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The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - One week out, where the Trump, Biden race stands

 

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--> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.

 

The Hill’s 12:30 Report: One week until Election Day | How Trump taking Fla., Pa. could mean reelection | Early voting is consistent with polls | Comparing polling to 2016 | Barrett confirmed, sworn in an hour later | In-person White House event exactly one month after Rose Garden outbreak | Dems warn GOP will regret confirmation | D.C. early voting begins | 24-year-old creates broken McDonalds ice cream machine tracker

 

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

A week from now and people WILL BE VOTING. And it won’t be early voting anymore!:

 

 

Election Day is one week from today. Eeeek! 

Where the polling stands: Via The Hill’s Jonathan Easley, “Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenMilitary must better understand sexual assaults to combat them The Hill's Equilibrium — Presented by NextEra Energy — Tasmanian devil wipes out penguin population On The Money: Democrats make full-court press on expanded child tax credit | White House confident Congress will raise debt ceiling MORE’s polling lead over President TrumpDonald TrumpWhat blue wave? A close look at Texas today tells of a different story Democrats go down to the wire with Manchin Trump's former bodyguard investigated in NY prosectors' probe: report MORE is holding steady in a significant shift from 2016, when Democrat Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonThe Memo: The center strikes back Democratic clamor grows for select committee on Jan. 6 attack White House denies pausing military aid package to Ukraine MORE saw her lead fall in the week before Election Day.” https://bit.ly/37LN4bu

Why the polling *might be* a little more accurate this time: “All of the factors that pollsters measure to analyze volatility among likely voters — the number of undecideds, those considering third-party candidates and leaners who could still change their minds — are down at this point in 2020 compared to in 2016, keeping the race at a steady level that favors Biden in the home stretch.” 

Compared to 2016: “At this point in 2016, the polls had begun to tighten significantly, even if many analysts ignored it.”

NUMBERS TO KNOW:

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 7.4 points. https://bit.ly/3msTIaI 

More than 60 million Americans have already voted. That already tops the total number of early votes in 2016. https://cnn.it/31N03WR

It’s Tuesday. Can you believe October is almost over? I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com — and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn

 

A MESSAGE FROM FACEBOOK

A vote counted is a voice heard

 

 

Check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and get access to the latest, official information from election authorities in our Voting Information Center on Facebook and Instagram.

 

Explore the Voting Information Center now.


 

INTERESTING READ — ‘HOW EARLY VOTING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE POLLS’:

“A side effect of high turnout is that it has the potential for making the polls more accurate as well. A lot of problems in polling can come from trying to figure out which voters are more likely to actually turn out and vote … It's easier to know if someone is a registered voter than if they're a likely voter. If turnout is higher, the likely voter universe has a better chance of matching the registered voter universe.” Via CNN’s Harry Enten: https://cnn.it/3msJYgC

I SUGGEST READING THIS AND PASSING THIS AROUND — IF YOU’RE AT ALL SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VOTING PROCESS, THIS IS A HELPFUL Q&A:

Via Politico’s Zach Montellaro and Tim Albertahttps://politi.co/34uBhMJ 

Including answers to: “Isn’t it true that ballots have been mass-mailed out to everyone?” and “why are so many people suddenly being allowed to vote by mail?”

IF TRUMP CAN WIN FLORIDA AND PENNSVYLANIA, HE HAS A STRONG CHANCE OF WINNING ANOTHER TERM:

“Such an outcome is not implausible even though Trump is behind in polls in both states. Trump has higher hopes in Florida where Biden leads by under 2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. In Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead is around 5 points.” The full reasoning from The Hill’s Niall Stanagehttps://bit.ly/37KafTC

IN WASHINGTON

Another justice in town:

