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Cook Political Report shifts seven House races toward Dems

Cook Political Report shifts seven House races toward Dems
© Greg Nash

The Cook Political Report has shifted seven House races toward the Democratic Party.

The nonpartisan elections analyst announced Wednesday it had updated the races in seven districts, all currently held by Republicans, to reflect "improved Democratic prospects" ahead of the November midterm elections.

Four of the seats were shifted from "solid" Republican to "likely" Republican, and the other three from "likely" Republican to "lean" Republican.

Cook moved the race for the Arizona House seat formerly held by Rep. Trent FranksHarold (Trent) Trent FranksArizona New Members 2019 Cook shifts 8 House races toward Dems Freedom Caucus members see openings in leadership MORE (R) — who resigned after reportedly discussing paying a staffer to act as a surrogate mother — shifted from "solid" to "lean" Republican.

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Also no longer considered "solid" by the election handicapper: GOP Reps. Jack Bergman (Mich.), David JoyceDavid Patrick JoyceCandymakers meet virtually with lawmakers for annual fly-in, discuss Halloween safety Stand-alone bill to provide relief for airlines blocked on House floor Republicans shrug off Kasich's Democratic convention speech MORE (Ohio) and Ralph NormanRalph Warren NormanHillicon Valley: House votes to condemn QAnon | Americans worried about foreign election interference | DHS confirms request to tap protester phones House approves measure condemning QAnon, but 17 Republicans vote against it House rebuffs GOP lawmaker's effort to remove references to Democrats in Capitol MORE (S.C.).

The three Republicans downgraded from "likely" to "lean" by Cook on Wednesday are Reps. French HillJames (French) French HillDemocrats projected to retain House majority Live updates: Democrats seek to extend House advantage Cook Political Report shifts 8 more House races toward Democrats MORE (Ariz.), Randy HultgrenRandall (Randy) Mark HultgrenRecord number of Black women elected to Congress in 2020 Republican challenging freshman Dem rep says he raised 0,000 in 6 days Illinois Dems offer bill to raise SALT deduction cap MORE (Ill.) and Tom GarrettThomas (Tom) Alexander GarrettInternal poll shows tight race in Virginia House race Internal poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing in Virginia House contest GOP congressman loses primary after officiating gay wedding MORE (Va.).

Cook now lists 179 House seats as "solid" for Democrats, compared to only 156 for Republicans. 

The rating changes come after the newest Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports show Democratic challengers out-raised Republicans in at least 60 GOP-held seats in the most recent cycle.

“Even before last week, Democratic donors had been demonstrating far more enthusiasm on a race-by-race basis, a fact reflected in the newest House fundraising reports. The newest FEC filings spell danger for Republicans, ” Cook election analyst David Wasserman wrote in a new blog post on Wednesday.

On top of the quarterly reports, 15 Republican incumbents had less cash on hand than their likely Democratic challengers, according to Open Secrets.

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats in the midterms to retake the majority in the House. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Democrats currently have a 5.5-point lead over Republicans in a generic congressional vote.

Ben Kamisar contributed.