The Memo: Could Pence run and win in 2024?

Vice President Pence is in the top class of 2024 GOP contenders as the Trump era nears its end.

The firm expectation across the Republican Party is that Pence will be a candidate in 2024, unless Trump runs again.

A Pence candidacy would have clear assets. Pence has given loyal service to Trump throughout the last four years, even as his personal demeanor is many miles removed from the president’s.

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Theoretically, that would enable Pence to hold onto the Trump base while having a more expansive appeal. Pence’s boosters believe that he could do better with the white, college-educated suburban voters who broke away from Trump, with electorally decisive effects, in November’s election.

But there are plenty of GOP doubters when it comes to Pence’s chances of prevailing, too.

The skeptics question each pillar of the pro-Pence argument. 

They are dubious about his chance of bringing Trump voters to his side in a Republican primary, especially if other candidates are competing for that same swathe of voters.

Pence’s chances of holding “MAGA Country” against more colorful figures like Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzGolden State Warriors owner says 'nobody cares' about Uyghurs All hostages free, safe after hours-long standoff at Texas synagogue: governor Overnight Energy & Environment — Lummis holds up Biden EPA picks MORE (R-Texas) or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantisRon DeSantisThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Djokovic may not compete in French Open over vaccine requirement 'Morning Joe' hosts mock Trump Conservative pundit Ann Coulter says Trump 'is done' MORE (R), are middling at best, they say. 

Conversely, while Pence’s deep roots in the evangelical movement are an advantage in a Republican primary, his socially conservative strain of Christianity could limit his appeal to moderate voters.

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It is questionable whether college-educated suburbanites will rally to a man with a deeply conservative view of LGBT issues and who famously refuses to dine alone with any woman other than his wife.

More broadly, there is the question of whether Pence really has the charisma and pizazz to mount a successful presidential bid of his own. 

He won six terms as an Indiana congressman and served one term as the state’s governor. But his performance in that one statewide election, in 2012, was hardly spectacular. He won his race by 3 points on the same day GOP presidential nominee Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt Romney​​Democrats make voting rights push ahead of Senate consideration Sunday shows - Voting rights legislation dominates Clyburn says he 'wholeheartedly' endorses Biden's voting rights remarks MORE carried Indiana by almost 9 points.

“It’s going to be a jammed field and he hasn’t really wow-ed anyone. He hasn’t really distinguished himself,” said one GOP strategist who requested anonymity to candidly discuss Pence’s chances.

Casting doubt on Pence’s ability to recreate Trump’s coalition of support, this strategist added: “He’s not a populist. He was put on the ticket because he is a Christian conservative — that’s where his lane is. But Ted Cruz came fairly close to winning from there last time, and he’s not to be discounted. So Pence has to prove that he can outmaneuver Ted at his own game, which is not easy to do.”

Pence’s White House ambitions are muted because of the complexities of the current moment.

Trump continues to falsely insist that he won this year’s election. 

Pence, in turn, has sought to provide support for his boss, while not getting too deeply into the specifics of what should be done.

At a conference of the young conservative group Turning Point USA on Tuesday, Pence insisted that the “election contest continues” and that the Trump team would “keep fighting until every legal vote is counted. We’re going to keep fighting until every illegal vote is thrown out.” 

Despite such public proclamations of support, however, Axios reported on Tuesday that Trump had grown displeased with several people in his inner circle — including Pence, whom the president reportedly felt was “not fighting hard enough for him.”

All of that makes it impossible for Pence to position himself explicitly for 2024.

Many Republicans say it is important not to underestimate Pence’s chances, all the same.

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“It all depends on whether Donald TrumpDonald TrumpSanders calls out Manchin, Sinema ahead of filibuster showdown Laura Ingraham 'not saying' if she'd support Trump in 2024 The Hill's 12:30 Report: Djokovic may not compete in French Open over vaccine requirement MORE runs, but obviously [Pence] has the support of social conservatives and fiscal conservatives — plus being the vice-president to Donald Trump for four years is a real bonus,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “He is a very strong candidate.”

Matt Mackowiak, a county GOP chairman in Texas, said that he believed Pence was “going to be a major factor in 2024. He has a national profile, and he is going to be able to raise money. He may be able to hold much of the Trump base while reaching out more broadly.”

There are other complications for Pence, however. He was the administration’s lead figure on the coronavirus task force. The White House response to the pandemic has been widely criticized and, even though most of the blame has accrued to Trump, Pence’s involvement could be a liability.

The GOP strategist who wanted to remain anonymous also pointed out that loyalty to Trump is only likely to get any 2024 candidate so far, given that other figures who serve or served in the administration are also widely expected to run. 

Secretary of State Mike PompeoMike PompeoRussia suggests military deployments to Cuba, Venezuela an option The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Altria - Winter is here for Democrats Overnight Defense & National Security — Nuclear states say no winners in global war MORE and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki HaleyNikki HaleyThe 10 Republicans most likely to run for president Will — or should — Kamala Harris become the Spiro Agnew of 2022? Haley has 'positive' meeting with Trump MORE are two of the names most often mentioned.

“I do think Pence is going to run, but the race is going to have Haley, it’s going to have Pompeo,” the strategist said. 

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“It would be like the Bush presidency ending and Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld all running.”

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.