Poll shows statistical tie in Montana Senate race

Montana Sen. Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David DainesRick Scott tests positive for coronavirus Biden eyes new leadership at troubled public lands agency OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Barrasso to seek top spot on Energy and Natural Resources Committee | Forest Service finalizes rule weakening environmental review of its projects | Biden to enlist Agriculture, Transportation agencies in climate fight MORE (R) and Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Down ballot races carry environmental implications | US officially exits Paris climate accord  GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte wins Montana governor's race Senate control in flux as counting goes forward in key states MORE (D) are in a dead heat in the state's Senate race, according to polling released Thursday by NBC Montana and Strategies 360.

The poll found Daines with 48 percent to Bullock’s 47 percent. Five percent were undecided. The survey also found 61 percent of respondents have already voted in the election. Mail-in ballots are an option for 45 of Montana’s 56 counties, and voters have already returned 289,422, or 45 percent, of those sent out.

The poll found an even tighter race for the state’s at-large House seat, with Republican candidate Matt Rosendale and Democratic candidate Kathleen Williams tied at 46 percent with 8 percent undecided.

New Strategies360/NBC Montana poll:

Trump 51
Biden 43

Senate
Daines (R-inc) 48
Bullock (D) 47

House
Rosendale (R) 46
Williams (D) 46

Gov
Gianforte (R) 48
Cooney (D) 41

(500 LVs, Oct 15-20, mixed mode, MoE 4.4%)https://t.co/8i4NR64EnS

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) October 22, 2020

The presidential race was less close but still within single digits, with President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE pulling 51 percent to Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE’s 43 percent. Four percent were undecided, while 3 percent supported Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen.

In the state’s open gubernatorial race, Rep. Greg GianforteGregory Richard GianforteGOP holds line in state legislatures, dealing blow to Democrats GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte wins Montana governor's race GOP's Rosendale wins Montana House seat MORE (R) leads Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D) 48 percent to 41 percent. Seven percent were undecided, while another 4 percent backed Libertarian candidate Lyman Bishop, according to the survey.

Pollsters surveyed 500 likely voters from Oct. 15-20. The survey has a 4.4-point margin of error.

The RealClear Politics average of Montana’s Senate race gives Daines a 2.8-point lead.