Poll: Senate race between Cruz, O'Rourke a dead heat

The Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzGOP candidate scores upset win in Texas state Senate runoff McConnell tamps down any talk of Kavanaugh withdrawal Cornyn takes on O'Rourke over AR-15s MORE (R-Texas) and Rep. Beto O'RourkeRobert (Beto) Francis O'RourkeGOP candidate scores upset win in Texas state Senate runoff Cornyn takes on O'Rourke over AR-15s Poll: Cruz wins 3 percent of black vote, but 45 percent from Hispanics MORE (D-Texas) is neck and neck, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

The 2018 Texas Lyceum Poll showed Cruz leading O'Rourke by a hair — 41 percent to 39 percent, respectively, among likely voters. That's well within the survey's margin of error of 4.67 percentage points of 441 likely voters. 

That's a particularly tight margin for Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in three decades.

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The findings come weeks after O'Rourke, a three-term congressman, reported a staggering $10.4 million fundraising haul in the second quarter of the 2018 cycle, bringing his cash on hand to just under $14 million.

That's far more than the incumbent Cruz, who raised about $4.1 million in the second quarter and has about $9.3 million in cash on hand, Federal Election Commission filings show.

Texas has normally been a reliably red state, voting for President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump: I hope voters pay attention to Dem tactics amid Kavanaugh fight South Korea leader: North Korea agrees to take steps toward denuclearization Graham calls handling of Kavanaugh allegations 'a drive-by shooting' MORE over his Democratic challenger Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHillary Clinton: FBI investigation into Kavanaugh could be done quickly Hillary Clinton urges Americans to 'check and reject' Trump's 'authoritarian tendencies' by voting in midterms EXCLUSIVE: Trump says exposing ‘corrupt’ FBI probe could be ‘crowning achievement’ of presidency MORE by 9 points in 2016.

Chris Wilson, a former pollster for Cruz's 2016 presidential campaign, called the poll's findings into question on Wednesday, saying that the partisan breakdown for the survey “looks nothing like Texas voters.”

While the poll shows a close race for the Senate, Republicans vying for other statewide offices fared much better.

Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a second term in office, is leading his Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez 44 percent to 25 percent, respectively, among registered voters. And incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is ahead of Democrat Mike Collier 32 percent to 23 percent among registered voters.

Among likely voters in the poll, their margins increase even more: 16 points for Abbott and 10 points for Patrick.

The Texas Lyceum poll surveyed 806 registered voters across Texas from July 9-25. That includes a subset of 441 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.45 percentage points for registered voters and 4.67 for likely voters.