Former President TrumpDonald TrumpHeadaches intensify for Democrats in Florida Stormy Daniels set to testify against former lawyer Avenatti in fraud trial Cheney challenger wins Wyoming Republican activists' straw poll MORE leads President BidenJoe BidenUS threatens sweeping export controls against Russian industries Headaches intensify for Democrats in Florida US orders families of embassy staff in Ukraine to leave country MORE by 11 points in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up in Iowa, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted by Selzer & Co. as well as the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, found that 51 percent of likely Iowa voters would support Trump in the 2024 election, while 40 percent said they would back Biden.
Four percent of respondents said they would not vote for either of the candidates, and 5 percent said they remain unsure.
Trump won Iowa and its six Electoral College votes in 2020 by 8.2 percentage points. He also won the Hawkeye State in 2016, besting Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonNo Hillary — the 'Third Way' is the wrong way The dangerous erosion of Democratic Party foundations The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Democrats see victory in a voting rights defeat MORE by 9.4 points.
Trump’s lead in the new poll appears to be driven by support from independents in the state, who broke for the Republican 45 percent to 37 percent. Biden has 95 percent support among Democrats, while 91 percent of Republicans are backing Trump.
The poll comes as speculation continues to swirl regarding whether Trump will ultimately decide to jump into the 2024 presidential race. The former commander in chief has publicly flirted with the possibility of another bid but has not yet announced one.
The new survey also comes amid a string of poor polling numbers for Biden, whose approval rating has slumped since this summer, partially due to a resurgence of COVID-19, the U.S.’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising prices throughout the nation.
Biden in March said he expects to run for reelection in 2024, telling reporters, “My plan is to run for reelection. That’s my expectation.”
The Iowa poll, conducted between Nov. 7 and Nov. 10, surveyed 658 likely voters in the state. The margin of error is 3.8 percentage points.