Amy Coney BarrettAmy Coney BarrettOvernight Health Care: Takeaways on the Supreme Court's Obamacare decision | COVID-19 cost 5.5 million years of American life | Biden administration investing billions in antiviral pills for COVID-19 Five takeaways on the Supreme Court's Obamacare decision Supreme Court unanimously sides with Catholic adoption agency that turned away same-sex couples MORE was sworn in as a Supreme Court justice last night, after a 52-48 Senate confirmation vote. https://bit.ly/3juCecl 

The only Republican not to vote for Barrett: Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsPortman: Republicans are 'absolutely' committed to bipartisan infrastructure bill Democratic clamor grows for select committee on Jan. 6 attack Centrists gain foothold in infrastructure talks; cyber attacks at center of Biden-Putin meeting MORE (R-Maine)

The historic element: Via The New York Times’s Nicholas Fandos, “It was the first time in 151 years that a justice was confirmed without the support of a single member of the minority party, a sign of how bitter Washington’s war over judicial nominations has become.” https://nyti.ms/3jzsxcC 

About an hour after her confirmation vote: Justice Clarence ThomasClarence ThomasBiden's bad run: Is he doing worse in the courts than Trump? Overnight Health Care: Takeaways on the Supreme Court's Obamacare decision | COVID-19 cost 5.5 million years of American life | Biden administration investing billions in antiviral pills for COVID-19 Five takeaways on the Supreme Court's Obamacare decision MORE swore her in at the White House. 

Why Justice Thomas administered the oath: Via The New York Times’s Maggie HabermanMaggie Lindsy HabermanBiden vs. Trump is a compelling contrast for Democrats Schumer bemoans number of Republicans who believe Trump will be reinstated: 'A glaring warning' 3 in 10 Republicans believe Trump will be reinstated as president: poll MORE “Judge Barrett chose Justice Thomas to swear her in partly because she admires his life story, but also because she clerked for the court while he was on the bench, an administration official said.” https://nyti.ms/37LmtLS

IF YOU’RE WONDERING IF GUESTS WERE SOCIALLY DISTANT:

Here’s a photo of the White House ceremony last night: Via CNN’s Kaitlan Collins:  https://bit.ly/35BjW44 

CNN’s Manu Raju pointed out: The swearing-in happened “a month to the day of the [White House] event that [Anthony FauciAnthony FauciPoll: 61 percent say Fauci has been truthful to the best of his knowledge on COVID-19 origins The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden support, gas tax questions remain on infrastructure Juan Williams: Trump's GOP descends into farce MORE] called superspreader.” https://bit.ly/35TgmTh 

And here’s a close-up of the guests: I don’t see a single maskless guest. Photohttps://bit.ly/3mpVkSH

HOW DEMOCRATS REACTED TO THE CONFIRMATION — ‘YOU’LL REGRET THIS’:

Democrats are under pressure from the left get rid of the filibuster and to expand the Supreme Court. https://bit.ly/37LOd2M

Barrett will be quickly thrown in:

Via Bloomberg’s Greg Stohr, “Justice Amy Coney Barrett will immediately be embroiled in some of the nation’s biggest legal battles, including cases that could determine whether the president who nominated her gets four more years in the White House.” 

Oh and: She “will take part when the court hears a challenge to the Affordable Care Act a week after the election.” https://bloom.bg/2G2pcF6 

From Barrett’s second swearing-in ceremony

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/2HHQf9s 

Why there are two ceremonies: “Supreme Court justices are required to take two oaths before they may execute the duties of their appointed office: the constitutional oath and the judicial oath.” More from ABC Newshttps://abcn.ws/31L3Un4

LATEST WITH THE CORONAVIRUS

Coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 8,708,533 

U.S. death toll: 225,792 

Breakdown of the numbershttps://cnn.it/2UAgW3y

 

A MESSAGE FROM FACEBOOK

Explore Facebook’s Voting Information Center

 

 

More than 39 million people have visited our Voting Information Center, which makes it easy to check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and prepare to vote safely.

 

Explore the Voting Information Center now.

