Campaign Polls

Poll: Dems have 4-point lead in battleground House districts

Democrats hold a 4-point advantage in dozens of battleground House districts, many of which are held by Republicans heading into next month’s midterm elections, according to a poll released Monday.

A Washington Post–Schar School poll of likely voters found that voters in 69 battleground districts support the Democratic nominee, while 46 percent back their Republican nominee. Of the 69 districts, 63 are currently GOP-held.

{mosads}The poll focused on districts that as of Aug. 24 were rated as either “toss-ups” or leaning toward one party by the Cook Political Report or identified by the Post as competitive.

Women strongly support Democrats in those districts, with 54 percent backing that party’s candidate and 40 percent supporting the Republican, according to the poll.

Among men, Republicans hold a 51-46 edge.

President Trump won 48 of the 69 districts in the 2016 presidential election. In those 48, the poll found that likely voters are nearly evenly split, with 48 percent saying they support the Democratic candidate and 47 percent preferring the GOP candidate.

In the 21 districts that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Democrats have a 10-point advantage, 53-43.

The poll surveyed 2,672 likely voters from Sept. 19 to Oct. 5. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Democrats have for months held a steady lead in generic congressional ballot polling, and a RealClearPolitics average of polls shows the party with a 6.6-point lead on the generic ballot.

However, Monday’s poll is different in that it provided respondents with the names of the major party candidates in their respective districts and focused on specific races.

Democrats are hoping for a blue wave to retake the majority in both chambers of Congress, while the GOP is hoping to maintain or build on its majorities.

Democrats must net 23 seats in the House to claim the majority and need a net gain of two seats in the Senate to do the same.

It is a tougher climb for the Democrats in the upper chamber, where the map is not as favorable. Democrats are defending 10 seats in states that Trump won in 2016.

Tags 2022 midterm elections battleground districts Donald Trump generic ballot Hillary Clinton House Senate

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