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The Hill's 12:30 Report: How to read the battleground votes trickling in

BREAKING

Biden adds to his lead in Nevada:

Via The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston, Nevada just released a new batch of votes showing Joe BidenJoe BidenPennsylvania Supreme Court strikes down GOP bid to stop election certification Biden looks to career officials to restore trust, morale in government agencies Biden transition adds new members to coronavirus task force MORE’s lead increasing to 11,458. https://bit.ly/2TYYzo4

Details: A batch of votes in Clark County gave Biden a lead over 12,042 votes. But shortly after, votes trickled in from a rural area, helping Trump by around 300 votes. https://bit.ly/2I7h4UU 

Biden’s lead before this noon batch of votes: Around 7,000 https://bit.ly/2Gwzfmd 

The raw vote gain for both Trump and Biden: “- Joe Biden: +9,101 votes - Donald Trump: +4,706 votes” (Via The Nevada Independent’s Megan Messerlyhttps://bit.ly/3l2Kthl

For context, from Ralston: “Only about 14K votes or so updated from Clark and Biden lead goes up by almost 5K. See the advantage Dems have with mail. If that is ratio for ballots in Clark, very bad news for Trump.” https://bit.ly/2TYYzo4 

What percent of votes are reporting: Still at 87 percent, according to CNN’s Dan Mericahttps://bit.ly/3eGgx8t

WHERE THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE STANDS

Turns out, this is a much more effective — and high stakes — way to learn American geography:

 

 

^I will never forget that Phoenix, Ariz., is in Maricopa County, Atlanta, Ga., is in Fulton County and Las Vegas, Nev., is in Clark County. 

The gist of where the race stands: Votes are still being counted in five key battlegrounds. President TrumpDonald John TrumpPennsylvania Supreme Court strikes down GOP bid to stop election certification Biden looks to career officials to restore trust, morale in government agencies Sunday shows preview: US health officials brace for post-holiday COVID-19 surge MORE’s lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia is shrinking as ballots continue to the counted, but Joe Biden’s lead in Arizona also appears to be shrinking. Biden has a very slight lead in Nevada. Trump is leading North Carolina, but it will depend on mail-in ballots.

I highly suggest you read this — what’s going on in each of the final states: The New York Times’s Nate Cohn published an update this morning on each of the key states. https://nyti.ms/3p2YmOL   

The Electoral College vote count: Biden has 253 votes. Trump has 214. 71 Electoral College votes are remaining. 

That means Biden needs an additional 17 Electoral College votes to win, while Trump needs 56

The remaining statesPennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Nevada (6) and Alaska (3). Though you might as well give those three Alaska votes to Trump.

The possible scenarios left: Biden has 27 ways to win, Trump has 4 ways to win and there is one scenario of a 269-269 tie. The graphichttps://bit.ly/2JIxvaR 

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/2I0VFwd

It’s Thursday — how is everyone’s blood pressure?? I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com — and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook.

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn

SOME CONTEXT

If you’re wondering specifically why some news outlets have called Arizona and others have not: Bloomberg’s Gregory Korte has a good explainer: https://bloom.bg/3exHIlM

This is a good point about worst-case scenarios: Journalist Jonathan Nicholson pointed out, “Considering what the Worst Case Scenarios were, Election Day wasn't half bad. 

* no massive cyberhacking

* no last-minute deepfake video/audio to create chaos

* no violence or even partisan linestanding tussles at polls

* orderly, if long, count” https://bit.ly/2HXCYtR

A Latino reporter gives some context to the Florida results: The New York Times’s Patricia Mazzei explains the Florida electorate. The thread of tweetshttps://bit.ly/367R7fR   

Republicans had a very good night in state legislatureshttps://bit.ly/3kWnFQa 

ELECTION WINNERS

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMcConnell halts in-person Republican lunches amid COVID-19 surge Biden and reproductive health rights Biden's Cabinet a battleground for future GOP White House hopefuls MORE (R-Ky.)

House Republicans

The pollsters who stood out from the crowd

Lawyers

 

ELECTION LOSERS

Most pollsters

Democratic congressional leaders

Democratic donors 

National unity

 

Explanations for each from The Hill’s Niall Stanagehttps://bit.ly/3mSipxy

FROM THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN

Lots of all-caps messages from Trump’s official Twitter account:

At 9:12 a.m. EST: “STOP THE COUNT!” https://bit.ly/3oWNnqa

At 10:09 a.m. EST: “ANY VOTE THAT CAME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY WILL NOT BE COUNTED!” https://bit.ly/38iNrur

You will hear from our lawyers:

Via The Hill’s Morgan Chalfant, “President Trump’s campaign is taking a series of steps to challenge the election results or halt the vote tabulation process in a number of states as the incumbent’s path to reelection narrows.” https://bit.ly/38cEKlh

The states Trump is targeting: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia.

