FiveThirtyEight forecast has Dems picking up governor's seats in November

FiveThirtyEight forecast has Dems picking up governor's seats in November
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Democrats are likely to pick up a handful of governor seats in November, according to a new forecast from data analysis site FiveThirtyEight.

The forecast predicts Democratic governors will be in charge in 23 or 24 states, with Republicans holding the remaining 26 or 27 states.


Republicans currently hold 33 governor's seats, with 16 held by Democrats. Alaska Gov. Bill Walker is an independent.

Voters will go to the polls in November to decide 36 gubernatorial races. Republicans have the governorship in 26 of those states, while Democrats hold nine governor's seats. Walker is also up for reelection.

Even though Republicans are projected to hold more governor's seats than Democrats after Election Day, FiveThirtyEight forecasts that Democratic governors will govern almost 60 percent of the U.S. population. Republicans are expected to do well in states with smaller populations, such as Wyoming and South Dakota.

The forecast lists three states as toss-ups: Georgia, Nevada and Ohio.

Three other states are listed as "leaning" toward either the Democratic or Republican nominee. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is a slight underdog to Democratic challenger Tony Evers in that race, while Democrat Andrew Gillum in Florida and Republican Kris Kobach in Kansas each have a slight edge over their respective opponent, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The forecast's results are based on polling and a series of other factors, including fundraising, past voting and historical trends.

The gubernatorial forecasts are the latest prognostications published by FiveThirtyEight. Earlier prediction models for the Nov. 6 elections favored Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate.