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Cook Political Report shifts 13 House races toward Dems

Cook Political Report shifts 13 House races toward Dems
© Victoria Sarno Jordan

The Cook Political Report has shifted several House races toward the Democratic Party ahead of November's midterm elections, the nonpartisan elections analyst said Friday.

A number of House Democrats had their seats shifted to the left by Cook, while the report says a number of Republicans could now face higher chances of defeat in November.

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In total, 13 races were shifted by Cook to the left in the latest rankings, including those involving Reps. Tom MacArthurThomas (Tom) Charles MacArthurChamber-backed Democrats embrace endorsements in final stretch Republican David Richter wins NJ primary in race to challenge Rep. Andy Kim What to watch in New Jersey's primaries on Tuesday MORE (R-N.J.), David ValadaoDavid Goncalves ValadaoEx-GOP Rep. David Valadao up 11 points over Democrat TJ Cox in California House race: poll Republicans uncomfortably playing defense House Democrats target Midwestern GOP seats MORE (R-Calif.) and Robert PittengerRobert Miller PittengerBottom Line North Carolina reporter says there could be 'new crop' of GOP candidates in 9th Congressional District race North Carolina board calls for new election in contested House race MORE (R-N.C.), who all saw their districts move from "likely" Republican to the more vulnerable category of "lean" Republican.

Cook also shifted some races involving Democratic incumbents, including Reps. Josh GottheimerJoshua (Josh) GottheimerTrump fuels and frustrates COVID-19 relief talks Trump's illness sparks new urgency for COVID-19 deal House approves .2T COVID-19 relief bill as White House talks stall MORE (D-N.J.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), from "likely" Democratic to the "solidly" Democratic category.

One big issue the analysis says Republicans will face is Pennsylvania's congressional district map, which was recently redrawn by the state's Supreme Court despite protests from state GOP leaders. The new lines caused Cook to shift a number of districts further to the left.

"Republicans desperately need to catch some breaks to offset the new Pennsylvania map," Cook Political Report House editor Dave Wasserman wrote.

"In this difficult environment, the [National Republican Congressional Committee] and the Congressional Leadership Fund have no choice but to run against Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiOvernight Health Care: Following debate, Biden hammers Trump on coronavirus | Study: Universal mask-wearing could save 130,000 lives | Finger-pointing picks up in COVID-19 relief fight On The Money: Finger-pointing picks up in COVID-19 relief fight | Landlords, housing industry sue CDC to overturn eviction ban Finger-pointing picks up in COVID-19 relief fight MORE and seek to individually disqualify Democratic nominees with negative ads over the summer and early fall — before those nominees can introduce themselves — in order to hold onto their majority," he added.

Democrats currently have an 8-point advantage over Republicans on a generic House ballot, the Cook report notes, and a recent Morning Consult poll showed President TrumpDonald John TrumpIvanka Trump, Jared Kusher's lawyer threatens to sue Lincoln Project over Times Square billboards Facebook, Twitter CEOs to testify before Senate Judiciary Committee on Nov. 17 Sanders hits back at Trump's attack on 'socialized medicine' MORE with a 41 percent approval rating with 54 percent of those surveyed disapproving of his job as president.

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats in the midterms to retake the majority in the House.