Campaign

Most Americans don’t want Trump or Biden to run in 2024: poll

Most Americans don’t want either President Biden or his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, to run for the White House again in 2024, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shared exclusively with The Hill. 

Two-thirds of voters surveyed – 67 percent – said that Biden shouldn’t seek another term in the Oval Office, with nearly half citing their belief that he’s a bad president as the reason why. Another 30 percent said it’s simply because Biden, who would be 84 by the time he takes the Oath of Office again, is too old for the job. 

Trump, meanwhile, doesn’t fare much better when it comes to a 2024 run. Fifty-seven percent said that the former president shouldn’t mount another bid for the White House, despite his repeated hints that he plans to do so. 

When it comes to the reason why most voters aren’t keen on another Trump White House run, respondents were divided. Thirty-six percent said that it’s because he is “erratic,” while another 33 percent said they believe he will divide the country. Nearly as many – 31 percent – pointed to his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. 

If the two men end up in a 2024 rematch, however, 60 percent of voters said they would be open to supporting a moderate independent candidate in the election.

The poll suggests that voters on both sides of the aisle are largely ready to move on from the bitter rivalries that have dominated U.S. politics in recent years, especially given the possibility that the 2024 presidential election could end up looking a lot like it did in 2020.

“Americans want a clear change from this president and the last one,” Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, said. “There will be a virtual voter revolt if these are the two candidates once again.” 

Republicans, however, remain loyal to Trump, with 59 percent of GOP voters saying they would cast their ballot for him in the 2024 presidential primary. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, comes in a distant second place at 17 percent support.

Without Trump on the primary ballot, however, DeSantis would be the clear favorite for the GOP nomination. Thirty-nine percent of Republican respondents said they would support him, putting the Florida governor well ahead of the second-place finisher, former Vice President Mike Pence, who notched 18 percent.

Nevertheless, if asked to choose only between Biden and Trump, the former president would come out on top, according to the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. Forty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump over Biden in a head-to-head matchup, while 42 percent said they would reelect the Democratic incumbent.

Vice President Harris fares even worse in a matchup with Trump, notching only 40 percent support to his 47 percent. Still, she has a fighting chance against DeSantis. In a head-to-head contest, 41 percent said they would vote for Harris compared to 38 percent who would choose DeSantis, the poll found.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted between Sept. 7-8 among 1,885 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

Tags 2024 presidential election Biden Donald Trump Harvard CAPS/Harris poll Ron DeSantis
See all Hill.TV See all Video