The Hill’s 12:30 Report – Presented by Facebook – Election night could be a bit messy
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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*
*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.
The Hill’s 12:30 Report: US economy’s record GDP gains | How election night could be messy | Trump’s 50 percent problem | Trump, Biden campaign events’ stark contrast | Trump, Biden overlap in Tampa | Pence travels to states with close GOP senate races | Pelosi presses Mnuchin to respond to COVID-19 relief negotiations | Christie spotted at Newark airport, asked about his vote | NYT’s Trump vs. Biden fridge quiz
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
Election night could be a bit messy:
Via The Hill’s Reid Wilson, “President Trump’s hostility toward mail-in voting in the midst of a global pandemic and a new U.S. Supreme Court decision blocking extended ballot deadlines in a battleground state have election officials worried that two branches of government are undermining confidence in an election Trump is poised to lose.” https://bit.ly/31VTX6i
“Trump has increasingly demanded on Twitter that results be known on Election Night, a ploy apparently designed to exclude millions of people who vote by mail and whose ballots may not be counted immediately even if they arrive long before the polls close.”
What could happen: https://bit.ly/31VTX6i
TRUMP FIGHTS FOR BATTLGROUND ARIZONA:
WHY BIDEN COULD ACTUALLY WIN TEXAS:
Interesting read — 50 percent is no longer the magic number:
Via Politico’s David Siders and Zach Montellaro, “Donald Trump won the presidency with 46 percent of the popular vote. His approval rating, according to Gallup, has never hit 50 percent. He remains under 50 percent in national polling averages.” https://politi.co/3oNA8Iq
What this means: “The president’s inability to capture a majority of support sheds light on his extraordinary attempts to limit the number of votes cast across the battleground state map — a massive campaign-within-a-campaign to maximize Trump’s chances of winning a contest in which he’s all but certain to earn less than 50 percent of the vote.”
A few examples: “In Philadelphia, his campaign is videotaping voters as they return ballots. In Nevada, it’s suing to force elections officials in Nevada’s Democratic-heavy Clark County to more rigorously examine ballot signatures for discrepancies that could disqualify them.” There are similar examples in Ohio, New Hampshire and Arizona.
^And that’s just to name a few of the efforts.
Why this matters: https://politi.co/3oNA8Iq
From a rally yesterday:
Watch: https://bit.ly/31UorFV
It’s Thursday. I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com — and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook.
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NEWS THIS MORNING
Some good news for the economy:
Via The Hill’s Sylvan Lane, “The U.S. economy grew at a record 33.1 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, swiftly recovering some of the deep losses driven by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department.” https://bit.ly/2TxjmPc
For context: “Economists had widely expected gross domestic product (GDP) to rebound at an unprecedented rate in the third quarter as the U.S. began to dig itself out of the coronavirus recession. The U.S. added 3.8 million jobs between July and September and saw sharp increases in consumer spending, particularly on personal goods household products.”
IN CONGRESS
Nancy Pelosi has once again handed off the baton:
In a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) demanded a response on Democrats’ latest negotiations for a coronavirus relief package. https://bit.ly/35OCONj
In Pelosi’s words: “Your responses are critical for our negotiations to continue. The President’s words that ‘after the election, we will get the best stimulus package you have ever seen’ only have meaning if he can get [Senate Majority Leader] Mitch McConnell to take his hand off the pause button and get Senate Republican Chairmen moving toward agreement with their House counterparts.”
House Dems are hoping the wave is blue:
Via The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Scott Wong, “Not too long ago, the notion that [House] Democrats would expand their majority in any significant fashion was virtually unthinkable. In January of 2019, at the start of the cycle, the party’s campaign arm was bracing to protect dozens of vulnerable lawmakers in red-leaning regions, 30 of whom represent districts won by President Trump in 2016.” https://bit.ly/3mAXq2m
Yes, but now: “Twenty-two months later they’re on the offensive, buoyed by a historic fundraising haul, a highly energized base and President Trump’s sinking approval numbers, which have combined to produce highly competitive races even deep into Trump country.”
