Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour'

Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour'

This is Election Countdown, The Hill's weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).

 

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We're 83 days from the 2018 midterm elections and 811 days from the 2020 elections.

 

In an era of big money and sophisticated campaigns, politics is increasingly becoming a team sport. A strong candidate at the head of a ticket can drive turnout in other contests on the ballot, and a weak candidate can hurt turnout in other races just as much.

Tuesday night was a bad night for a Republican squad hoping to defend its already-tenuous majority in the House, as voters opted for more conservative nominees in two battleground states over stronger and more traditional contenders expected to do well in the general election.

In Minnesota, those conservatives squelched former Gov. Tim Pawlenty's comeback bid, choosing Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) as the Republican nominee for governor. And in Kansas, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) conceded defeat to Kris Kobach, the lightening rod Kansas secretary of State who has President TrumpDonald John TrumpHannity urges Trump not to fire 'anybody' after Rosenstein report Ben Carson appears to tie allegation against Kavanaugh to socialist plot Five takeaways from Cruz, O'Rourke's fiery first debate MORE's backing.

Already aware of the treacherous terrain they face this year, Reps. Erik PaulsenErik Philip PaulsenElection Countdown: What to watch in final primaries | Dems launch M ad buy for Senate races | Senate seats most likely to flip | Trump slump worries GOP | Koch network's new super PAC Dem leads GOP incumbent in Minnesota congressional race: poll Brutal summer for Republicans MORE (R-Minn.) and Jason LewisJason Mark LewisOver 100 lawmakers consistently voted against chemical safeguards: report The Hill's Morning Report — Trump, Pence barnstorm swing states Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour' MORE (R-Minn.) had urged Pawlenty to run for his old job, confident that a steady hand would mollify suburban voters who might otherwise want a change. Republicans had also hoped to pick up Democratic-held seats left vacant by Reps. Tim WalzTimothy (Tim) James WalzElection Countdown: Trump confident about midterms in Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh controversy tests candidates | Sanders, Warren ponder if both can run | Super PACs spending big | Two states open general election voting Friday | Latest Senate polls White House re-lowers flag to half staff to honor McCain after backlash Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour' MORE, the Democratic nominee for governor, and Rick NolanRichard (Rick) Michael NolanTrump is wrong, Dems are fighting to save Medicare and Social Security Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour' GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket MORE.

"They're both in more trouble with a weak gubernatorial nominee," one Minnesota Republican strategist said of Paulsen and Lewis. "And we can forget about picking up" the Walz or Nolan seats.

In Kansas, top aides to Rep. Kevin YoderKevin Wayne YoderMother used in ad attacking Kansas Dem candidate is state GOP official To save asylum seekers we must save our immigration courts GOP super PAC hits Dem House hopeful as 'Pelosi liberal' in new Kansas ad MORE (R) voiced private concerns that having Kobach at the top of the ticket would energize Democrats and independents who can't stand the firebrand conservative. Republicans are also concerned that a seat being vacated by Rep. Lynn JenkinsLynn Haag JenkinsSentencing reform is critical for youth in the justice system Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour' GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket MORE (R) may be vulnerable.

"This race will be nationalized," said one Kansas Republican familiar with the internal discussions. "Kobach is hated by independents. He energizes the [Democrats] to get out the vote."

How does a subpar top-of-the-ticket play out in down-ballot races? Look no farther than Virginia, where Sen. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineSherrod Brown says he's 'not actively considering' running for president The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — GOP again has momentum on Kavanaugh rollercoaster Poll: Kaine leads GOP challenger by 19 points in Va. Senate race MORE (D) has spent this week campaigning with Abigail Spanberger, Elaine Luria and Jennifer Wexton, three Democratic candidates running for GOP-held House seats. Kaine has done more than 30 events with House candidates since the June primary, his campaign told The Hill.

