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Pundit predictions for 2022 midterms: Who will win?

Voters cast their ballots under a giant mural
Associated Press/Steve Helber
Voters cast their ballots under a giant mural at Robious Elementary School in Midlothian, Va., on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2020.

Grover Norquist

president of Americans for Tax Reform

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +33

Who will win control of the Senate? GOP

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +4

Who will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? Mehmet Oz

Who will win the Senate race in Nevada? Adam Laxalt

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Ron Johnson

Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire? Don Bolduc

Who will win the governor race in Oregon? Christine Drazan

Who will win the governor race in Arizona? Kari Lake

Analysis: Voters care about the cost of energy, President Biden’s inflation outpacing pay hikes and their damaged IRA and 401(k) life savings. There are more “impressions” of these every day for voters than any political ads can counter. Voters do not appreciate higher rates of rape, murder and carjackings. Voters who do not like Biden noted that all Democrats in the House and Senate voted in lockstep with Biden. Democrats fooled themselves into thinking support for Roe  v. Wade was support for abortion until birth.

Maria Cardona

head of Dewey Square Group’s Public Affairs Practice and Democratic strategist

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +10-15

Who will win control of the Senate? Democrats

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? Democrats +1-2 (Tim Ryan could pull it off)

Who will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? John Fetterman

Who will win the Senate race in Nevada? Catherine Cortez Masto

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Probably Ron Johnson 

Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire? Maggie Hassan

Who will win the governor race in Oregon? Tina Kotek 

Who will win the governor race in Arizona? Kari Lake, tragically

Analysis: Record early voter turnout plus a lead for Democrats of more than 4.5 million votes points to tremendous enthusiasm for Democrats in an election that, given history, Biden’s approval, the Republicans’ focus on inflation and crime, and conventional wisdom, should have been a slam dunk for the GOP. It is not. There is no red wave. 

Brent Budowsky 

columnist for The Hill and aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Rep. Bill Alexander (D-Ark.)

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +12 

Who will win control of the Senate? Democrats

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? None, 50-50 Senate

Who will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? John Fetterman

Who will win the Senate race in Nevada? Catherine Cortez Masto 

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Ron Johnson

Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire? Maggie Hassan

Who will win the governor race in Oregon? Tina Kotek

Who will win the governor race in Arizona? Katie Hobbs

Analysis: Very hard election to predict. Take Wisconsin. I hope I am wrong predicting Johnson, who is highly unpopular and has run a racially divisive campaign. Will there be an eleventh-hour surge for Mandela Barnes? Could be. Many Democrats are coming home. Governor races in New York and Oregon, blue state reps, some key Senate races. Will deep economic angst poorly addressed by Dems cost seats? Yes. How many? Who knows? Will probably be some shocking upsets in both directions. 2024 campaign will be political thermonuclear war.

Armstrong Williams

host of “The Armstrong Williams Show”

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +30

Who will win control of the Senate?  GOP

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP + 3

Who will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? Mehmet Oz

Who will win the Senate race in New Mexico? Adam Laxalt

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Ron Johnson

Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire? Don Bolduc

Who will win the governor’s race in Oregon? Christine Drazan

Who will win the governor’s race in Arizona? Kari Lake

Analysis: This election will yield big GOP gains largely because blue collar workers are revolting in the Northeast and siding with GOP candidates and a massive wave of Hispanic voters shifting to Republican candidates particularly in the border states and/or where immigration figures prominently. 

Matt Schlapp 

chairman of the American Conservative Union 

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +38

Who will win control of the Senate? GOP

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +3

Who will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? Mehmet Oz

Who will win the Senate race in Nevada? Adam Laxalt

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Ron Johnson

Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire? Don Bolduc

Who will win the governor race in Oregon? Toss-up!

Who will win the governor race in Arizona? Kari Lake

Analysis: We have gone through three strange election cycles that lead to a couple of obvious conclusions: The American people don’t want socialism economically or culturally; fake news produces fake polls; Trump may not be in the White House, but Biden is politically powerless.

What we now see is Trump’s endorsement and active support is the most impactful dynamic in American politics. We will see candidates he endorsed in competitive primaries win in tough states. MAGA 2.0 is working.

Alice Stewart

CNN political commentator who has worked on GOP presidential campaigns 

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP will win 230 seats

Who will win control of the Senate? GOP

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +1

Who will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? Mehmet Oz

Who will win the Senate race in Nevada? Catherine Cortez Masto

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Ron Johnson

Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire? Don Bolduc

Who will win the governor race in Oregon? Tina Kotek

Who will win the governor race in Arizona? Kari Lake

Analysis: The bad economy is the big elephant in the room, and Democrats miscalculated by not focusing on pocketbook issues months ago. They spent too much time messaging on abortion and threats to democracy while the American people are struggling to make ends meet. While I disagree with those who claim there is widespread voter fraud, attacking them is not a winning midterm message. The silver lining in all of this is that we are seeing record voter turnout, a sign that our great democracy is alive and well. 

Bill Press

columnist for The Hill and host of “The Bill Press Pod”

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats will GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +6-10

Who will win control of the Senate? Democrats

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? Democrats +2

Who will win the Senate race in Nevada? Catherine Cortez Masto

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Ron Johnson

Who will win the governor race in Oregon? Tina Kotek

Who will win the governor race in Arizona? Katie Hobbs

Analysis: Tuesday’s returns will show two things. One, Republicans blew their chance to take back the Senate by fielding the most unqualified, not-fit-for-prime-time slate of Senate candidates in history. Two, most political reporters swallowed Republican propaganda and overplayed stories of a GOP wave election. 

Richard Fowler

Democratic strategist and a Fox News contributor

Who will win control of the House? GOP

How many House seats with GOP/Dems pick up? GOP +5-10 

Who will win control of the Senate? Democrats

How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up? None, 50-50 Senate

Who will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? John Fetterman

Who will win the Senate race in Nevada? Adam Laxalt

Who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Mandela Barnes

Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire? Maggie Hassan

Who will win the governor race in Oregon? Tina Kotek

Who will win the governor race in Arizona? Kari Lake

Analysis: While I think it is likely that the Democratic Party will hold the Senate, the midterm election results for the party are a clear example of unforced errors. Starting with an unclear closing message and an unwillingness to fold of the cornerstone of the party — African Americans and young voters — the party’s national coordination has waffled at a time when it should have been solid. Working in the Democratic Party’s favor has been the oversized impact of former President Trump during this cycle. 

Tags 2022 midterm elections Biden Ron Johnson tina kotek
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