Path to Dem majority lies in well-educated districts

Path to Dem majority lies in well-educated districts
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Democrats vying to reclaim a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years are targeting districts around the country where well-educated voters hold disproportionate sway, right as those voters are expressing profound displeasure with President TrumpDonald John TrumpA better VA, with mental health services, is essential for America's veterans Pelosi, Nadler tangle on impeachment, contempt vote Trump arrives in Japan to kick off 4-day state visit MORE.

An analysis of the seats both Democrats and Republicans see as key battlegrounds this year shows the path to a Democratic majority runs through two types of districts: Suburban areas near large metropolitan centers where voters are more likely to have attained college degrees, and more rural areas where the share of nonwhite voters is higher than average.

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Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to reclaim control of the House. The party is targeting more than 100 GOP-held seats this year, but most of their best opportunities are in districts that are highly educated, highly diverse, or both.

Strategists and observers say voters with college degrees represent today’s swing vote. Many have already registered their displeasure with Trump: Of the 24 Republican-held districts with the highest levels of education, 11 voted for Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHillary Clinton slams Trump for spreading 'sexist trash' about Pelosi Gillibrand seizes on abortion debate to jump-start campaign DNC boss says candidates to be involved in debate lottery MORE over Trump in 2016.

Democrats also see opportunities in more diverse districts, where the percentage of white voters is far below the national average. Among the 17 most diverse Republican-held districts in the country, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has said it will target eight seats.

Trump is struggling with both groups. Just 41 percent of white voters with a college degree approve of his job performance, while 57 percent disapprove, according to the most recent ABC News–Washington Post survey. Among nonwhites, Trump’s approval rating stands at just 17 percent.

An NBC–Wall Street Journal poll conducted this month shows 51 percent of college-educated white voters favor Democratic candidates for Congress, while 39 percent back Republicans. That’s the mirror image of the same survey’s results in 2010, when Republicans reclaimed control of the House.

“Donald Trump sets a stage that then is compounded by the Republican agenda,” said Dan Sena, who heads the DCCC. “When you’re impacting how people pay their mortgages and how they take care of their kids and their parents and themselves, those are dangerous things.”

The dismal poll numbers may be part of the reason members like Rep. Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceK Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers Former GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop Lawmakers propose banning shark fin trade MORE (R-Calif.) opted to retire this year rather than to seek another term. Royce’s district, in California’s Orange County, is both highly educated and highly diverse — 40 percent of the adults in his district have a bachelor’s degree, and just 48 percent of residents are white.

Royce’s constituents “seem to be ready to jump ship and support Democrats,” said Andy Thorburn, a Democratic candidate running for the seat. “They’re looking for a more thoughtful, stable approach to a lot of the problems. The people who were Trump supporters who are talking about voting Democratic, the reasons they give [are] it’s chaotic, there’s no plan.”

Of the 38 Republican-held seats with the highest levels of college-degree attainment, the DCCC has said it will target 27. Those include seats in wealthy suburban districts like those held by Reps. Barbara ComstockBarbara Jean ComstockK Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers GOP lawmaker introduces bill to stop revolving door Ex-lawmakers face new scrutiny over lobbying MORE (R-Va.), outside of Washington, D.C.; Mimi Walters (R-Calif.), in Orange County; and Leonard LanceLeonard LancePush for ‘Medicare for all’ worries centrist Dems Incoming Dem lawmaker: Trump 'sympathizes' with leaders 'accused of moral transgressions' On The Money: Why the tax law failed to save the GOP majority | Grassley opts for Finance gavel, setting Graham up for Judiciary | Trump says China eager for trade deal | Facebook reeling after damning NYT report MORE (R-N.J.) and Rodney FrelinghuysenRodney Procter FrelinghuysenThe 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority Top House GOP appropriations staffer moves to lobbying shop Individuals with significant disabilities need hope and action MORE (R-N.J.), outside of New York City.

Some Republicans said the suburban battleground actually helps their party come November. To reach voters in those districts, both sides will have to spend limited resources on advertising in the most expensive media markets in the country.

