Dems search for winning playbook

Dems search for winning playbook
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Democrats are feeling increasingly confident about their chances of winning back the House and Senate in the 2018 midterms. 

After a surprising victory in Alabama’s Senate election last month, the party felt like it had momentum. Decisions by a pair of high-profile House GOP incumbents, Reps. Darrell IssaDarrell Edward IssaThe Hill's Morning Report — Shutdown fallout — economic distress Former congressmen, RNC members appointed to Trump administration roles Senate throws hundreds of Trump nominees into limbo MORE (Calif.) and Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceFormer GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop Lawmakers propose banning shark fin trade Bottom Line MORE (Calif.), to announce their retirements has only left the party feeling more confident. 

The Hill asked more than a dozen top officials, strategists and lawmakers in the party how Democrats should work the next ten months in Washington and across the country. 

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Here’s what they said the party’s top priorities and strategies should be between now and November.

Don’t be in a hurry to compromise

Democrats think Republicans have good reason to be worried about the midterms given President TrumpDonald John TrumpClinton and Ocasio-Cortez joke about Kushner's alleged use of WhatsApp Missouri Gov. declares state of emergency amid severe flooding Swalwell on Hicks testimony: 'She's going to have to tell us who she lied for' in Trump admin MORE’s approval numbers, an endless stream of White House controversies and history: The president’s party typically loses seats in the first midterm of his term.

As a result, Democrats say their congressional leaders should be in no hurry to compromise with Republicans on immigration or Trump’s demands for a wall on the Mexican border, infrastructure or spending matters ahead of a possible shutdown this week. 

“The last thing Democrats should be doing is chasing after elusive bipartisan compromises,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley, a former chief spokesman to then-Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidBernie campaign 2.0 - he's in it to win it, this time around Dems wrestle over how to vote on ‘Green New Deal’ Senate confirms Trump court pick despite missing two 'blue slips' MORE (D-Nev.). 

Former Rep. Steve IsraelSteven (Steve) J. IsraelThe importance of moderate voters Five questions for Beto O'Rourke The myth of the pro-Israel lobby MORE (D-N.Y.) said the focus has to be winning in November, even as lawmakers battle for legislative victories this winter.

“Democrats have a responsibility to govern, but they also have an imperative to win,” said Israel, who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2014. 

“If they can get a deal that reflects their values on certain priorities like DACA, they should,” the former congressman said. “The problem is the lack of a predictable partner or even a manageable outcome. So I wouldn’t let those strategic decisions influence the tactical imperatives of prioritizing the 24 seats they need to win. Which means finishing recruiting, building a ground game, and raising resources to withstand a Republican onslaught." 

None of this means Democrats should reject a legislative deal. Indeed, red-state Democrats up for reelection in the Senate are seen as being nervous about pushing things too far in the spending talks. 

And conflicts between the House and Senate may be in play.

Arguably, there is more incentive for Senate Democratic Leader Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis Schumer4 in 5 Americans say they support net neutrality: poll GOP senator: Trump's criticism of McCain 'deplorable' Schumer to introduce bill naming Senate office building after McCain amid Trump uproar MORE (N.Y.) to compromise as he seeks to protect incumbents such as Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillLobbying world Dem candidate has Hawley served subpoena at CPAC Annual scorecard ranks GOP environmental efforts far below Dems in 2018 MORE or Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyLobbying World Lobbying World Overnight Energy: Trump taps ex-oil lobbyist Bernhardt to lead Interior | Bernhardt slams Obama officials for agency's ethics issues | Head of major green group steps down MORE in Missouri and Indiana, respectively.

In the House, Democratic Leader Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiHouse Dems unveil measure to reject anti-Israel boycotts Freshman Dems to meet with Obama next week The Hill's Morning Report - Trump's intraparty feuds divide Republicans MORE (Calif.) is eyeing a big turnout from the left to deliver a majority to her conference.

Overall, most Democrats are erring on the side of caution when it comes to working with Republicans. They say the administration should have to work hard to win them over. 

“It’s gotta be a good deal,” Manley said of any legislative compromise. “If not, it’s not worth it.”

Follow the Rahm Emanuel 2006 model 

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, the former White House chief of staff, was the campaign czar for House Democrats the last time they won the House majority in 2006. 

