Polls: Dems lead in three key Senate races

Polls: Dems lead in three key Senate races
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Democratic Senate candidates are leading in three key battleground states as the party looks to defend a difficult map ahead of the November midterm elections, according to new polls.

Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Ohio Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownSherrod Brown says he's 'not actively considering' running for president Election Countdown: Trump confident about midterms in Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh controversy tests candidates | Sanders, Warren ponder if both can run | Super PACs spending big | Two states open general election voting Friday | Latest Senate polls Overnight Health Care: Senators target surprise medical bills | Group looks to allow Medicaid funds for substance abuse programs | FDA launches anti-vaping campaign for teens MORE (D) are both leading their GOP challengers by double digits, while Florida Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonPolitical shenanigans mask true problems in Puerto Rico The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — The Hill interviews President Trump The Hill's 12:30 Report — Kavanaugh controversy consumes Washington | Kavanaugh slated to testify Monday | Allegations shake up midterms MORE (D) is up by just 4 points, about the margin of error in the new NBC News/Marist polls released Tuesday evening.

The results show how some of the major Senate races this cycle are shaping up with less than five months until Election Day.

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In Arizona, Sinema has mounted a strong candidacy that's unified the party as several Republican candidates continue to battle ahead of their primary Aug. 28.

Brown continues to hold a significant lead in Ohio as Rep. Jim RenacciJames (Jim) B. RenacciSherrod Brown says he's 'not actively considering' running for president Election Countdown: Trump confident about midterms in Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh controversy tests candidates | Sanders, Warren ponder if both can run | Super PACs spending big | Two states open general election voting Friday | Latest Senate polls New polling shows Brown, DeWine with leads in Ohio MORE (R) has struggled to close the gap after winning his own primary in early May.

And the Florida battle between Nelson and the state's deep-pocketed Republican Gov. Rick Scott is expected to be one of the premier races in the country — as well as one of the costliest.

As the presumptive Democratic nominee, Sinema leads Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallySinema, Fitzpatrick call for long-term extension of Violence Against Women Act The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — GOP again has momentum on Kavanaugh rollercoaster Arizona race becomes Senate GOP’s ‘firewall’ MORE (R), the frontrunner in the Arizona GOP primary, by 11 points in the new poll. Former state Sen. Kelli Ward trails Sinema by 10 points, while former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is behind the Democrat by 25 points.

McSally leads the crowded primary field with 30 percent to Ward's 28 percent, with Arpaio sitting in third with the support of 21 percent of respondents. 

Democrats are bullish on flipping the Arizona seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGrassley panel scraps Kavanaugh hearing, warns committee will vote without deal Coulter mocks Kavanaugh accuser: She'll only testify 'from a ski lift' Poll: More voters oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination than support it MORE (R) — Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonFive takeaways from Cruz, O'Rourke's fiery first debate Heller embraces Trump in risky attempt to survive in November Live coverage: Cruz, O'Rourke clash in Texas debate MORE only lost the state by 4 points in 2016 and the party believes a combination of strong turnout and lengthy GOP primary will help them in the fall. 

Republicans have sought to counter that enthusiasm by arguing that the race will narrow once the party coalesces around a candidate, pointing to the deep-red history of the state. 

In Ohio, the NBC poll shows Brown leading Renacci by 13 points in a state where Republicans came into the cycle confident they could knock off the longtime incumbent.

So far, public polling shows Brown leading by double-digits, and while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellGOP, Kavanaugh accuser struggle to reach deal GOP making counteroffer to Kavanaugh accuser The Hill's 12:30 Report — Trump questions Kavanaugh accuser's account | Accuser may testify Thursday | Midterm blame game begins MORE (R-Ky.) recently told The Hill he's more confident about his party's chances in the state, he also left the state off his list of top targets during an interview with The Wall Street Journal. 

Nelson's 4-point lead in Florida, 49 percent to 45 percent, is good news for a campaign that's seen the race tighten since Scott officially launched his bid in April.

Scott has shown a willingness to spend his vast personal wealth on his political bids, only adding to the likelihood that the race will become one of the most expensive on the Senate map this year.

Democrats have taken aim at Scott's at times polarizing tenure leading the state, as well as his friendliness to President TrumpDonald John TrumpHannity urges Trump not to fire 'anybody' after Rosenstein report Ben Carson appears to tie allegation against Kavanaugh to socialist plot Five takeaways from Cruz, O'Rourke's fiery first debate MORE. But Republicans see Nelson as beatable and have begun to rough him up in the weeks after Scott announced his bid. 

The Arizona poll reached 839 registered voters between June 17-21 with an overall margin of error of 4.5 percentage points and a margin of error of 6.7 percentage points for the 371 Republican primary voters polled.

The Florida survey of 947 registered voters contacted during the same period has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. 

In Ohio, the poll surveyed 778 registered voters between June 17-22 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.