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The Hill's 12:30 Report - 2020 Election Edition: Where the uncalled states stand

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--> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.

 

The Hill’s 12:30 Report — 2020 Election Edition: Race likely comes down to 5 states | Biden would need 2, Trump 4 | Where the uncalled states stand | Trump stokes fears of unrest | Signals he is ready for a court battle | Biden campaign feeling bullish | Election night sights and sounds | Watch party menu at the White House | Activists gather in D.C. | Honking replaces cheers at Biden party | Senate control in limbo | Dems keep House control but had a terrible night | National Candy Day

 

LATEST IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Oh, you wanted an answer about *gestures broadly at everything* this?:

 

 

The race between President TrumpDonald John TrumpPennsylvania Supreme Court strikes down GOP bid to stop election certification Biden looks to career officials to restore trust, morale in government agencies Sunday shows preview: US health officials brace for post-holiday COVID-19 surge MORE and Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenPennsylvania Supreme Court strikes down GOP bid to stop election certification Biden looks to career officials to restore trust, morale in government agencies Biden transition adds new members to coronavirus task force MORE has not been called yet — and whatever the eventual result, expect a photo finish.

Jimmy KimmelJames (Jimmy) Christian KimmelObama jokes that he's 'scared' of Michelle, Sasha Obama surprises speechless fan with live book reading on Kimmel Obama riffs on Trump: 'We can always send the Navy SEALs in' MORE described the night well: “This is like being awake during your own surgery.” https://bit.ly/3jT3j91 

Lol, and here’s Stephen ColbertStephen Tyrone ColbertObama: Republican Party members believe 'white males are victims' Literary group to honor Obama Obama criticizes Trump on pandemic response: 'It's not rocket science' MORE’s take: “The human body was not made to expend this much energy thinking about Pennsylvania.” https://bit.ly/2TRj9Xt

WHERE WE STAND:

States have still not been called: Georgia (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Alaska (3) and North Carolina (15). The map: https://politi.co/350Iepj 

^ Keep in mind: Fox News and AP have called Arizona for Biden. And Trump will very likely win Alaska. 

What needs to happen: 98 votes are still in play. Biden needs an addition 43 Electoral College votes, while Trump needs an additional 57 electoral votes. https://nyti.ms/3mUzFCy

IF YOU’RE WONDERING WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY — HERE’S A GUIDE TO WHEN WE MIGHT KNOW THE REMAINING STATES:

Via The New York Times’s Maggie Astorhttps://nyti.ms/32d1m1m

OF THE STATES LEFT — THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR EITHER TRUMP OR BIDEN TO REACH THE 270-VOTE THRESHOLD:

The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake and Shelly Tan have mapped out the possible scenarios for either candidate to win.  

“Two other states appear likeliest to go in Biden’s column. One is Arizona … The other is Nevada.” And if that is the case, five battleground states will determine the election outcome — Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

And if we are looking at that scenario: “Biden needs two of them, while Trump needs four.”  

The scenario models: Bookmark this page. The Washington Post will update the scenarios. https://wapo.st/3jWjYso 

If we’re getting technical

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/34WdWUs

TAKEAWAYS FROM WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR:

The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman pointed out two things about where Biden stands

“1) Biden is well on his way to flipping MI & WI (in addition to AZ & #NE02) and is doing well enough in PA's completed counties to be on track to win there

2) Polls (esp. at district-level) have rarely led us more astray & it's going to take a long time to unpack” https://bit.ly/2TSbJTJ

AP Decision Desk explains why North Carolina has not been called: “Though Trump is correct that he held a 76,000-vote lead in the state early Wednesday, the race is too close to call and there are still about 200,000 mail-in ballots left to count. As long as those ballots are postmarked by Nov. 3, state election officials have until Nov. 12 to count them. And when it comes to mail ballots, Biden was far outperforming Trump. That means there’s a considerable number of ballots yet to be counted that could give Biden a lead." (Via Bloomberg’s Emma Kineryhttps://bit.ly/3kSBXkO

Turnout was impressive, but didn’t break the record: The University of Florida’s Michael McDonald explained, “2020's turnout in historical perspective. Highest in about 120 years, but not an all-time high.” Chart showing turnout since the 1700s: https://bit.ly/2TSaiob 

The likely scenario for the popular vote: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted: “It probably works out to Biden getting 52-ish percent of the popular vote on a turnout of 155 million-ish votes, which would be around 80 million. Trump might get say 73-75 million. Likely the top two popular vote totals in US history, both surpassing Obama '08.” https://bit.ly/2TUsk9i

Other takeaways

- Whether or not Trump wins or loses, he over-performed

- It was a bad night for pollsters, *again*

- Trump’s early hours speech stirred fear

- The media’s consensus on Trump is at odds with public perception

- Even if Biden wins, it’s no ringing endorsement for him

Context for each from The Hill’s Niall Stanagehttps://bit.ly/2GsiE2N

How is everybody holding up? Filing with my third cup of coffee in hand, I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of election night, takeaways and what races are still undecided. Send comments, story ideas and happy thoughts to cmartel@thehill.com — and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn

HOW THE TRUMP AND BIDEN CAMPAIGNS ARE REACTING

LATE THIS A.M. — ughhh, this is where the race gets scary, no matter the outcome:

President Trump doubled down on his message overnight, questioning the early election results that first showed him winning and then “magically disappeared.”  

