2020 Dem primary could be a New York affair

2020 Dem primary could be a New York affair
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New York gave the country not one, but two presidential nominees in 2016. The next contest may bring more of the same.

Five prominent Democrats from the greater New York area are eyeing bids for the White House in the next presidential cycle, which would again put the nation’s top media market at the center of national politics. 

Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten Elizabeth GillibrandPoll shows 36 percent support Trump's reelection, 43 percent prefer generic Democrat Trump's approval rating holds steady at 45 percent amid government shutdown: poll Senate Dems introduce bill to keep DACA info private MORE (N.Y.), New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, New Jersey Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerMellman: Lynching and defective representation Senate Dems introduce bill to keep DACA info private 2020 Dems seize on MLK Day for campaign messaging MORE and Connecticut Sen. Chris MurphyChristopher (Chris) Scott MurphySenate Dems introduce bill to keep DACA info private Dems demand answers following explosive new Cohen report Dem senators debate whether to retweet Cardi B video criticizing Trump over shutdown MORE have all been mentioned as potential candidates in 2020.

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It’s a surprise to New Yorkers, who saw Republican Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpCoast Guard chief: 'Unacceptable' that service members must rely on food pantries, donations amid shutdown Dem lawmaker apologizes after saying it's never been legal in US to force people to work for free Grassley to hold drug pricing hearing MORE cruise though the GOP primary last year and then defeat former New York Sen. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonPavlich: Mueller’s indictment of the media Poll shows 36 percent support Trump's reelection, 43 percent prefer generic Democrat How the Clinton machine flooded the FBI with Trump-Russia dirt … until agents bit MORE (D) in the general election.

“We haven’t really seen this,” said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Selib when asked about the crop of budding candidates in the Empire State area. “It’s pretty unusual.” 

At this point it’s not clear if any of the Democrats with ties to the New York area will run for the White House in 2020, though Trump is expected to run for reelection and expressed confidence to The New York Times in a Thursday interview that he will win another four-year term.

Whether he faces another New Yorker in the general election is an open question.

Gillibrand is widely seen as a possible contender. She recently made national headlines by calling for Sen. Al FrankenAlan (Al) Stuart FrankenIdentity politics and the race for the Democratic nomination Bill Maher defends Bernie Sanders campaign over sexual harassment allegations Gillibrand defends calling for Franken to resign during stop in Iowa MORE’s (D-Minn.) resignation, and for saying Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonCohen will not answer questions about ongoing probes involving Trump, GOP lawmakers say BuzzFeed story has more to say about media than the president Agency function is tied to how people feel about their job — that's bad news for USDA research MORE should have stepped down during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. That led Trump to call her out in a tweet that said she used to come to him begging for money and would do “anything” for it, a remark Democrats blasted as sexist innuendo.

Booker has been seen as a future White House contender since he first reached the national stage. In December, he appeared side-by-side with Democratic candidate Doug Jones in the final days of the contentious Alabama Senate race. The Jones victory burnished Booker’s credentials.

Cuomo has long been seen as a possible White House candidate and has been in the news in recent weeks for his criticism of the tax-cut bill Trump signed into law last week.

Murphy is best known for his advocacy for gun control, which has won him a spot on many 2020 watch lists.

De Blasio recently took a trip to Iowa— a major sign that he is considering his options outside of the city. The New York City mayor gave a non-denial denial when asked about his presidential aspirations. 

“Thank you for the question but it’s the same answer that I have given dozens and dozens of times,” he told Brian Lehrer, a New York radio host. “We have got a lot to do and a very aggressive agenda for New York City for the next four years. I want to use my voice to support change in our party and in our country.” 

Having multiple candidates from the New York market could be a hindrance if they end up fighting for the same donors.

Susan Del Percio, a New York-based Republican strategist who worked for Cuomo several years ago, added that the candidates would have a problem differentiating themselves. 

“They all sound like each other,” Del Percio said. “When you look at New York and New Jersey in particular you see a race to the progressive movement.” 

When Cuomo was elected, she pointed out, his first priority was lowering taxes, but he’s since moved to a much more progressive management style. 

“In terms of zeitgeist, all of these candidates have placed themselves in the middle of the resistance; Cuomo and de Blasio have been in open competition in that regard,” said Grant Reeher, the director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute at Syracuse University.

Of course, that’s also where much of the Democratic Party appears to be — which makes it difficult for candidates to stand out.

New York politicians haven’t always been able to take their brands across the country, which could be a particular problem for Cuomo and de Blasio, who have brands that are closely tied to the Empire State.

“I think the big question is ‘do you have a message that’s relatable, and does it fly in all time zones, if you will,” Del Percio said. “I think some might say, ‘You’re from New York, how do you understand my problems in Youngstown, Ohio?’ ”

Selib also said the multiple possible candidates from the New York area points to a larger geographic problem for Democrats.

“This is a challenge for Democrats who have so many candidates coming from places in the country where we're already really strong,” he said. “We'd be better off if we had a more geographically diverse set of candidates.” 

But Reeher said the number of high quality candidates coming from the same area shows signs of strength for the Democratic field. 

In 1988, he pointed out, the Democratic candidates were “often disparaged for lacking big names.”

“When Pat Schroeder entered the race it was labeled ‘Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs,' ” he recalled, referring to the former Colorado representative.

“That would not be the case this time. … Having that level of quality to choose from is probably a good thing for the Democratic Party, and of the process more generally, it will generate more excitement and attention.”