Poll: Dems' lead on House generic ballot shrinks to single digits

Poll: Dems' lead on House generic ballot shrinks to single digits
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Democrats' lead in House generic ballot polling for the 2018 midterm elections has fallen to single digits according to a poll released Thursday.

An NPR—PBS NewsHour—Marist poll found that when voters were asked which party’s candidate they’d more likely vote for in their district, 46 percent of registered voters said Democrats, while 40 percent went with Republicans. Nine percent are undecided.

That shows a sizable decline from December polling, which found Democrats leading by 13 points on generic ballot polling.

Thursday’s poll found more welcome news for Republicans among registered voters who identify as independents.

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Among those voters, Republicans led by 2 points, with 38 percent of those voters saying they’d vote for the GOP candidate, while 36 percent said the Democratic candidate. In December, polling found that Democrats were leading among independent voters by 11 points.

The RealClearPolitics polling average for 2018 generic ballot polling remains in the double-digits for Democrats, with a 10.5-point lead.

But Thursday’s poll has been consistent with the three most recent generic ballot surveys, showing Democrats up by 5 or 6 points.

Many political observers are predicting a wave election given Democrats’ significant advantage on generic ballot polling and high voter enthusiasm that led to recent victories in 2017.

There have also been a number of high-profile House GOP retirements that bode well for Democrats as they look to take back the House. Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats in order to do so.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 8 to 10 and surveyed 1,092 registered voters via landlines and cellphones. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.