Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota

Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota
© Greg Nash

Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampLobbying World Pro-trade group targets Democratic leadership in push for new NAFTA On The Money: Stocks sink on Trump tariff threat | GOP caught off guard by new trade turmoil | Federal deficit grew 38 percent this fiscal year | Banks avoid taking position in Trump, Dem subpoena fight MORE (D-N.D.) was 12 points behind challenger Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerThe Hill's Morning Report — Trump pushes Mexico for 'significantly more' as tariffs loom The Hill's Morning Report — Trump pushes Mexico for 'significantly more' as tariffs loom Overnight Health Care: Liberals rip Democratic leaders for writing drug pricing bill in secret | Dems demand answers from company that shelters migrant kids | Measles cases top 1,000 MORE (R-N.D.), according to a poll released Wednesday, the second survey in as many days showing her trailing by a double-digit margin.

A Fox News poll showed that 53 percent of likely voters in North Dakota back Cramer, while 41 percent support Heitkamp, who is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection.

The poll showed Heitkamp's support has fallen, given a Fox News poll conducted earlier in September had showed her trailing Cramer by 44 to 48 percent.

Still, independents favor Heitkamp over Cramer, 55-29, according to the latest Fox News poll. 

The poll also showed a large gender disparity. Men said they back Cramer by a 20 point margin, but support Cramer over Heitkamp more narrowly, or by 49-45.

Wednesday’s poll surveyed 704 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Wednesday's was the second poll this week to show Heitkamp trailing by a wide margin. A Gray TV poll released Tuesday found Cramer leading Heitkamp by 10 points.

The polls come amid signs that Heitkamp's vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh could prove critical to her reelection prospects.

Kavanaugh's nomination has been roiled after he faced allegations of sexual misconduct from three separate women. He has strongly denied the accusations.

Heitkamp is considered a key swing vote in Kavanaugh's confirmaton, along with Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinCritics say Interior's top lawyer came 'close to perjury' during Hill testimony Critics say Interior's top lawyer came 'close to perjury' during Hill testimony The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by MAPRx — Trump takes heat for remarks on help from foreign governments MORE (D-W.Va.), Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsOvernight Defense: US to send 1K more troops to Mideast amid Iran tensions | Iran threatens to break limit on uranium production in 10 days | US accuses Iran of 'nuclear blackmail' | Details on key defense bill amendments Overnight Defense: US to send 1K more troops to Mideast amid Iran tensions | Iran threatens to break limit on uranium production in 10 days | US accuses Iran of 'nuclear blackmail' | Details on key defense bill amendments Senators revive effort to create McCain human rights commission MORE (R-Maine), Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiHillicon Valley: Hacker group targeted electric grid | House Democrats press CBP over facial recognition program | Senators offer bill to protect health data | Groups file FCC complaint over carriers' use of location data Hillicon Valley: Hacker group targeted electric grid | House Democrats press CBP over facial recognition program | Senators offer bill to protect health data | Groups file FCC complaint over carriers' use of location data Klobuchar, Murkowski introduce legislation to protect consumer health data MORE (R-Alaska) and Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeDemocrats needle GOP on standing up to Trump Democrats needle GOP on standing up to Trump Amash gets standing ovation at first town hall after calling for Trump's impeachment MORE (R-Ariz.).

None of those lawmakers has indicated how they will vote.

Among likely voters in Wednesday's poll, 17 percent said they would be more likely to support Heitkamp if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh, while 34 percent said they would be less likely to vote for her if she rejects the judge. 

The Gray TV poll on Tuesday had showed 60 percent of North Dakota voters supporting Kavanaugh.