for Barrett: Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsTeam Trump offering 'fire hose' of conspiracy Kool-Aid for supporters Democrats brush off calls for Biden to play hardball on Cabinet picks Hogan 'embarrassed that more people' in the GOP 'aren't speaking up' against Trump MORE (R-Maine)

The historic element: Via The New York Times’s Nicholas Fandos, “It was the first time in 151 years that a justice was confirmed without the support of a single member of the minority party, a sign of how bitter Washington’s war over judicial nominations has become.” https://nyti.ms/3jzsxcC 

About an hour after her confirmation vote: Justice Clarence ThomasClarence ThomasDefusing the judicial confirmation process Will the Supreme Court take ObamaCare off life-support? The overlooked significance Kamala Harris brought to the Biden-Harris ticket MORE swore her in at the White House. 

Why Justice Thomas administered the oath: Via The New York Times’s Maggie HabermanMaggie Lindsy HabermanMaggie Haberman to pen book about Trump's life and legacy Pence to spend time in Florida as Trump refuses to concede The Hill's 12:30 Report: How to read the battleground votes trickling in MORE “Judge Barrett chose Justice Thomas to swear her in partly because she admires his life story, but also because she clerked for the court while he was on the bench, an administration official said.” https://nyti.ms/37LmtLS

IF YOU’RE WONDERING IF GUESTS WERE SOCIALLY DISTANT:

Here’s a photo of the White House ceremony last night: Via CNN’s Kaitlan Collins:  https://bit.ly/35BjW44 

CNN’s Manu Raju pointed out: The swearing-in happened “a month to the day of the [White House] event that [Anthony FauciAnthony FauciFauci urges Americans to conduct 'risk-benefit assessment' before holiday travel Sunday shows - Virus surge dominates ahead of fraught Thanksgiving holiday Fauci: 'We're in a very difficult situation at all levels' but 'help is on the way' MORE] called superspreader.” https://bit.ly/35TgmTh 

And here’s a close-up of the guests: I don’t see a single maskless guest. Photohttps://bit.ly/3mpVkSH

HOW DEMOCRATS REACTED TO THE CONFIRMATION — ‘YOU’LL REGRET THIS’:

Democrats are under pressure from the left get rid of the filibuster and to expand the Supreme Court. https://bit.ly/37LOd2M

Barrett will be quickly thrown in:

Via Bloomberg’s Greg Stohr, “Justice Amy Coney Barrett will immediately be embroiled in some of the nation’s biggest legal battles, including cases that could determine whether the president who nominated her gets four more years in the White House.” 

Oh and: She “will take part when the court hears a challenge to the Affordable Care Act a week after the election.” https://bloom.bg/2G2pcF6 

From Barrett’s second swearing-in ceremony

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/2HHQf9s 

Why there are two ceremonies: “Supreme Court justices are required to take two oaths before they may execute the duties of their appointed office: the constitutional oath and the judicial oath.” More from ABC Newshttps://abcn.ws/31L3Un4

LATEST WITH THE CORONAVIRUS

Coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 8,708,533 

U.S. death toll: 225,792 

Breakdown of the numbershttps://cnn.it/2UAgW3y

 

A MESSAGE FROM FACEBOOK

Explore Facebook’s Voting Information Center

 

 

More than 39 million people have visited our Voting Information Center, which makes it easy to check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and prepare to vote safely.

 

Explore the Voting Information Center now.

 

 

NOTABLE TWEETS:

Early voting has begun in Washington, D.C.:

 

 

Watchhttps://bit.ly/3ktMNxs

What to know about early voting in D.C.: Via NBC Washington: https://bit.ly/3ovBaZl

Op-ed: https://bit.ly/3mmNqJC

Lol, I really appreciate ‘The Onion’ sometimes:

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/3oH9els

ON TAP:

The House and Senate are out. President Trump is campaigning in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Nevada. Vice President Pence is in North Carolina and South Carolina today. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in Georgia and Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisWomen set to take key roles in Biden administration Trump campaign appeals dismissal of Pennsylvania election challenge Pressure grows from GOP for Trump to recognize Biden election win MORE (D-Calif.) is in Nevada.  

12:25 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves for North Carolina.

12:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Michigan.

3 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves for South Carolina. 

4 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Wisconsin.

5:35 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence heads back to North Carolina. 

5:45 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in West Salem, Wis. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/2JcNHRh

6:50 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Wilmington, N.C.

7:45 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Nebraska.

9:20 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence returns to Washington, D.C. 

10:25 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Las Vegas where he will stay for the night. 

Thursday, Oct. 29: The Hill is hosting a virtual event, “America's Agenda: Infrastructure.” Featured speakers: Reps. Rodney DavisRodney Lee DavisGOP Rep. Dan Newhouse tests positive for COVID-19 Colorado Democrat Ed Perlmutter tests positive for coronavirus Biden's gain is Democratic baseball's loss with Cedric Richmond MORE (R-Ill.), Sam GravesSamuel (Sam) Bruce GravesLawmakers say infrastructure efforts are falling victim to deepening partisan divide The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump, Biden blitz battleground states Hillicon Valley: Big Tech hearing the most partisan yet | Rubio warns about foreign election interference | Trump campaign site briefly hacked MORE (R-Mo.) and Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.). Details and how to RSVPhttps://bit.ly/35PtcBZ

WHAT TO WATCH:

Noon: Former President Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaCan Biden vanquish Democrats' old, debilitating ghosts? How space exploration will help to address climate change Democrats' squabbling vindicates Biden non-campaign MORE campaigns for Joe Biden in Orlando, Fla. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/3mrsTDP 

1 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigns in Warm Springs, Ga. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/2HDRjvc

1 p.m. EDT: The Hill is hosting a virtual event, “COVID-19 & A Responsive Rx Supply Chain.” Featured speakers: Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Elissa SlotkinElissa SlotkinBickering Democrats return with divisions Questions swirl at Pentagon after wave of departures Overnight Defense: Another Defense official resigns | Pentagon chief says military 'remains strong' despite purge | Top contender for Biden DOD secretary would be historic pick MORE (D-Mich.) Livestream: https://bit.ly/3mkVzyr

1:40 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Greensboro N.C. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/3oxf7l2

2:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Lansing, Mich. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/2Jf247P 

3 p.m. EDT: First lady Melania TrumpMelania TrumpPresident says Trump Jr. doing 'very well' after COVID-19 diagnosis Trumps to spend Thanksgiving at White House instead of traveling to Florida Chelsea Clinton blames Trump for Secret Service officers in quarantine MORE campaigns in Atglen, Pa. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31LvAZd

3 p.m. EDT: Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) campaigns in Reno, Nev. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31P7qga

4:15 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Greenville, S.C. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/3mllnua 

5 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigns in Atlanta. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31MUCHi

5 p.m. EDT: Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) campaigns in Las Vegas. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31Lwh4L

9 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Omaha, Neb. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/37R6jAJ

Thank you for livestreaming these events, C-SPAN!

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...:

Today is National American Beer Day.

I applaud this hard work:

A 24-year-old software engineer launched website to track every broken McDonalds ice cream machine in the U.S. The full story from The Vergehttps://bit.ly/3kyAT5x 

Check out the map: 12 percent of the ice cream machines are currently broken. https://bit.ly/3kyC5FP

And to brighten you Tuesday afternoon, here’s a dog taking a lil’ nap on a cow: https://bit.ly/35HVj5K