Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota

Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota
© Greg Nash

Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE (D-N.D.) was 12 points behind challenger Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerThe Hill's Coronavirus Report: iBIO Chairman and CEO Thomas Isett says developing a safe vaccine is paramount; US surpasses 150,000 coronavirus deaths with roughy one death per minute McConnell tees up showdown on unemployment benefits Senate panel scraps confirmation hearing for controversial Pentagon nominee at last minute MORE (R-N.D.), according to a poll released Wednesday, the second survey in as many days showing her trailing by a double-digit margin.

A Fox News poll showed that 53 percent of likely voters in North Dakota back Cramer, while 41 percent support Heitkamp, who is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection.

The poll showed Heitkamp's support has fallen, given a Fox News poll conducted earlier in September had showed her trailing Cramer by 44 to 48 percent.

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Still, independents favor Heitkamp over Cramer, 55-29, according to the latest Fox News poll. 

The poll also showed a large gender disparity. Men said they back Cramer by a 20 point margin, but support Cramer over Heitkamp more narrowly, or by 49-45.

Wednesday’s poll surveyed 704 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Wednesday's was the second poll this week to show Heitkamp trailing by a wide margin. A Gray TV poll released Tuesday found Cramer leading Heitkamp by 10 points.

The polls come amid signs that Heitkamp's vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh could prove critical to her reelection prospects.

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Kavanaugh's nomination has been roiled after he faced allegations of sexual misconduct from three separate women. He has strongly denied the accusations.

Heitkamp is considered a key swing vote in Kavanaugh's confirmaton, along with Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinHillicon Valley: Facebook removes Trump post | TikTok gets competitor | Lawmakers raise grid safety concerns OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Court cancels shutdown of Dakota Access Pipeline | US could avoid 4.5M early deaths by fighting climate change, study finds | Officials warn of increasing cyber threats to critical infrastructure during pandemic Officials warn of increasing cyber threats to critical infrastructure during pandemic MORE (D-W.Va.), Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's visit to battleground Ohio overshadowed by coronavirus New polls show tight races for Graham, McConnell McConnell goes hands-off on coronavirus relief bill MORE (R-Maine), Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiOn The Money: Pessimism grows as coronavirus talks go down to the wire | Jobs report poised to light fire under COVID-19 talks | Tax preparers warn unemployment recipients could owe IRS Pessimism grows as coronavirus talks go down to the wire Hillicon Valley: Facebook removes Trump post | TikTok gets competitor | Lawmakers raise grid safety concerns MORE (R-Alaska) and Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeCheney clashes with Trump Sessions-Tuberville Senate runoff heats up in Alabama GOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism MORE (R-Ariz.).

None of those lawmakers has indicated how they will vote.

Among likely voters in Wednesday's poll, 17 percent said they would be more likely to support Heitkamp if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh, while 34 percent said they would be less likely to vote for her if she rejects the judge. 

The Gray TV poll on Tuesday had showed 60 percent of North Dakota voters supporting Kavanaugh.