Campaign

The Hill’s Campaign Report — Biden’s dismal poll numbers rattle Democrats

President Joe Biden speaks during an event to celebrate the passage of the "Bipartisan Safer Communities Act," a law meant to reduce gun violence, on the South Lawn of the White House, Monday, July 11, 2022, in Washington.
Evan Vucci/Associated Press
President Joe Biden speaks during an event to celebrate the passage of the “Bipartisan Safer Communities Act,” a law meant to reduce gun violence, on the South Lawn of the White House, Monday, July 11, 2022, in Washington.

Biden’s dismal poll numbers rattle Dems

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election. 

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@thehill.com).  Someone forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.

Recent polls offer stark warning ahead of midterms

New poll numbers out this week are painting a clearer picture of how dismal a scenario Democrats are facing going into 2022 and possibly 2024.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll released on Tuesday shows that only 29 percent of voters said they believe Biden should run for reelection in 2024, while a whopping 64 percent said that he should not run for reelection. That poll comes after a New York Times/Siena College survey out on Monday found that 64 percent of Democrats said they would prefer a different 2024 candidate over Biden. Additionally, 44 percent of all respondents said they would cast their vote for Biden if the election were today. 

While the polls are focused on 2024, The Hill’s Mychael Schnell and Hanna Trudo report that Democrats are viewing their chances of retaining a House majority as slimmer than ever. Even in the Senate, where Democrats had a bit of an advantage, fears are growing among the party’s hopefuls.  

Is Virginia slipping away?: Biden’s poor poll numbers, coupled with a terrible political environment for his party, are putting already vulnerable Democratic incumbents in a tough spot. The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports that this is playing out in states like Virginia, where Democrats have experienced heavy losses recently.  

“[Biden’s] numbers are so bad and the public opinion about the direction of the country is so low that it’s putting into jeopardy two or potentially three Democratic incumbent legislators here in the House,” said veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth, referring to incumbent Democratic Reps. Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton.

Progressives seize the moment: So what are Democrats doing to deal with the fallout over Biden’s latest poll numbers?  

RootsAction, a progressive grassroots organization, is launching a campaign to oppose Biden’s reelection bid.

“In 2024 the United States will face the dual imperatives of preventing a Republican takeover of the White House and advancing a truly progressive agenda. The stakes could not be higher,” RootsAction wrote in a press release. “The threat of a neofascist GOP has become all too obvious. Bold and inspiring leadership from the Oval Office will be essential.”

“With so much at stake, making [Biden] the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer in 2024 would be a tragic mistake.”

Is Trump in trouble too?

While The New York Times/Siena College poll offers some not-so-good news to Biden about Democrats’ willingness to reelect him again in 2024, the survey also shows that close to half of Republican primary voters are interested in someone other than former President Trump in the next election cycle.

When Republican primary voter respondents were asked who they would vote for if the GOP 2024 presidential primary were held today, 49 percent said Trump. But a separate 47 percent named another candidate or said “someone else,” meaning that primary voters are not completely sold on a third Trump bid.

A closer look: Some of the most important contingents of Republican primary voters are less enthusiastic about a Trump 2024 bid, including 41 percent of respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 years old and 44 percent of those between the ages of 30 and 44 years old.

While 62 percent of respondents with a high school education or less and 52 percent of those with some college experience would also back Trump, the poll suggests the more education a respondent has, the less enthusiastic they are about the former president.

Only 29 percent of those with a Bachelors’ degree and 26 percent with a graduate degree would support the former president for a 2024 bid.

While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) receives 25 percent of support from respondents overall, he’s also the only other candidate to receive double-digit support. Former Vice President Pence, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo all received less than 10 percent support from respondents.

Though Trump, or any of the other Republicans noted in the poll have formally declared a 2024 presidential bid, have yet to formally announce a bid, the former president has often teased out the possibility. Multiple sources who spoke to The Hill said that there has been discussion that an announcement could come as soon as this summer by Trump.

Key quote: “It’s been clear for a while now that voters would like an alternative to Trump AND Biden. That’s not the same as saying that they CAN’T win the nomination. But, a ‘change’ candidate starts with a deep reservoir of support,” Amy Walter, Cook Political Report publisher and editor-in-chief, tweets.  

TRUMP IN ARIZONA

Former President Trump is heading to the Grand Canyon State on Saturday to campaign for several of his endorsees, including Senate hopeful Blake Masters (R) and gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R), ahead of the state’s Aug. 2 primary.

Recent polling shows Trump’s endorsed candidates leading their respective rivals. An OH Predictive Insights poll released last week, which surveyed 515 Arizonans who qualified as likely Republican primary voters, found that Lake received 39 percent support compared to developer Karrin Taylor Robson at 31 percent.

Another Trump test: But when former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.) was removed from the polling (he’s already left the race and backed Robson), those margins tighten up: Lake gets 40 percent support compared to Robson’s 35 percent.

Separate OH Predictive Insights polling released last week, which surveyed 515 Arizonans who qualified as likely Republican primary voters, found Masters receiving 25 percent compared to businessman Jim Lamon (18 percent) and state Attorney General Mark Brnovich (14 percent).

Trump’s Arizona rally comes on the heels of two rallies he held last week in Nevada and Alaska for a handful of his endorsed candidates. 

Senate Dem hopefuls rake in cash

More candidates are releasing their fundraising totals for the second quarter of 2022, the latest of which include Pennsylvania Senate hopeful John Fetterman (D) and Florida Senate candidate and Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) and North Carolina Senate hopeful Cheri Beasley (D).

Fetterman’s campaign announced on Tuesday that he had raked in $11 million for the second quarter, a stark contrast to the $3.1 million he raised in the first quarter of this year. His campaign noted that it was not only the highest sum of money Fetterman had ever raised in one quarter, but the highest amount of money that a Pennsylvania Senate candidate had ever raised in one quarter, too.

Fetterman ends the second quarter with close to $5.5 million cash on hand.

Southern Dems make bank: Over in the Sunshine State, Demings announced that she hauled in more than $12.2 million for this latest quarter; in the first quarter, she raised more than $10 million. The Florida Democrat ends the second quarter with $12.5 million cash on hand.

North Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Cheri Beasley raised over $7.42 million in the second quarter, beating the state’s 2020 Democratic Senate nominee Cal Cunningham’s second quarter record.

Republicans have also raked in impressive hauls at the House level in their effort to win back the lower chamber. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy brought in $19.2 million during the second quarter, bringing his fundraising total to $50 million for the first six months of the year.

GOP groups are posting large hauls as well. Winning for Women Action Fund, a group devoted to electing Republican women posted a $2.6 million second-quarter haul.  

AD WATCH

New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan’s (D) campaign rolled out an ad titled “Responsible” on Tuesday, highlighting what she says she has done to cut government spending.  

Wisconsin Democratic Senate candidate and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes unveiled an ad titled “Right” in which his mother shares her abortion story.  

The Democratic National Committee has launched digital display ads as a part of its Defend Choice Week of Action. The display ads promoting DefendChoice.org will run on over 20 lifestyle sites including Teen Vogue, Refinery29, Glamour, The Cut, Bustle, In Style, The Everygirl, HelloGiggles, Cup of Jo, Cosmopolitan, Elle, Women’s Health, Allure, Essence, Latina, GQ, Rolling Stones, The Ringer, Men’s Health, Men’s Journal, and Esquire.  

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you Thursday. 

Tags
See all Hill.TV See all Video