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GOP Senate candidate fundraising lags behind Dems in key races

GOP Senate candidate fundraising lags behind Dems in key races
© Greg Nash

Senate Republican incumbents and challengers posted lackluster fundraising hauls for the final quarter of 2017, an issue that could complicate the party's ability to take advantage of a favorable map. 

Republicans are eyeing the 10 states where Democrats are on defense after President TrumpDonald John TrumpFive takeaways from Gillum and DeSantis’s first debate GOP warns economy will tank if Dems win Gorbachev calls Trump's withdrawal from arms treaty 'a mistake' MORE won in 2016. But GOP candidates running in those states continue to lag behind Democratic incumbents’ multimillion-dollar fundraising hauls from October to the end of December.

For the 2018 election cycle, the average Democratic incumbent raised $2.1 million in the fourth quarter, with an average of $7.75 million cash on hand.

Meanwhile, the average GOP challenger raised $746,000 in the fourth quarter, and has an average of $1.05 million cash on hand.

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Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerDemocrats slide in battle for Senate Biden: American values being 'shredded' under Trump Trump says Heller won lone Nevada Senate debate: 'He beat her very badly' MORE (Nev.), the most vulnerable GOP incumbent up for reelection, had his weakest fundraising quarter of 2017, raising just $820,687. He was outraised 2-to-1 by his likely Democratic opponent, Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenTrump says Heller won lone Nevada Senate debate: 'He beat her very badly' Five takeaways from testy Heller-Rosen debate in Nevada Heller complains about media in Senate debate: 'You see how they treat Kanye West' MORE, who raised more than $1.5 million and has $1.8 million cash on hand. But Heller still holds a sizable cash advantage, with $4.2 million in the bank. 

Heller’s stagnant fundraising doesn’t bode well for an incumbent senator facing a tough race in a state Trump lost by more than 2 points.

He’ll also need to spend some of that money to fend off a contested primary against Republican Danny Tarkanian, a perennial candidate who most recently lost a close House race in 2016.

In Missouri, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, a top Republican Senate candidate for the race, came close to a million, bringing in $958,000 and ending the year with nearly $1.2 million in the bank. Trump won Missouri by nearly 20 points in 2016. 

While Hawley was one of the best fundraisers among GOP challengers, he’ll still be competing with Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillDemocrats slide in battle for Senate Overnight Health Care — Presented by Purdue Pharma —Senate debates highlight fight over pre-existing conditions | Support grows for Utah Medicaid expansion measure | Arkansas health official defends work requirements McCaskill campaign says ‘intern’ who filmed campaign had access to voter data MORE’s (D-Mo.) formidable war chest. She led the pack of Democratic incumbents by raising $2.9 million last quarter, and has amassed $9.1 million in her campaign account. 

And in Pennsylvania, Republicans are reportedly voicing concerns with Rep. Lou BarlettaLouis (Lou) James BarlettaOvernight Health Care — Presented by Purdue Pharma — Trump officials move to require drug prices in TV ads | 4,000 more people lose Medicaid in Arkansas | New top official for Medicaid Election Countdown: Cruz, O'Rourke fight at pivotal point | Ryan hitting the trail for vulnerable Republicans | Poll shows Biden leading Dem 2020 field | Arizona Senate debate tonight Should we retire the ‘wave' election moniker? MORE (R-Pa.), who is struggling to keep pace financially with Sen. Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick CaseyDems target small cluster of states in battle for House Overnight Health Care — Presented by Purdue Pharma — Trump officials move to require drug prices in TV ads | 4,000 more people lose Medicaid in Arkansas | New top official for Medicaid Election Countdown: Cruz, O'Rourke fight at pivotal point | Ryan hitting the trail for vulnerable Republicans | Poll shows Biden leading Dem 2020 field | Arizona Senate debate tonight MORE (D-Pa.). Barletta raised $550,000 last quarter, with $1 million cash on hand. Casey raised $2.6 million, with $8.6 million stockpiled in his bank account.