While a part of Emanuel’s game plan was to recruit top candidates across the country, he also focused on the suburbs, a hotbed for moderate voters that Dems say will be the key to victory in 2018. 

“Many of the key races that determine control of the House will be won or lost in suburban districts,” said William Galston, a senior fellow of governance studies at the Brookings Institution who served as a policy adviser to Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonHoward Schultz is holding the Democratic Party hostage Hill-HarrisX poll: 76 percent oppose Trump pardoning former campaign aides A Weld challenge to Trump would provide Republicans a clear choice MORE during his administration.  

Emanuel benefited from the political climate of 2006. 

The election was driven by opposition to an unpopular President George W. Bush, who was drowning in headlines about the Iraq war and his handling of Hurricane Katrina. Congressional Republicans — including former House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-Texas) and Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) — were also rocked by scandal in the months leading up to the election.  

Democrats say the political climate is even more poisonous for Republicans now. For one thing, Trump’s White House is shrouded in the Russia investigation. And Republican incumbents “are dropping like flies,” in the words of one Democratic strategist helping to win back the House. 

“They’re imploding,” the Democrat said. “All we need to do is let them unravel while holding firm to our issues.” 

Find the right candidates

Call this the Doug Jones rule. 

Democrats think Jones won in Alabama because he was the right candidate to have in the race when things opened up for the party — first with Republican Roy MooreRoy Stewart MooreRoy Moore says he's 'seriously considering' 2020 Senate bid Doug Jones: Trump unintentionally giving 'green light' to hate crimes GOP candidate welcomes Roy Moore to enter Alabama Senate primary MORE’s win in a primary over the GOP establishment favorite Luther StrangeLuther Johnson StrangeDomestic influence campaigns borrow from Russia’s playbook Overnight Defense: Senate bucks Trump with Yemen war vote, resolution calling crown prince 'responsible' for Khashoggi killing | House briefing on Saudi Arabia fails to move needle | Inhofe casts doubt on Space Force Five things to watch in Mississippi Senate race MORE, and then when Moore’s campaign imploded over allegations he had had sexual relationships decades ago with young teens. 

Jones had deep roots in the community and connected particularly well with black voters. During his time as a lawyer, he helped secure a conviction for two Ku Klux Klan members who bombed a Baptist church in Birmingham in 1963.

“One of the things we’ve got to do is recruit candidates who are compatible with the districts they represent,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.). “If we’re ever going to win again in the south we’ve got to put candidates up that people in the south will vote for.” 

Make the politics local 

While voters are attuned to what’s happening nationally, what they care most about is what happens in their backyards.

“The research we have done … shows that each of these races will be won by focusing on local issues that matter to the day-to-day lives of voters,” said former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), who launched the super PAC Fight Back California, aimed at winning seven congressional seats in the Golden State. 

“Voters in these districts are tired of polarizing partisan arguments at the national level. They want members of Congress to focus on the issues that matter most in their daily lives,” she said.

In Rep. Jeff DenhamJeffrey (Jeff) John DenhamCrazy California an outlier? No, we are the canary in the coal mine Polling editor says news outlets should be more cautious calling elections Rep. Valadao officially concedes in California race MORE’s district, which covers Modesto and parts of California's central valley, for example, the group plans to focus on water issues along with jobs, the economy and homelessness.

None of this is to say that Trump won’t be a big part of the story in November.

Every midterm election in history has had something to do with the president, and Trump’s unconventional presidency will be the biggest overriding issue in November.

But as Democrats talk about the midterms, expect them to try to talk about specific issues in their districts in addition to Trump.

Cleaver puts it this way: Let Trump demonize himself. Don’t do it for him.

“I don't like the man but I think we make a terrible, terrible mistake if our priority is to demonize President Trump in new ways,” he said. “I think President Trump has done a good job of demonizing himself.”

Cleaver is speaking to the fears many Democrats hold that if their attacks are on Trump are too aggressive, it could backfire. Impeachment votes, which Democratic leaders have sought to contain but which the grass roots loves, is an example of the push-pull going on in the party.

“We have to tell people what we want and what we believe in,” Cleaver said.