Five takeaways from Trump’s Supreme Court announcement

President TrumpDonald TrumpMeghan McCain: Democrats 'should give a little credit' to Trump for COVID-19 vaccine Trump testing czar warns lockdowns may be on table if people don't get vaccinated Overnight Health Care: CDC details Massachusetts outbreak that sparked mask update | White House says national vaccine mandate 'not under consideration at this time' MORE put feverish speculation to an end on Monday night when he nominated Brett Kavanaugh, a 53-year-old appellate judge from the District of Columbia Circuit, to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Here are five big takeaways from the announcement.

Trump was at his most conventional

The president takes pleasure in transgressing norms in other areas of political debate, but the Supreme Court seems to bring out his most conventional side.

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Last year’s nomination of Neil Gorsuch to fill the vacancy left by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia showed Trump playing by the established rules with uncommon discipline.

The same was true on Monday, when he nominated Kavanaugh with a speech that took in all the usual touchstones and never veered off script. It also included admiring comments from the purportedly anti-elitist Trump about his nominee’s educational and teaching background, which encompasses Yale, Harvard and Georgetown.

The pick itself is an orthodox, if conservative, one. Kavanaugh is well-regarded in D.C. legal circles. He worked for the administration of President George W. Bush and was on the list of 25 potential candidates drawn up by the conservative Federalist Society in conjunction with the White House.

Even Republicans who are often deeply critical of Trump praised the choice. 

“A conservative can be a fierce critic of Trump on many key matters and still acknowledge he made an outstanding [Supreme Court] pick,” tweeted one such critic, Peter Wehner, a veteran of several past GOP administrations.  

“The Rule of Law is our nation’s proud heritage,” Trump said at the White House. “It is the cornerstone of our freedom. It is what guarantees equal justice.”

This was a very different face of the president who, in the first weeks of his presidency, had lambasted the “so-called judge” who blocked the first iteration of his travel ban.

Battle lines are drawn, but what about red-state Dems?

There was never any real doubt that, whomever Trump picked, it would please his base and outrage his liberal critics. 

Some left-of-center organizations had announced plans for protest rallies before Trump announced his choice, seeing all the shortlisted candidates as hard-line conservatives who could threaten abortion rights and affect other hot-button issues.

Several potential 2020 presidential contenders spoke at a rally outside the Supreme Court, including Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenCalifornia Democrats warn of low turnout in recall election Pelosi disputes Biden's power to forgive student loans Warren hits the airwaves for Newsom ahead of recall election MORE (D-Mass.), Bernie SandersBernie SandersAngst grips America's most liberal city Democrats warn shrinking Biden's spending plan could backfire Democrats say they have the votes to advance .5T budget measure MORE (I-Vt.) and Cory BookerCory BookerHuman rights can't be a sacrificial lamb for climate action Senate Democrats press administration on human rights abuses in Philippines Juan Williams: Biden's child tax credit is a game-changer MORE (D-N.J.). 

The political calculus here is clear: all the political incentives for 2020 Democratic contenders favor opposing Trump’s pick as fiercely as possible, since anything less would likely be treated with suspicion by the party’s grass-roots supporters.

The dynamics are much more complicated for Senate Democrats running for reelection in states Trump won by significant margins in 2016. 

Three of those senators — Indiana’s Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellySupreme Court battle could wreak havoc with Biden's 2020 agenda Republicans fret over divisive candidates Everybody wants Joe Manchin MORE, North Dakota’s Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampJoe Manchin's secret Supreme Court battle could wreak havoc with Biden's 2020 agenda Effective and profitable climate solutions are within the nation's farms and forests MORE and West Virginia’s Joe ManchinJoe ManchinDemocrats warn shrinking Biden's spending plan could backfire Top Democrat: 'A lot of spin' coming from White House on infrastructure An August ultimatum: No recess until redistricting reform is done MORE — voted to confirm Gorsuch last year. All three were invited to the White House ceremony; all three declined.

Their public statements since Kavanaugh was announced have been circumspect. Donnelly said that he would “carefully review and consider” his record. Heitkamp and Manchin struck a similar tone.

How those senators vote could be vital for their own chances for reelection. 

Given the razor-thin math in the Senate — Republicans have a 50-49 advantage in the absence of the seriously ill Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainMeghan McCain to produce 'Don't Sweat the Small Stuff' Lifetime movie starring Heather Locklear An August ultimatum: No recess until redistricting reform is done Meghan McCain on Pelosi, McCarthy fight: 'I think they're all bad' MORE (R-Ariz.) — they could also be crucial to whether Kavanaugh is ultimately confirmed. 

A rebuke to McConnell

Tensions between Trump loyalists and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden sets new vaccine mandate as COVID-19 cases surge Democrats warn shrinking Biden's spending plan could backfire Trump takes two punches from GOP MORE (R-Ky.) are rarely far from the surface.

They emerged again here. Despite Kavanaugh’s establishment credentials, McConnell was reported to have advocated for two other figures on Trump’s shortlist, Thomas Hardiman and Raymond Kethledge, arguing that they could be easily and promptly confirmed by the Senate.

His input roiled some of those close to Trump, who believed Kavanaugh had almost had his hands on the prize when McConnell intervened. From the same quarters, there was satisfaction that the president in the end bucked the majority leader’s advice.

It’s hardly a serious setback for McConnell — Kavanaugh’s record contains nothing to discomfort him — but it does again expose the difficult wrinkles in the Trump-McConnell relationship.

Beware the long paper trail

Kavanaugh’s career, encompassing a stretch working for Kenneth Starr during the Monica Lewinsky scandal as well as his service in the Bush White House, will have generated a lengthy paper trail.

This was one of the reasons why McConnell is understood to have made the case for other candidates — with less documentation marking their every move, there could be less chance for some unexpected revelation upending the process.

Democrats will scour Kavanaugh’s record looking for issues that might be able to fire up their own base — and also ratchet up the pressure on the Republicans most likely to vote against Kavanaugh: Sens. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsTop Democrat: 'A lot of spin' coming from White House on infrastructure Bill would honor Ginsburg, O'Connor with statues at Capitol The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - US gymnast wins all-around gold as Simone Biles cheers from the stands MORE (Maine), Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiBill would honor Ginsburg, O'Connor with statues at Capitol The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - US gymnast wins all-around gold as Simone Biles cheers from the stands The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - A huge win for Biden, centrist senators MORE (Alaska) and perhaps even Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - A huge win for Biden, centrist senators Only two people cited by TSA for mask violations have agreed to pay fine Senators reach billion deal on emergency Capitol security bill MORE (Ky.).

The president and his Republican colleagues want Kavanaugh confirmed as fast as possible, knowing that November’s midterm elections pose serious challenges. 

Democrats will dig in, in the hope of frustrating that effort.

Trump kept a secret

The president is often blasted for a lack of discipline, a critique that is voiced — at least in private — by many members of his own party.

There was no evidence of that when it came to the Kavanaugh nomination. 

The normally loquacious president said little in the days leading up to making his pick, beyond positive generalizations about his shortlist. His leak-prone administration offered no clues.

In the end, the first reports that Kavanaugh had been chosen came only minutes before the judge joined the president in the East Room of the White House.

It was an unusual display of restraint — and, in the eyes of many in the GOP, a welcome one.