Loss of Ryan hits hard for House Republicans

Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanHow does the 25th Amendment work? Sinema, Fitzpatrick call for long-term extension of Violence Against Women Act GOP super PAC drops .5 million on Nevada ad campaign MORE’s (R-Wis.) decision to retire from Congress has set off more alarm bells for Republicans worried about whether they can hold the House in the midterm elections. 

The ripple effects of Ryan’s announcement will not be clear for months. But in the early hours after the news broke, some Republicans framed the news as both the latest sign that Republicans are headed for the minority as well as a spark that could set off more GOP retirements. 

“It’s just another illustration of the harbinger of things to come. There’s no Republican who’s optimistic about the November elections,” said Terry Sullivan, a GOP strategist who ran Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioNikki Haley: New York Times ‘knew the facts’ about curtains and still released story March For Our Lives founder leaves group, says he regrets trying to 'embarrass' Rubio Rubio unloads on Turkish chef for 'feasting' Venezuela's Maduro: 'I got pissed' MORE’s (R-Fla.) presidential campaign. “It’s the 300th example that there is a wave coming.” 

ADVERTISEMENT

Ryan’s retirement had been rumored for months, but the Speaker’s Wednesday announcement caught most in Washington off guard. In a press conference explaining his decision, the House Speaker attempted to brush aside the idea that his retirement would have any impact on the GOP’s chances of retaining the House. 


Instead, Ryan framed his decision as a personal one, characterizing himself as a reluctant Speaker who just accomplished a major victory on tax reform and now wants to spend more time with his family.

“I really do not believe that whether I stay or go in 2019 is going to affect a person’s individual race for Congress,” Ryan told reporters.

“If we do our jobs, which we are, we are going to be fine as a majority,“ he said.

Rep. Steve StiversSteven (Steve) Ernst StiversHouse Dem campaign chief presses GOP on banning use of hacked materials Trump is wrong, Dems are fighting to save Medicare and Social Security Hillicon Valley: Ex-Trump campaign adviser gets 14 days in jail | Tesla stocks fall after Elon Musk smokes weed on video | Dem, GOP talks over hacked info break down | Russian extradited over massive financial hack | Whole Foods workers trying to unionize MORE, the Ohio Republican tasked with running the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), echoed Ryan in a statement, saying that the GOP’s “mission to hold the House” continues “unabated.”

Democrats, buoyed by special election upsets and President TrumpDonald John TrumpSunday shows preview: Trump sells U.N. reorganizing and Kavanaugh allegations dominate Ex-Trump staffer out at CNN amid “false and defamatory accusations” Democrats opposed to Pelosi lack challenger to topple her MORE’s low approval rating, were already feeling good about their chances of taking back the 23 seats they need to regain the House.

Now they’re framing Ryan’s retirement as more proof that the GOP is bracing for a brutal midterm cycle.

“Speaker Ryan sees what is coming in November, and is calling it quits rather than standing behind [the] House Republican agenda,” said Tyler Law, a spokesman with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in a statement. “Stay tuned for more retirements as Republicans increasingly realize that their midterm prospects are doomed.”

Nonpartisan analysts agree that Ryan’s retirement sends a signal that Republicans will struggle to keep the House. 

Kyle Kondik, a political analyst with the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote Wednesday that “many will view Ryan’s retirement as a concession that Republicans are resigned to losing the House in the fall.”

“The Ryan exit is another bad sign for GOP House prospects and a sign that Democrats probably have the inside track for taking control of the House, at least right now,” added Kondik, who still sees the race for the House as a toss-up between the two parties. 

The most immediate effect of Ryan’s decision could be felt on other Republicans weighing retirement.

Rep. Dennis RossDennis Alan RossGOP, White House start playing midterm blame game Reshaping US aid to the Palestinians Trump allies want Congress to find anonymous op-ed author MORE (R-Fla.) publicly announced his own retirement just hours after Ryan.

Ross told The Hill that he found out about Ryan’s retirement as he was meeting with top aides preparing to deliver his own retirement news to his staff. In an interview with CNN, Ross cited a frustration with the political climate as one reason he chose to step aside.

“As we continue to see the polarization in our society over politics, we fail to understand the fundamentals of the process,” he said.

Ryan’s decision could convince other Republicans to head out the door. So far, more than 40 House Republicans are not seeking reelection to the House next year — the highest figure in more than 25 years, according to Pew Research.

