Campaign Polls

Poll: Dems hold slim lead in Arizona, Nevada Senate races

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A poll released Wednesday showed Democratic Senate candidates holding narrow leads in Arizona and Nevada, two states where Democrats have the best chance to pick up seats.

A CNN poll found Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) with a 4 point edge over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R). A separate CNN poll showed Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) leading Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) by 3 points.

{mosads}In Nevada, a state that Democrat Hillary Clinton narrowly won in the 2016 presidential election, Rosen leads Heller, 48 percent to 45 percent, among registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

The Nevada poll surveyed 807 registered voters from Oct. 24-29.

Seventy-eight percent of voters surveyed said they’ve made up their mind about who they plan to vote for on Nov. 6, while 20 percent said they might change their mind before casting a ballot.

An average of other polls in the Nevada race shows Heller leading by 1.7 points.

In Arizona, where voters have not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 30 years, Sinema leads McSally, 51 percent to 47 percent. That margin is down from September, when Sinema led by 7 points in a CNN poll.

Eighty-six percent of respondents said their mind is made up in the race, while 13 percent said they might still change their decision, according to the most recent poll.

RealClearPolitics average of all polls in the race shows Sinema leading by less than 1 point.

CNN’s Arizona poll surveyed 867 registered voters from Oct. 24-29, and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The two races are likely to play a decisive role in determining control of the Senate. To secure a majority, Democrats would likely have to win both states and retain all of their current seats on Election Day.

Both races are rated “toss-ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and have drawn in key figures from each party. President Trump held rallies in Arizona and Nevada earlier this month, and he has visited Nevada multiple times in support of Heller.

Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden stumped for Rosen in Nevada earlier this month. Obama has not visited Arizona, but has endorsed Sinema.

Tags Barack Obama Dean Heller Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Jacky Rosen Jeff Flake Joe Biden Martha McSally
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