Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters

Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters
© Greg Nash

Older educated white voters who voted for President TrumpDonald TrumpHouse votes to condemn Chinese government over Hong Kong Former Vice President Walter Mondale dies at age 93 White House readies for Chauvin verdict MORE in 2016 are now leaning toward Democrats, according to a Reuters–Ipsos poll released Monday.

White college graduates over the age of 60 now favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin. The same group favored Republicans by 10 percentage points during the same polling period in 2016.

The 12-point swing toward Democrats is one of the largest the Reuters–Ipsos poll has measured over two years.


The trend will likely harm Republican chances of keeping the majority in the House during the November midterm elections, analysts said.

“The real core for the Republicans is white, older white, and if they’re losing ground there, they’re going to have a tsunami,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, told Reuters. “If that continues to November, they’re toast.”

Health care is the primary concern for this demographic, according to the poll. Twenty-one percent of respondents cited it as their top issue, compared to only 8 percent two years ago.

Older educated white voters make up the majority in tight congressional races in New Jersey, Arizona, California, Illinois, Texas and Virginia, Reuters reported.

Older white voters, regardless of education, are still more likely to vote for Republican candidates. But their support for the GOP has dropped by about 5 percentage points since the first quarter of 2016.

The Reuters–Ipsos poll surveyed more than 65,000 adults during the first three months of 2016 and 2018, including 15,000 people over the age of 60.