“If the leader of Republicans in Congress doesn’t want to be there, what is the reason they should be?” Sullivan said. “That says more about where Congress is at, and where the Republican Party is at, than anything else.”

Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted Wednesday that there 58 GOP lawmakers in the 19 states where the candidate filing deadlines are still to come. Lawmakers in those states could retire while still giving their party time to find a new option.    

Any additional retirements could expand the House battlefield even more. The retirement announcements from Ryan and Ross prompted analysts to move those races in favor of Democrats.

But former New York GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds, who once ran the NRCC, told The Hill that outside factors have less of an impact on members considering retirement.

“I look at retirement as a personal decision — looking at the individual itself, the family, and then other considerations,” he said.

Ryan’s retirement could also impact the GOP’s fundraising operations, which have boomed under his leadership.

Ryan’s fundraising committee had just announced that it raised $54 million in the past 15 months, sending $40 million of that to the NRCC. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC allied with Ryan and House leadership, has raised $41 million this cycle through that same period.

“The message to donors, activists and other Republicans is ‘I don’t have confidence in this,’ ” Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist and former aide to President George W. Bush, said on NPR’s “Morning Edition.”

“Now everyone, I think, will probably focus on the Senate,” Jennings said.

Reynolds, the former NRCC chairman, said the House GOP leadership’s fundraising network is strong enough to overcome losing Ryan.

“It has to have an impact when [the Speaker] is no longer intending to seek reelection because some of that money rallies around your vision as a leader of the conference,” he said. “But money has not been the challenge of getting people reelected.”

Zack Roday, Ryan’s former political spokesman, told The Hill that Ryan’s decision to serve out his term would be an important one.

“He has incredible assets that will be so helpful to the Republican Congress, and him not running for reelection does not take those inherent advantages away,” he said.

Art Pope, a major GOP donor in North Carolina, said Republicans’ fate in the midterms has more to do with other factors, such as Trump. 

“What is more impactful on the support of donors and activists and on whether the Republicans have the majority in Congress is whether the threat of tariffs or a trade war has an impact on the economy,” Pope told The Hill.

“There are much more graver concerns than Speaker Ryan making an understandable decision at this point in his life,” Pope added.