HOW THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN REACTED WHEN FOX NEWS CALLED ARIZONA FOR BIDEN:

Via The New York Times’s Annie Karni and Maggie HabermanMaggie Lindsy HabermanThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by the UAE Embassy in Washington, DC - Trump OKs transition; Biden taps Treasury, State experience Maggie Haberman to pen book about Trump's life and legacy Pence to spend time in Florida as Trump refuses to concede MOREhttps://nyti.ms/38e3JVr

FROM THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN

What Biden has been tweeting:

At 8:25 a.m. EST: “Every vote must be counted.” The short video attachedhttps://bit.ly/3euWCJj 

At 10:10 p.m. EST yesterday: “Donald Trump does not decide the outcome of this election and nor do I. The American people decide. That’s why we’ve launched the Biden Fight Fund — to ensure every vote is counted.” Biden’s full fundraising messagehttps://bit.ly/32jsVWW

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS AS VOTES ARE COUNTED

The scene in Philadelphia outside where the votes are countedhttps://bit.ly/2TVURLR 

This is getting pretty tense

 

 

Watchhttps://bit.ly/34XbsVV

Ugh: “Maricopa County Sheriff’s deputies now ready in tactical gear inside the elections center to potentially make a move on the protesters and demonstrators outside as the crowd continues to grow.” Watchhttps://bit.ly/38ryarx

Screenshot of the actual lawsuit the Trump campaign filed in Michiganhttps://bit.ly/3jU9LNe

“Stop the count” protests: “Election challengers shout ‘Stop the count’ as poll workers count absentee ballots in #Detroit, Michigan in the 2020 general election” (Video from The Washington Post’s Salwan Georges) Watchhttps://bit.ly/34XGVqQ 

Also getting traction — with nearly 11 million views

 

 

Watchhttps://bit.ly/3jZHmFq 

Lol, I’ve been humming the NBC election music for months so I’m not one to talk: Journalist Lizzie O’Leary tweeted, “I just overheard my husband singing the Key Race Alert music to the baby.” https://bit.ly/352ietE

IN CONGRESS

Cheri BustosCheryl (Cheri) Lea BustosDemocratic Women's Caucus members split endorsements for House campaign chief Rep. Rick Allen tests positive for COVID-19 Maloney vows to overhaul a House Democratic campaign machine 'stuck in the past' MORE just won her reelection fight:

Via The Hill’s Juliegrace Brufke, “Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the head of House Democrats’ campaign arm, is projected to win reelection after a competitive challenge from Republican Esther Joy King in the battle for Illinois’s 17th District.” https://bit.ly/2HYPg5e 

When The Associated Press called the race: At 10:15 a.m. EST.

Who else is worried about Congress’s laundry list for the rest of the year?:

Via The Hill’s Jordain Carney, “Uncertainty is hanging over the congressional year-end agenda as Washington waits to see who will win the White House and Senate majority and tries to gauge President Trump’s willingness to cut big deals if he loses.” https://bit.ly/38eL5wP

What’s on the list

- A coronavirus relief package

- A government funding bill by Dec. 11 to avoid a shutdown

- A fight over Confederate-named bases

THE FEELING IN THE SENATE:

Via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton, Senate Democrats are feeling frustrated in the fight for control of the Senate, while Republicans are jubilant. https://bit.ly/3euYUrT  

CENTRIST DEMS TALK HOUSE LEADERSHIP CHANGE:

https://bit.ly/2JFaBkx

Shaking up what it means to be red and blue:

Via The Hill’s Reid Wilson, “Voters delivered a decidedly mixed result up and down the ballot on Tuesday in closely fought battles for the White House and House and Senate seats in critical suburban precincts across the country. The results … will illustrate the deep and abiding political divide that has riven the nation.” https://bit.ly/2U9vNkN

The divide that is being more apparent: The divide “breaks along partisan lines that are increasingly defined by race, education and socioeconomic status in a realignment that is still shaking out.”

Five House races that show the future of coalitions: Minnesota’s 7th District, Oregon’s 4th District, Wisconsin’s 3rd District, Nebraska’s 1st District and Georgia’s 7th District 

Why those five — explanations for eachhttps://bit.ly/2U9vNkN

MEANWHILE WITH THE CORONAVIRUS

Coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 9,499,459 

U.S. death toll: 233,836 

Breakdown of the numbershttps://cnn.it/2UAgW3y

Hey coronavirus, READ THE ROOM.:

Via CNN’s Christina Maxouris, “The US recorded a staggering 102,831 new Covid-19 infections Wednesday -- the first time since the start of the pandemic it has reported a six-figure number.” https://cnn.it/3l00Ta4

NOTABLE TWEETS:

Lol — It’s pretty impressive:

 

 

Hyperlink https://bit.ly/36aj72i 

 

It’s been a long week:

 

 

Watchhttps://bit.ly/36mQ9N9

ON TAP:

The House and Senate are out.

President Trump has no public events scheduled. 

Vice President Pence has no public events scheduled.

WHAT TO WATCH:

This morning: Georgia officials gave an update on the ballot count. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/38gAkdo

11:30 a.m. EST: The Trump campaign gave an update from Las Vegas. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/36btvH8 

12:15 p.m. EDT: Pennsylvania officials give an update on the election count. Livestreamhttps://cs.pn/32hwQmT

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...:

Today is National Doughnut Day! You better believe I’m celebrating this one.

And to make you smile during this never-ending week, here’s a puppy who is best friends with a rooster: https://bit.ly/362DpLg