What to expect: https://bit.ly/3mAXq2m
Meanwhile, it’s possible that Republicans keep the Senate:
Via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton, “Republicans see a path running through Michigan and Minnesota to hold a slim Senate majority in the next Congress. The odds are stacked against them and many see the GOP as the underdog in the fight for control of the Senate.” https://bit.ly/31PrmQ8
The scenario for the GOP: “But Republicans think that even if as many as four GOP incumbents go down in defeat next week, they can keep their majority by ousting Sen. Gary Peters (D) in Michigan or Sen. Tina Smith (D) in Minnesota.”
MIKE PENCE IS FOCUSING HIS CAMPAIGN TRAVEL ON STATES WITH CLOSE SENATE RACES:
Via The Hill’s Brett Samuels, “Vice President Pence is focusing his campaign travel this week on states where vulnerable Republican senators are up for reelection, seeking to bolster their prospects by highlighting their role in the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett.” https://bit.ly/31RzVdc
For example: “The vice president this week is campaigning with three GOP senators who sit on the Senate Judiciary Committee, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), who chairs the committee, and Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Joni Ernst (Iowa).”
LATEST WITH THE CORONAVIRUS
Coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 8,865,697
U.S. death toll: 227,774
Breakdown of the numbers: https://cnn.it/2UAgW3y
For context: Three months ago today, 4,363,511 Americans had tested positive for the coronavirus and 149,407 had died. https://bit.ly/3e9V2w9
‘EUROPEAN HOSPITALS ARE FILLING AT AN ALARMING PACE:
Via The New York Times: https://nyti.ms/2TzXX83
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NOTABLE TWEETS:
It looks like a ‘how it started vs. how it ended’ meme:
Hyperlink https://bit.ly/2HJXtde
Hey, Chris, heyyy:
Hyperlink https://bit.ly/31OMzd5
ON TAP:
The House and Senate are out. President Trump is in Florida and North Carolina. Vice President Pence is in Iowa and Nevada. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in Florida and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is holding a virtual rally.
Noon: President Trump leaves Doral, Fla. and flies to Tampa, Fla.
12:35 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves Washington, D.C., and flies to Des Moines, Iowa.
3:10 p.m. ED: President Trump and first lady Melania Trump leave for North Carolina.
4:30 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves for Reno, Nev., where he will stay for the night.
5:15 p.m. EDT: President Trump and first lady Melania Trump participate in a Troop Engagement in Fort Bragg, N.C.
10 p.m. EDT: President Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrive at the White House.
WHAT TO WATCH:
1:30 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigns in Broward County, Fla. Livestream: https://cs.pn/35IK3pP
1:35 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Tampa. Livestream: https://cs.pn/3oFH5Li
3:10 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Des Moines, Iowa. Livestream: https://cs.pn/3oAmDvr
6:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Fayetteville, N.C. Livestream: https://cs.pn/3oBoujC
6:30 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a drive-in rally in Tampa, Fla. Livestream: https://cs.pn/35Nkjsv
8 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Reno, Nev. Livestream: https://cs.pn/31U9Z0D
8 p.m. EDT: Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) hold a virtual campaign rally together. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2HKbWpz
NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF…:
Today is National Oatmeal Day.
Well, this was an entertaining part of my morning:
The New York Times’s John Keefe published a quiz, “can you tell a ‘Trump’ fridge from a ‘Biden’ fridge?” https://nyti.ms/2HB3Uzn
“We wondered if it was possible to identify Trump and Biden voters based on what’s inside their refrigerators, on the theory it might say something about our similarities and our assumptions about one another.”
Take the quiz: https://nyti.ms/2HB3Uzn
And because you made it to Thursday afternoon (yay!), here are otters visiting the orangutans in a Belgian zoo: https://bit.ly/3kEfsjD
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