Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota

Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota
© Greg Nash

Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampDemocrats hold fading odds of winning Senate this November Florida politics play into disaster relief debate Cornyn: 'All the money in the world' won't help O'Rourke win Texas MORE (D-N.D.) was 12 points behind challenger Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerNative American tribe slams Supreme Court decision upholding North Dakota voter ID law The Hill's Morning Report — Presented by PhRMA — Dem path to a Senate majority narrows GOP sees new hope to expand Senate majority MORE (R-N.D.), according to a poll released Wednesday, the second survey in as many days showing her trailing by a double-digit margin.

A Fox News poll showed that 53 percent of likely voters in North Dakota back Cramer, while 41 percent support Heitkamp, who is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection.

The poll showed Heitkamp's support has fallen, given a Fox News poll conducted earlier in September had showed her trailing Cramer by 44 to 48 percent.

Still, independents favor Heitkamp over Cramer, 55-29, according to the latest Fox News poll. 

The poll also showed a large gender disparity. Men said they back Cramer by a 20 point margin, but support Cramer over Heitkamp more narrowly, or by 49-45.

Wednesday’s poll surveyed 704 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Wednesday's was the second poll this week to show Heitkamp trailing by a wide margin. A Gray TV poll released Tuesday found Cramer leading Heitkamp by 10 points.

The polls come amid signs that Heitkamp's vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh could prove critical to her reelection prospects.

Kavanaugh's nomination has been roiled after he faced allegations of sexual misconduct from three separate women. He has strongly denied the accusations.

Heitkamp is considered a key swing vote in Kavanaugh's confirmaton, along with Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinGillibrand backs Manchin, Bredesen despite their support of Kavanaugh Senate heads home to campaign after deal on Trump nominees Overnight Energy: Climate skeptic confirmed as DOJ environmental lawyer | EPA to phase out air pollution panel | Ad campaign targets mercury rule proposal MORE (D-W.Va.), Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsThe Kavanaugh debate was destructive tribalism on steroids: Here’s how we can stop it from happening again Conservative group launches ad campaign thanking Collins after Kavanaugh vote Democrats must end mob rule MORE (R-Maine), Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiMurkowski not worried about a Palin challenge Flake on Kavanaugh confirmation: To see GOP 'spiking the ball in the end zone' doesn't seem right GOP fractured over filling Supreme Court vacancies in 2020 MORE (R-Alaska) and Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeFlake: Congress should not continue Kavanaugh investigations Arizona congressional candidate robbed outside restaurant The Kavanaugh debate was destructive tribalism on steroids: Here’s how we can stop it from happening again MORE (R-Ariz.).

None of those lawmakers has indicated how they will vote.

Among likely voters in Wednesday's poll, 17 percent said they would be more likely to support Heitkamp if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh, while 34 percent said they would be less likely to vote for her if she rejects the judge. 

The Gray TV poll on Tuesday had showed 60 percent of North Dakota voters supporting Kavanaugh.