By contrast, the Republican nominee facing Kaine, Prince William County Council chairman Corey Stewart, has based his pitch to voters on a pledge to defend Confederate statues -- even though he is a Minnesota native. Not exactly the pitch that suburban voters in an increasingly blue state want to hear.

A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released last week shows Kaine overwhelmingly leading Stewart. So don't expect to see Stewart campaigning alongside Rep. Barbara ComstockBarbara Jean ComstockMillionaires group endorses Dem House candidates opposed to GOP tax law Election Countdown: Trump confident about midterms in Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh controversy tests candidates | Sanders, Warren ponder if both can run | Super PACs spending big | Two states open general election voting Friday | Latest Senate polls Overnight Energy: Watchdog to investigate EPA over Hurricane Harvey | Panel asks GAO to expand probe into sexual harassment in science | States sue over methane rules rollback MORE (R-Va.) any time soon.

The Hill's Reid Wilson has more here on Republican worries that weak top-of-the-ticket candidates could cost them the House.

 

Primary recap

Two big things from Tuesday's primaries: Democrats chose history-making nominees in three states and establishment candidates flexed their muscles in the Midwest.

Democratic voters in Vermont chose Christine Hallquist as their gubernatorial nominee, making her the first openly transgender woman to be nominated for a governorship by a major political party.

In Connecticut's 5th District, voters handed former National Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes the Democratic nomination to replace Rep. Elizabeth EstyElizabeth Henderson EstyFormer aides alleging sexual harassment on Capitol Hill urge congressional action Rising Dem star in Connecticut says people like me ‘deserve a seat at the table’ in Congress House Dems to invest in South Carolina race MORE (D). If Hayes wins in November, she'll become the first black Democrat from Connecticut to serve in the House.

And in Minnesota's 5th District, Ilhan Omar took the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Keith EllisonKeith Maurice EllisonEllison accuser: Dems 'smeared, threatened, isolated' me Kavanaugh becomes September surprise for midterm candidates Trump Jr., Dem congressman spar over Ellison's association with Farrakhan MORE (D), likely setting her up to become one of the first Muslim women elected to Congress.

Tuesday was also a (largely) good night for establishment candidates, particularly in the two Midwestern primaries.

Leah Vukmir, who carried the endorsement of the Wisconsin GOP, overcame a challenge from Kevin Nicholson in the state's GOP Senate primary, handing a defeat to a candidate who billed himself as a political outsider.

And incumbent Sen. Tina SmithTina Flint SmithElection Countdown: Trump confident about midterms in Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh controversy tests candidates | Sanders, Warren ponder if both can run | Super PACs spending big | Two states open general election voting Friday | Latest Senate polls Farm bill must protect working lands conservation programs Kavanaugh becomes September surprise for midterm candidates MORE (D-Minn.), a longtime player in Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, easily advanced to the state's special Senate election in November, beating out Richard Painter, a former ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush, in her primary.

 

Read our takeaways from Tuesday night.

 

Race for the White House

Michael Avenatti, the lawyer representing Stormy Daniels in her lawsuit against Trump, released his policy positions on Twitter as he weighs a 2020 bid. Among his positions, Avenatti supports "Medicare for All," which is gaining steam on the left flank of the party.

And while we're on the subject of Avenatti, The Hill's Amie Parnes and Mike Lillis take a look at how Democrats are embracing Avenatti's call to be more aggressive in the Trump era--making a notable switch from former first lady Michelle ObamaMichelle LeVaughn Robinson ObamaMichelle Obama book tour fetching steep ticket prices Michelle Obama warns against voter apathy in new PSA Michelle Obama adds dates to book tour 'due to overwhelming fan demand' MORE's call to "go high."

 

Senate showdown

Democrats and Republicans are vying for votes among Florida's burgeoning Puerto Rican population – a voting bloc that is expected to play a critical role in 2020 and beyond.

On the Republican side, party officials and outside groups are holding civics classes and resume-writing workshops to court Puerto Rican voters, The Hill's Rafael Bernal and Max Greenwood report. Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to field more diverse candidates as they seek to hold onto Puerto Ricans as reliable Democratic voters.