But some Republicans running for safer Senate seats surpassed the million-dollar threshold in the fourth quarter. In Tennessee, GOP Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnDemocrats slide in battle for Senate Katy Perry praises Taylor Swift for diving into politics Celebrity endorsements aren't kingmakers, but they may be tiebreakers MORE raised $2 million and former GOP Rep. Stephen FincherStephen Lee FincherTensions on immigration erupt in the House GOP Trump backs Blackburn's Tennessee Senate bid Corker backs Blackburn for Senate seat after retirement tensions MORE hauled in $1.45 million. And in Texas, GOP Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzGOP warns economy will tank if Dems win Ex-lawmaker urges Americans to publicly confront officials O'Rourke on calling Cruz 'Lyin' Ted': 'That wasn't the best phrase for me to use' MORE raised $1.9 million, but was outraised by Democratic Rep. Beto O'RourkeRobert (Beto) Francis O'RourkeO'Rourke on calling Cruz 'Lyin' Ted': 'That wasn't the best phrase for me to use' Cruz: Trump isn't friend or foe, he is 'the president' O'Rourke declines to respond to Trump attacks: There's enough 'bitterness, name-calling, partisanship' MORE.

This year, the average Democratic incumbent running for reelection had raised more and had more in the bank than the average Republican incumbent had at this point in the 2016 cycle. Meanwhile, the average Republican challenger had raised less than comparable challengers in the 2016 cycle, and had less on hand than comparable challengers in the 2014 cycle.

In this cycle, Arizona Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyArizona Senate candidate doubles down attacking opponent over Taliban comments Arizona newspaper backs Democrat in dead heat Senate race Trump boosts McSally, bashes Sinema in Arizona MORE was the only Republican running in a key battleground state to raise more than $1 million last quarter, though she hadn’t yet made her Senate bid official at the time. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), meanwhile, raised $1.6 million.

But during that same quarter in 2015, six Republicans — including five incumbents and then-Rep. Joe HeckJoseph (Joe) John HeckAnti-Trump Republicans better look out — voters might send you packing How endangered GOP Sen. Dean Heller is seeking to hang on Bottom line MORE (R-Nev.) — had raised $1 million. And for Democrats, five challengers running for Senate also raised more than $1 million, and two had raised more than $2 million.

In the 2016 cycle, Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetEagles player sits out national anthem Trump administration denied it has ‘secret’ committee seeking negative information on marijuana: report Overnight Health Care: Senators target surprise medical bills | Group looks to allow Medicaid funds for substance abuse programs | FDA launches anti-vaping campaign for teens MORE (Colo.) — the only Democratic incumbent running in a top race —raised $1.5 million and had $6.7 million cash on hand. Meanwhile, the GOP incumbents in 2016 raised an average of $1.4 million, with an average of $6.65 million in the bank. 

In the 2014 cycle, the average Democratic incumbent raised $1.4 million, with an average of $5.4 million cash on hand. The average Democratic challenger raised $1.56 million, had $2.8 million cash on hand, though they all lost. The average Republican challenger raised $600,000, had $1.76 million cash on hand. All but one won.

Given the current fundraising numbers for the 2018 cycle, that suggests Democratic donors are more engaged, while Republican donors have so far sat on their hands.

Republican strategists believe the party’s failure to repeal ObamaCare last year could have translated into weaker fundraising for some Republicans running for office.

“You’ve had a lot of base dissatisfaction based on ObamaCare repeal not getting through. That has certainly caused folks to close their checkbooks to some candidates and in some cases the House and Senate campaign committees,” said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and former Republican National Committee (RNC) spokesman.

But Heye believes the GOP tax overhaul — the first major piece of legislation passed since Trump took office — will convince donors to reopen their wallets especially since polling for the tax plan has improved since its passage. 

“Now we’ve passed big legislation, we’ve seen some numbers on the upswing, and it takes time for that to then manifest itself in fundraising,” Heye said. “I think we’re in a better place than we were six weeks ago.”

While GOP candidates are struggling to keep pace with Democrats, Republicans take solace in the high-dollar fundraising of their campaign committees, particularly the Republican National Committee.

In 2017, the RNC raised $132.5 million, nearly doubling the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) fundraising haul of $65.9 million.

That could mean donors are prioritizing contributions to the national party, while Democrats have been donating more heavily to individual candidates. 

And while the DNC has struggled financially, Democrats’ Senate campaign arm has consistently outraised its GOP counterpart for most of 2017.

GOP strategists also point to investment from outside groups like Senate Leadership Fund that will come in to help buoy Republican candidates in battleground states.

“Republicans realize it’s likely to be a challenging election cycle ... but I think we all feel very confident about the fundraising prowess of our committees, the White House and what the candidates have demonstrated thus far,” said GOP strategist Ryan Williams.