Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota

Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota
© Greg Nash

Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampPence to push new NAFTA deal in visit to Iowa Al Franken says he 'absolutely' regrets resigning Trump nominees meet fiercest opposition from Warren, Sanders, Gillibrand MORE (D-N.D.) was 12 points behind challenger Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerCastro, Steyer join pledge opposing the Keystone XL pipeline EPA proposes rolling back states' authority over pipeline projects GOP senator held up Trump aide's confirmation to get info on border wall contracts MORE (R-N.D.), according to a poll released Wednesday, the second survey in as many days showing her trailing by a double-digit margin.

A Fox News poll showed that 53 percent of likely voters in North Dakota back Cramer, while 41 percent support Heitkamp, who is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection.

The poll showed Heitkamp's support has fallen, given a Fox News poll conducted earlier in September had showed her trailing Cramer by 44 to 48 percent.

Still, independents favor Heitkamp over Cramer, 55-29, according to the latest Fox News poll. 

The poll also showed a large gender disparity. Men said they back Cramer by a 20 point margin, but support Cramer over Heitkamp more narrowly, or by 49-45.

Wednesday’s poll surveyed 704 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Wednesday's was the second poll this week to show Heitkamp trailing by a wide margin. A Gray TV poll released Tuesday found Cramer leading Heitkamp by 10 points.

The polls come amid signs that Heitkamp's vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh could prove critical to her reelection prospects.

Kavanaugh's nomination has been roiled after he faced allegations of sexual misconduct from three separate women. He has strongly denied the accusations.

Heitkamp is considered a key swing vote in Kavanaugh's confirmaton, along with Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump awards Medal of Freedom to NBA legend Bob Cousy Overnight Energy: Green groups sue Trump over Endangered Species Act changes | Bureau of Land Management retirees fight plan to relocate agency | Wildfires in Amazon rainforest burn at record rate Bureau of Land Management retirees fight plan to relocate agency out west MORE (D-W.Va.), Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsOvernight Health Care: Insurance lobby chief calls Biden, Sanders health plans 'similarly bad' | Trump officials appeal drug price disclosure ruling | Study finds 1 in 7 people ration diabetes medicine due to cost Collins downplays 2020 threat: 'Confident' reelection would go well if she runs Cook Political Report moves Susan Collins Senate race to 'toss up' MORE (R-Maine), Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiOvernight Energy: Green groups sue Trump over Endangered Species Act changes | Bureau of Land Management retirees fight plan to relocate agency | Wildfires in Amazon rainforest burn at record rate Bureau of Land Management retirees fight plan to relocate agency out west The Hill's Morning Report - Progressives, centrists clash in lively Democratic debate MORE (R-Alaska) and Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeAnti-gun violence organization endorses Kelly's Senate bid Arpaio considering running for former sheriff job after Trump pardon Overnight Energy: Warren edges past Sanders in poll of climate-focused voters | Carbon tax shows new signs of life | Greens fuming at Trump plans for development at Bears Ears monument MORE (R-Ariz.).

None of those lawmakers has indicated how they will vote.

Among likely voters in Wednesday's poll, 17 percent said they would be more likely to support Heitkamp if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh, while 34 percent said they would be less likely to vote for her if she rejects the judge. 

The Gray TV poll on Tuesday had showed 60 percent of North Dakota voters supporting Kavanaugh.