Republicans retiring and not running for higher office

Paul Ryan (Wis.)
Bob GoodlatteRobert (Bob) William GoodlatteThe Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — Kavanaugh, accuser say they’re prepared to testify Goodlatte: Administration undercut law, Congress by setting refugee cap Virginia reps urge Trump to declare federal emergency ahead of Hurricane Florence MORE (Va.)
Jeb HensarlingThomas (Jeb) Jeb HensarlingMidterms to shake up top posts on House finance panel Kavanaugh hires attorney amid sexual assault allegations: report Did Congress just settle for less than best plan to reform housing finance? MORE (Texas)
Rodney FrelinghuysenRodney Procter FrelinghuysenTrump endorses Republican candidate in key NJ House race On The Money: Lawmakers get deal to avoid shutdown | House panel approves 'tax cuts 2.0' bill | Jobless claims hold steady near 49-year low Congress sends first spending package to Trump in push to avert shutdown MORE (N.J.)
Trey GowdyHarold (Trey) Watson GowdySunday shows preview: Trump sells U.N. reorganizing and Kavanaugh allegations dominate Gowdy requests FEMA administrator’s travel records amid allegations Nunes: Russia probe documents should be released before election MORE (S.C.)
Darrell IssaDarrell Edward IssaTrump to nominate retiring lawmaker as head of trade agency Overnight Energy: Watchdog to investigate EPA over Hurricane Harvey | Panel asks GAO to expand probe into sexual harassment in science | States sue over methane rules rollback Green group targets California GOP House candidates in new ads MORE (Calif.)
Joe BartonJoe Linus BartonConservatives blame McCarthy for Twitter getting before favorable committee Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeout Latina Leaders to Watch 2018 MORE (Texas)
Lamar SmithLamar Seeligson SmithOvernight Energy: Watchdog to investigate EPA over Hurricane Harvey | Panel asks GAO to expand probe into sexual harassment in science | States sue over methane rules rollback Report on new threats targeting our elections should serve as a wake-up call to public, policymakers Overnight Energy: Watchdog faults EPA over Pruitt security costs | Court walks back order on enforcing chemical plant rule | IG office to probe truck pollution study MORE (Texas)
Charlie DentCharles (Charlie) Wieder DentGOP House candidate placed on leave from longtime position after sexual misconduct allegation Election handicapper moves GOP leader's race to 'toss-up' The Hill's 12:30 Report MORE (Pa.)
Ileana Ros-LehtinenIleana Carmen Ros-LehtinenCook moves status of 6 House races as general election sprint begins The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by Better Medicare Alliance — Cuomo wins and Manafort plea deal Trump's Puerto Rico tweets spark backlash MORE (Fla.)
David Reichert (Wash.)
Pat TiberiPatrick (Pat) Joseph TiberiAP: Balderson wins hotly contested Ohio special election House Dems to invest in South Carolina race Ohio Dem candidate knocks Trump: He doesn’t know what he’s talking about MORE (Ohio)*
Frank LoBiondoFrank Alo LoBiondoJordan hits campaign trail amid bid for Speaker On The Money: Broad coalition unites against Trump tariffs | Senate confirms new IRS chief | Median household income rose for third straight year in 2017 | Jamie Dimon's brief battle with Trump Blue-state Republicans say they will vote against 'tax cuts 2.0' if it extends SALT cap MORE (N.J.)
Lynn JenkinsLynn Haag JenkinsSentencing reform is critical for youth in the justice system Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour' GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket MORE (Kan.)
Dennis Ross (Fla.)
John DuncanJohn James DuncanLive coverage: Social media execs face grilling on Capitol Hill Governor's race grabs spotlight in Tennessee primaries Election Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms MORE Jr. (Tenn.)
Sam JohnsonSamuel (Sam) Robert JohnsonMay brings key primaries across nation Loss of Ryan hits hard for House Republicans Watchdog: Social Security acting head hasn't been authorized to serve for months MORE (Texas)
Ted PoeLloyd (Ted) Theodore PoeCook shifts two House GOP seats closer to Dem column Five races to watch in the Texas runoffs Five Republican run-offs to watch in Texas MORE (Texas)
Dave TrottDavid Alan TrottDems seek to rebuild blue wall in Rust Belt contests Record numbers of women nominated for governor, Congress Key primaries in August will help shape midterms MORE (Mich.)
Ryan CostelloRyan Anthony CostellloDems eyeing smaller magic number for House majority House GOP starts summer break on a note of friction Overnight Energy: Proposed rule would roll back endangered species protections | House passes Interior, EPA spending | House votes to disavow carbon tax MORE (Pa.)
Trent FranksHarold (Trent) Trent FranksFreedom Caucus members see openings in leadership AP Analysis: 25 state lawmakers running in 2018 have been accused of sexual misconduct Jordan weathering political storm, but headwinds remain MORE (Ariz.)*
Blake FarentholdRandolph (Blake) Blake FarentholdFormer aides alleging sexual harassment on Capitol Hill urge congressional action AP Analysis: 25 state lawmakers running in 2018 have been accused of sexual misconduct Ex-lawmakers see tough job market with trade groups MORE (Texas)*
Bill ShusterWilliam (Bill) Franklin ShusterHouse and Senate negotiators reach agreement on water infrastructure bill Congress, states and cities are not doing enough today to fix our infrastructure It’s high time for a discussion on infrastructure MORE (Pa.)
Gregg HarperGregory (Gregg) Livingston HarperGOP lawmakers urge improvements to cyber vulnerabilities resource Bipartisan leaders of House panel press drug companies on opioid crisis Republican chairman wants FTC to review mergers of drug price negotiators MORE (Miss.)
Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceOvernight Defense: Latest on Korea talks | Trump says summit results 'very exciting!' | Congress to get Space Force plan in February | Trump asked CIA about silent bombs Poll: House GOP candidate leads in California swing district Overnight Defense: Congress reaches deal preventing shutdown | Pentagon poised to be funded on time for first time in years | House GOP rejects effort to get Putin summit documents MORE (Calif)
Patrick Meehan (Pa.)
Tom RooneyThomas (Tom) Joseph RooneySenate panel postpones election security bill markup over lack of GOP support Hillicon Valley: FBI fires Strzok after anti-Trump tweets | Trump signs defense bill with cyber war policy | Google under scrutiny over location data | Sinclair's troubles may just be beginning | Tech to ease health data access | Netflix CFO to step down House Intel lawmakers introduce bipartisan election security bill MORE (Fla.) 

* Have already resigned from the House