Trump tweeted: “Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the ‘pollsters’ got it completely & historically wrong!” https://bit.ly/3kYD4Q7

TRUMP EYES ARIZONA AND PENNSYLVANIA — AND SIGNALS HE IS READY FOR A COURT BATTLE:

https://bit.ly/32ai41u

AROUND 2:15 A.M.: President Trump adding ‘pollster’ to the skills section of his resume:

President Trump prematurely declared victory early this morning while no media outlet or election official has declared him last night’s winner. https://bit.ly/2I35ytG

Trump told supporters: “This is a fraud on the American public. This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.” 

Why we can’t call the race: Millions of ballots still need to be counted.

What Trump is asserting: That he won Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, all states that have not been called by any decision desk. Thousands of ballots need to be counted before those races are called.

The frustrating part — Trump contradicted himself: Trump argued that votes should still be counted in Arizona, where he is trailing, but that ballots should stop being counted in states where he is currently leading. 

Even some of Trump’s allies rebuked the president’s comments. Reactionshttps://bit.ly/2I35ytG

Watch Trump’s full remarks: If you didn’t happen to stay up that late ;) https://cs.pn/38cxNRk

^THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN HAD A FEW WORDS FOR THE TRUMP TEAM:

Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillion issued a statement rebuking Trump. "The counting will not stop. It will continue until every duly cast vote is counted. Because that is what our laws — the laws that protect every Americans' constitutional right to vote — require." https://bit.ly/34VL2Ui

AROUND 12:30 A.M. — Ya can’t spell patience without PA, amirite?:

During Biden’s election night remarks, the Democratic presidential nominee urged patience while the outstanding ballots are counted. https://bit.ly/3oVLD0d

In Biden’s words: “It may take a little longer. As I’ve said all along, it’s not my place or Donald trump’s place to declare who won this election. It’s put to the American people. But I’m optimistic about the outcome.”

Keep in mind about Biden’s watch party in Wilmington, Del.: To socially distance, supporters gathered in their cars at Biden’s watch party. That means Biden was met by a lot of car honking during his speech. 

Watch Biden’s full remarkshttps://cs.pn/2JvW3Dz

TEAM BIDEN IS FEELING MORE BULLISH IN PUBLIC AND IN PRIVATE:

Via The Hill’s Amie Parneshttps://bit.ly/38blxkb

WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS EXPECTING TO HAPPEN:

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/3oZl1eM 

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS:

An empty Washington Post newsroom on election night: This is both spooky and sad. Photohttps://bit.ly/35YDyiM

The sunset last night on the national mall: Wow. Photohttps://bit.ly/3oXexgq

What an amazing sponsorship: The meditations and sleep app “Calm” sponsored part of CNN’s election night coverage. Screenshot to prove ithttps://bit.ly/2I1HeIF 

Tidbit: A polling location in New Hampshire had a separate polling area for voters who choose not to wear masks. The sign: “NO-MASK OUTDOOR VOTING” Photo: https://bit.ly/2JvSvkN

A look at the Trump watch party at 2:30 a.m. ESThttps://bit.ly/2TWjWpK 

Getting traction — LOL: The Miami Herald’s Lautaro Grinspan tweeted, “I just spoke with 28yr-old Miamian Alex Garcia. He said he woke up today thinking he was going to vote for Trump BUT he changed his mind at the voting booth. He ended up picking Biden to ‘go back to normal.’ ‘I just want my Instagram to be about me again, and how good I look’” https://bit.ly/385hFRD

Fox News’s countdown clock showed milliseconds. MILLISECONDS.: It gave me such anxiety. See for yourselfhttps://bit.ly/3mTg3i7 

A mom on election night: NBC’s Kasie Hunt posted a photo of her baby watching her election night coverage. Photohttps://bit.ly/3mOYkIr 

The menu at the White House watch party – tell me more about this ‘variety of desserts’: “sliders, chicken tenders, French fries and a variety of desserts” (Via Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobshttps://bit.ly/2I1m8dq

A sampling of the White House’s watch party food

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/3644LAC 

AP has set up camp at Freedom Plaza in D.C.: Here’s a photo from Washingtonian’s Andrew Beaujonhttps://bit.ly/329EYWF

NBC was projected on a big screen in D.C.: Photo from The Hill’s Olivia Beavershttps://bit.ly/32bODfd 

Around 9:30 p.m. — it looked like a festival in D.C.’s McPherson Square: Video from Fox5’s Lindsay Watts: https://bit.ly/2TS7FTm

Big win for the reporters covering Biden: The Daily Mail’s Nikki Schwab tweeted that the press pool was given pigs in a blanket last night. Photohttps://bit.ly/3oS3nK1

