Campaign

Trump, Clinton vie for states still up for grabs

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The electoral map gives Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton room to breathe entering Election Day, as she and Republican Donald Trump make their closing arguments to swing-state voters who will determine the outcome.

{mosads}Here is the state of play in the battlegrounds that are up for grabs as Trump works furiously to turn some blue states red and pull off a Nov. 8 shocker:

 

Florida (29 electoral votes)

It looks once again like the outcome in the Sunshine State is headed for the wire. 

With more than 6 million ballots cast — almost half of the state’s registered voters — there is so far almost no separation between Democratic and Republican ballot totals.

The polls also show the race is a toss-up.

Democrats are bullish on their chances here based on Hispanic turnout. Twice as many — more than 1 million — have already voted in Florida in 2016 than did in all of 2012.

Trump must win in Florida to have a realistic shot at the White House.

 

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)

The Keystone State is the lynchpin of Trump’s Rust Belt strategy. 

If he can flip this traditionally blue state, it will open a world of new possible paths to the White House for him.

That has seemed unlikely for most of the cycle. But polls have closed fast in Pennsylvania, with Clinton’s lead reduced from 6 points on Nov. 1 to 2.8 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.

The Clinton campaign hopes to benefit from big get-out-the-vote concerts held here in the final days, including one featuring Katy Perry and another with Jon Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen.

But Trump has campaigned relentlessly in the state, swinging through for last-minute trips on Sunday and Monday. 

It is an uphill climb for the GOP nominee, but he has at least put himself in position to pull off the upset.

 

Ohio (18 electoral votes)

Trump has a slight edge in this bellwether state but almost no room for error, leading by only 1.6 points in the RCP average.

If Clinton pulls out a victory here on Election Day, it will be in large part from her celebrity support. 

Jay Z and Beyoncé held a get-out-the-vote concert on behalf of Clinton this weekend, and Cleveland’s favorite son, LeBron James, has emerged as a top surrogate for her with a message directed at black voters in the state.

 

Michigan (16 electoral votes)

The Wolverine State, which has gone to the Democrat in the last six elections, has surprisingly become the center of the political universe in the final days before the election.

Trump campaigned in the majority-white Detroit suburb of Sterling Heights over the weekend.

Clinton and President Obama have scheduled late trips to Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor to shore up support there as Republicans boast about internal polling shows the state as a toss-up.

The latest Detroit Free Press survey found Clinton’s lead shrinking over the past two weeks from 11 points to 4, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

A surprise victory here for Trump would rattle Democrats and significantly widen his path to the White House.

 

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)

Another must-win for Trump, the Tar Heel State has been among the closest contests in each of the past two elections and appears headed for another photo finish.

Early African-American voting is down compared to 2012 — an ominous sign for Democrats. But Clinton’s campaign insists that Hispanic turnout will make up for it.

North Carolina has received as much attention in the closing days as any state. 

President Obama is pleading with Tar Heel voters to return the state to the Democratic column. He won there in 2008, but the state went for Mitt Romney in 2012.

Trump and Clinton both held events there on Monday, underscoring the state’s importance.

 

Virginia (13 electoral votes)

Once a GOP stronghold, Virginia appears set to go to the Democratic candidate for the third election in a row, with one of its senators and former governor, Tim Kaine, on the ticket.

Trump made a late swing through Leesburg on Sunday night, but the Clinton campaign is not busy defending the state, instead spending time in even bluer battleground regions like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Clinton has led in every poll of Virginia except for one since August.

 

Arizona (11 electoral votes)

Arizona has only gone for the Democratic candidate once in the last 64 years, but Democrats are optimistic that 2016 is the year a new trend starts.

Trump leads by 4 points in the RCP average, but Democrats are banking on surging Hispanic turnout as they look to pull an upset.

The Trump campaign has been sending surrogates there in the final days to shore up support, recognizing that a loss in the ruby-red state would spell disaster.

 

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)

Of the blue Midwest states Trump has targeted, Wisconsin appears the least likely to flip.

The last two polls here show Clinton ahead by 6 points. 

Still, the Trump campaign is spending time and resources here in the final days, with running mate Mike Pence, Speaker Paul Ryan, endangered Sen. Ron Johnson and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus putting forward a united front.

 

Colorado (9 electoral votes)

The polls have been all over the place in Colorado, but Clinton will enter Election Day with a 2.9-point advantage in the RCP average.

The Centennial State has a fierce independent streak and is notoriously difficult to survey.

Adding to the confusion: The third-party candidates — Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein — are polling stronger here than elsewhere, combining for about 10 percent support.

 

Iowa 

(6 electoral votes)

The Hawkeye State — a traditionally blue battleground where Trump has shown surprising strength — once looked to be firmly in the GOP nominee’s column.

But the polls have tightened considerably, and Iowa now looks like a toss-up heading into Election Day.

Trump made a late swing through the state over the weekend, but it has otherwise received very little attention from either side.

 

Nevada (6 electoral votes) 

Trump will enter Election Day with a slight lead in the polls, but some experts are saying that Clinton has already won the state based on early-voting turnout, particularly among Hispanics.

The Clinton campaign claims that Trump will have to win by double digits there on Election Day to make up the difference.

 

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)

The Granite State once looked out of reach for Trump, but polls have broken late in his direction, and he now leads in the RCP average by 1.6 points.

Trump stopped in Manchester on Monday looking to close the deal, but New Hampshire has not received much attention otherwise in the final stretch.

Clinton canceled an appearance here on Monday, opting instead for a blue-states schedule that took her to Pennsylvania and Michigan. Obama picked up the slack for her with a stop in Durham on Monday.

Tags Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Mike Pence Paul Ryan Ron Johnson Tim Kaine
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