 

 

NOTABLE TWEETS:

Early voting has begun in Washington, D.C.:

 

 

Watchhttps://bit.ly/3ktMNxs

What to know about early voting in D.C.: Via NBC Washington: https://bit.ly/3ovBaZl

Op-ed: https://bit.ly/3mmNqJC

Lol, I really appreciate ‘The Onion’ sometimes:

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/3oH9els

ON TAP:

The House and Senate are out. President Trump is campaigning in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Nevada. Vice President Pence is in North Carolina and South Carolina today. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in Georgia and Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisWhat blue wave? A close look at Texas today tells of a different story A healthier planet and economy is worth fighting for Watch live: Harris gives remarks on the child tax credit MORE (D-Calif.) is in Nevada.  

12:25 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves for North Carolina.

12:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Michigan.

3 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves for South Carolina. 

4 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Wisconsin.

5:35 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence heads back to North Carolina. 

5:45 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in West Salem, Wis. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/2JcNHRh

6:50 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Wilmington, N.C.

7:45 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Nebraska.

9:20 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence returns to Washington, D.C. 

10:25 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Las Vegas where he will stay for the night. 

Thursday, Oct. 29: The Hill is hosting a virtual event, “America's Agenda: Infrastructure.” Featured speakers: Reps. Rodney DavisRodney Lee DavisThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Senate path uncertain after House approves Jan. 6 panel Capitol Police Board signals resistance to reform McCarthy says that he will not support bipartisan deal for Jan. 6 commission MORE (R-Ill.), Sam GravesSamuel (Sam) Bruce GravesGOP lawmaker points to Colonial Pipeline as infrastructure vulnerability Gas shortages spread to more states Republicans welcome the chance to work with Democrats on a bipartisan infrastructure bill MORE (R-Mo.) and Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.). Details and how to RSVPhttps://bit.ly/35PtcBZ

WHAT TO WATCH:

Noon: Former President Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaObama: Voting rights bill must pass before next election The world's most passionate UFO skeptic versus the government Biden plans to host Obama for portrait unveiling that Trump skipped: report MORE campaigns for Joe Biden in Orlando, Fla. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/3mrsTDP 

1 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigns in Warm Springs, Ga. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/2HDRjvc

1 p.m. EDT: The Hill is hosting a virtual event, “COVID-19 & A Responsive Rx Supply Chain.” Featured speakers: Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Elissa SlotkinElissa SlotkinRepublicans eye Nashville crack-up to gain House seat Democrats seize on GOP opposition to Jan. 6 commission Hillicon Valley: Democrats urge Facebook to abandon 'Instagram for kids' plan | 'Homework gap' likely to persist after pandemic MORE (D-Mich.) Livestream: https://bit.ly/3mkVzyr

1:40 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Greensboro N.C. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/3oxf7l2

2:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Lansing, Mich. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/2Jf247P 

3 p.m. EDT: First lady Melania TrumpMelania TrumpBiden plans to host Obama for portrait unveiling that Trump skipped: report Jill Biden, Kate Middleton visit school together in first meeting Jill Biden wears 'LOVE' jacket 'to bring unity' to meeting with Boris Johnson MORE campaigns in Atglen, Pa. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31LvAZd

3 p.m. EDT: Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) campaigns in Reno, Nev. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31P7qga

4:15 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Greenville, S.C. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/3mllnua 

5 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigns in Atlanta. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31MUCHi

5 p.m. EDT: Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) campaigns in Las Vegas. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/31Lwh4L

9 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Omaha, Neb. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/37R6jAJ

Thank you for livestreaming these events, C-SPAN!

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...:

Today is National American Beer Day.

I applaud this hard work:

A 24-year-old software engineer launched website to track every broken McDonalds ice cream machine in the U.S. The full story from The Vergehttps://bit.ly/3kyAT5x 

Check out the map: 12 percent of the ice cream machines are currently broken. https://bit.ly/3kyC5FP

And to brighten you Tuesday afternoon, here’s a dog taking a lil’ nap on a cow: https://bit.ly/35HVj5K