“Suburban districts are extremely expensive to contest when it comes to persuading voters on television,” said Tim Saler, a Republican demographic expert. “Many of the Democrats’ top targets are in some of the priciest media markets in the entire country.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are likely to make top priorities out of districts on the other end of the scales — those where the overwhelming majority of voters are white and where fewer voters have attained a college degree.

Of the 12 districts that voted for both Trump and a Democratic member of Congress, seven are more than 80 percent white. Of the 37 seats the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has said it will target this year, a dozen are in districts where fewer than a quarter of voters have college degrees.

Many of those districts — including those held by Reps. Cheri BustosCheryl (Cheri) Lea BustosHit singer Andy Grammer says 'unity' more important than any political party The Hill's Morning Report - Trump says no legislation until Dems end probes DCCC chair Bustos pulls out of fundraiser for anti-abortion rights Democrat MORE (D-Ill.), David Loebsack (D-Iowa), Collin PetersonCollin Clark PetersonDemocrats, making a difference is better than making a point House votes to reauthorize Violence Against Women Act, closing 'boyfriend loophole' Overnight Health Care: Lawmakers get deal to advance long-stalled drug pricing bill | House votes to condemn Trump's anti-ObamaCare push | Eight House Republicans join with Dems | Trump officials approve Medicaid expansion in Maine MORE (D-Minn.) and Ron KindRonald (Ron) James KindDems walk Trump trade tightrope Dems highlight NYT article on Trump's business losses in 'tax gap' hearing Congress can retire the retirement crisis MORE (D-Wis.) — are in Midwestern states, where college attainment is lower than in coastal or Sun Belt regions.

“There is this regionalization that is sort of new out there, where you’ve got states like [Pennsylvania] and Ohio and Michigan and Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, that whole belt performed more Republican than it has in a presidential [election] in a long, long time,” said John Rogers, who heads the NRCC.

Democrats will also shine a spotlight on districts where minorities play a larger role in the electorate. Districts held by members like Reps. Martha RobyMartha Dubina RobyThe Go-Go's rock the stage at annual 'We Write the Songs' DC concert The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Pass USMCA Coalition - Restrictive state abortion laws ignite fiery 2020 debate Thirty-four GOP members buck Trump on disaster bill MORE (R-Ala.), Rob WoodallWilliam (Rob) Robert WoodallGOP rep says taxpayers 'happy' to pay for performance in improving infrastructure Dem says infrastructure 'only major' issue where both parties can get a deal The Hill's Morning Report — Presented by Pass USMCA Coalition — Trump: GOP has `clear contrast' with Dems on immigration MORE (R-Ga.), Robert PittengerRobert Miller PittengerNorth Carolina reporter says there could be 'new crop' of GOP candidates in 9th Congressional District race North Carolina board calls for new election in contested House race Obama political arm to merge with Holder-run group MORE (R-N.C.) and Richard HudsonRichard Lane HudsonThirty-four GOP members buck Trump on disaster bill Two killed in shooting at University of North Carolina Charlotte Don’t look for House GOP to defy Trump on border wall MORE (R-N.C.) all have populations that are less than two-thirds white, and all appear on the DCCC’s target list.

While well-educated voters are highly likely to show up in a midterm election, that isn’t always the case for minority voters. But this year, adding to Democrats’ hopes, African-American voters especially are saying they are more likely to turn out.

Sixty-one percent of black voters said they were extremely interested in the midterms, according to the NBC–Wall Street Journal survey — 8 points higher than the percentage of white voters who said the same. The last time black voters topped white voters in enthusiasm was in 2006, when Democrats reclaimed control of the House.

Sena, the DCCC executive director, said his organization had placed 50 organizers on the ground in districts across the country. Those organizers have conducted experiments in mobilizing voters and have worked to coordinate outside groups of fired-up volunteers.

“By motivating base voters, that creates large volumes of votes,” Sena said. “The fight isn’t just about persuadable voters in the suburbs, it’s about an argument that’s applicable to all voters.”