Biden holds edge in four key battleground states: poll

Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenFirst lady leaves Walter Reed after foot procedure Biden backs effort to include immigration in budget package MyPillow CEO to pull ads from Fox News MORE leads President TrumpDonald TrumpMyPillow CEO to pull ads from Fox News Haaland, Native American leaders press for Indigenous land protections Simone Biles, Vince Lombardi and the courage to walk away MORE in four battleground states in a poll released just two days before Election Day.

The New York Times/Siena College survey released Sunday found Biden leading by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, in Florida, by 6 points in Pennsylvania and Arizona, 49 to 43 percent each, and 11 points in Wisconsin, 52 to 41 percent.

The survey found Biden leading specifically among voters who did not vote in 2016, according to the Times. Those voters support Biden by a 19-point margin in Wisconsin, by 17 points in Florida, by 12 points in Pennsylvania and by 7 points in Arizona.


In three of the four states, a majority of respondents who did not vote in 2016 said they have already voted in 2020. Over two-thirds of 2016 nonvoters identified as likely voters in Arizona and Florida said they have already voted, compared to 36 percent in Wisconsin and 36 percent in Pennsylvania.

The survey also found a persistent gender gap between the candidates. While Trump led male respondents in Arizona by 8 points, Biden led among women in the state by 18 points. Biden also continues to win white, college-educated voters by wide margins, leading among those voters by double digits in Wisconsin, Arizona in Pennsylvania. In Florida, he leads the demographic by just 2 points.

Biden also leads among senior citizens by double digits in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Arizona and Florida, where a large portion of seniors are wealthier retirees from other states, the race is a dead heat among the age group.

Pollsters surveyed 1,451 likely voters in Florida, 1,862 in Pennsylvania, 1,253 in Wisconsin and 1,252 in Arizona. The polls have margins of error of 3.2 percentage points in Wisconsin and Florida, 3 points in Arizona and 2.4 points in Pennsylvania.