This is an entertaining throwback — I didn’t know Nixon ditched the press and drove to Tijuana for tacos on Election Day: The Daily Beast’s Matt Lewis tweeted, “On Election Day 1960, Richard Nixon ditched the press—and drove to Tijuana for Mexican food! On a recent podcast, [historian David Pietrusza], author of '1960,' recounted the story...” Listen — it’s pretty interestinghttps://bit.ly/3oTotYz

At the Biden watch party around 12:30 a.m. EDT: “It’s pretty … It’s 39 degrees so most supporters are in their cars, on their phones. We’re in our circles waiting for the Dem nominee to arrive.” (Via The Daily Mail’s Nikki Schwabhttps://bit.ly/3mOHcT3

IN THE SENATE

*Shrug* I mean, who even knows?:

“Control of the Senate is in limbo after neither party won an outright majority of seats as of early Wednesday morning.” https://bit.ly/34WAvsk

Two biggest undecided races: “North Carolina and Maine, two toss-up races where the Republican incumbents have single-digit leads but a substantial portion of votes have yet to be counted.”

Republicans currently hold 53 seats. 

Democrats flipped two Republican seats last night: Democrats defeated Republican incumbents Sens. Cory GardnerCory GardnerHillicon Valley: Trump fires top federal cybersecurity official, GOP senators push back | Apple to pay 3 million to resolve fight over batteries | Los Angeles Police ban use of third-party facial recognition software Senate passes bill to secure internet-connected devices against cyber vulnerabilities Democrats vent to Schumer over Senate majority failure MORE (Colo.) and Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyTrump nominee's long road to Fed may be dead end McSally, staff asked to break up maskless photo op inside Capitol McSally's final floor speech: 'I gave it my all, and I left it all on the field' MORE (Ariz.). 

But Republicans flipped one Democratic seat last night: Democratic incumbent Sen. Doug Jones lost to former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville in Alabama. 

So, Democrats have netted one seat so far. Democrats need to either win two more Senate seats, plus the White House — or win three more Senate seats for an outright majority.

THE POSSIBLE RUNOFFS — THIS IS WHAT COULD DETERMINE SENATE CONTROL:

Michigan and Georgia. “The contest between [GOP Sen. David Perdue (Ga.)] and Democrat Jon Ossoff has not yet been called by the AP. And the special election for the other seat will go to a runoff because no candidate received 50% of the vote — [Republican Sen. Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerMcConnell halts in-person Republican lunches amid COVID-19 surge Sunday shows preview: US health officials brace for post-holiday COVID-19 surge Club for Growth to launch ad blitz in Georgia to juice GOP turnout MORE (Ga.)] will face Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor from Atlanta, on Jan. 5. In Michigan, which could take some time to finish counting ballots, the contest between GOP candidate John James, a top recruit, and Democratic Sen. Gary PetersGary PetersRepublican John James concedes in Michigan Senate race Hillicon Valley: YouTube suspends OANN amid lawmaker pressure | Dems probe Facebook, Twitter over Georgia runoff | FCC reaffirms ZTE's national security risk Democrats urge YouTube to remove election misinformation, step up efforts ahead of Georgia runoff MORE is still undecided.” Full breakdown from NPR’s Deirdre Walshhttps://n.pr/365C7iy

IN THE HOUSE

Democrats will still control the House, but it was a reallllly bad night for them:

Via The Hill’s Scott Wong and Mike Lillis, “Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiClub for Growth to launch ad blitz in Georgia to juice GOP turnout Governors take heat for violating their own coronavirus restrictions Spending deal clears obstacle in shutdown fight MORE (D-Calif.) and her invigorated caucus charged into Tuesday with an energized base, a sharp fundraising advantage and hopes to flip anywhere from five to 15 Republican seats on election night. Instead, it was the Republicans who scored big — at least in the early counting — knocking out at least a half dozen vulnerable Democrats with several more clinging to the ropes.” https://bit.ly/32tNdx5

MEANWHILE WITH THE CORONAVIRUS

Coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 9,394,282 

U.S. death toll: 232,742

Breakdown of the numbershttps://cnn.it/2UAgW3y

NOTABLE TWEETS:

Omg, this is the “It is your birthday.” of cookie cakes:

At least Kelly Kapoor can’t say this cake doesn’t have a theme?  

Throwback to this classic scene from The Officehttps://bit.ly/3enSHhx 

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/362JcAl 

 

Buh dum ptchhh:

 

  

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/2TVv3iZ 

Lol, @gtoppo responded: “Don't PA/NC!” https://bit.ly/3jYGgtJ

Kanye who? East, you said?:

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/38olAt5 

ON TAP:

The House and Senate are out. I caught a typo overnight, “The House and Senate ate out.” Maybe I’m just delirious, but it made me laugh and I wanted to share.

President Trump has no public events scheduled.

Vice President Pence has no public events scheduled.

WHAT TO WATCH:

This morning: Pennsylvania officials gave an update on the state’s election. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/3jWBs89

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...:

Today is National Candy Day. Remember how yesterday was National Sandwich Day? Stephen Colbert tweeted, “Easily the most stressful National Sandwich Day in my lifetime.” I couldn’t agree more. https://bit.ly/38eQ803

And because to destress us all, here are a few reasons that dogs and babies make the best of friends: https://bit.ly/3eoacON