Campaign Polls

Poll: Heller leads by 2 points in Nevada Senate race

Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) holds a slim but statistically insignificant lead over Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) in the Nevada Senate race with a month left until Election Day, a poll released Tuesday found.

An NBC News/Marist poll shows Heller leading 46-44 percent among likely voters. The difference falls within the poll's margin of error of 5.5 points. Heller is considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection next month.

The poll found that independents favor Heller, 42-39 percent. The incumbent is also the preferred candidate among likely male voters by a 16-point margin.

Rosen holds an 11-point advantage among likely female voters.

Democrats also hold a narrow enthusiasm edge among likely voters, the poll found. Eighty-nine percent of likely Democratic voters view this year's midterms as "very important," compared to 82 percent of likely Republican voters who say the same.

In addition, 51 percent of likely voters said they will cast their vote to send a message for more Democrats to serve as a check on President Trump, while 39 percent said their vote will serve as a call for Republicans to advance the president's agenda.

While the poll was conducted days before Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed, it found that 38 percent of likely voters are more likely to support a candidate who voted for Kavanaugh, while 41 percent said they are less likely to do so.

Another 18 percent said the issue does not matter to their vote.

Heller was among the 50 senators who voted to confirm Kavanaugh last Saturday.

The NBC/Marist poll surveyed 574 likely voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3.

Trump has backed Heller and visited Nevada last month to stump for the incumbent and to attack Rosen, whom he has labeled "Wacky Jacky."

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, rates the Nevada race as a "toss-up." 

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