 

Meanwhile, progressives are livid that Senate Democrats aren't doing enough to oppose Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, reports The Hill's Jordain Carney. Their frustrations come as vulnerable Senate Democrats o meet with Kavanaugh. They include Democratic Sens. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampGOP Senate candidate: Allegations against Kavanaugh 'absurd' The Memo: Tide turns on Kavanaugh McCaskill to oppose Kavanaugh nomination MORE (N.D.), Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyThe Memo: Tide turns on Kavanaugh McCaskill to oppose Kavanaugh nomination The Memo: Kavanaugh firestorm consumes political world MORE (Ind.), Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskill'Kavanaugh' chants erupt at Trump rally in Missouri The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — Kavanaugh, accuser say they’re prepared to testify Drug companies will love Trump's plan to get rid of drug rebates — the consumers will hate it MORE (Mo.). He's already met with Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinCook Political Report moves Texas Senate race to ‘toss-up’ The Memo: Tide turns on Kavanaugh McCaskill to oppose Kavanaugh nomination MORE (D-W.Va.).

 

Survey says…

Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonPolitical shenanigans mask true problems in Puerto Rico The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — The Hill interviews President Trump The Hill's 12:30 Report — Kavanaugh controversy consumes Washington | Kavanaugh slated to testify Monday | Allegations shake up midterms MORE (D) holds a slight lead over Gov. Rick Scott (R) in Florida's Senate race, a poll commissioned by the nonpartisan Hispanic Federation and several progressive Latino groups finds. The poll finds Nelson up, 44 to 41 percent, among Latinos statewide. Scott leads among Cuban-Americans, who lean conservative, while Nelson is ahead among Puerto Ricans.

 

A new Monmouth University poll is showing the race for a competitive New Jersey House seat is a dead heat. Rep. Tom MacArthurThomas (Tom) Charles MacArthurMillionaires group endorses Dem House candidates opposed to GOP tax law Election handicapper moves 10 races toward Dems Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour' MORE (R-N.J.) leads his Democratic challenger Andy Kim, a former national security aide in the Obama administration, 41 to 40 percent, an edge within the survey's margin of error. Trump won MacArthur's district in 2016, but Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012.

 

New polling is out from Navigator Research and here are some of the highlights: Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 8 points, 45 to 37 percent. The group found that opposition to the family separation policy has grown even as the administration has stopped the policy. Now 69 percent oppose it. And on the Supreme Court, 15 percent say they have a favorable view of Trump's nominee Brett Kavanaugh, while 28 percent view him unfavorably.

 

Paper chase

Democratic mega-donor Tom Steyer announced Tuesday that he will spend $10 million on a get out the vote effort that he's calling "Need to Vote." The name is a play on his other initiative "Need to Impeach," which seeks to rally support for booting Trump from office. The Get-out-the-vote campaign will take out TV and digital ad spots, mail out handwritten letters encouraging supporters to vote and dispatch political operatives across the country.

 

Rep. Beto O'RourkeRobert (Beto) Francis O'RourkeFive takeaways from Cruz, O'Rourke's fiery first debate O'Rourke rakes in .1M online in August Texas showdown: Cruz, O'Rourke to face off in debate MORE (D-Texas) is going up on the airwaves--and using the money he raised after Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzFive takeaways from Cruz, O'Rourke's fiery first debate NY Times, McCabe give Trump perfect cover to fire Rosenstein, Sessions Live coverage: Cruz, O'Rourke clash in Texas debate MORE (R-Texas) ran a negative ad against him. O'Rourke, who has an uphill fight in his Senate bid in ruby-red Texas, is spending $1.27 million on a "positive" ad campaign.

 

What we're watching for

Here's a list of the final primaries in August: Alaska and Wyoming hold primaries on Aug. 21 and Arizona and Florida have primaries on Aug. 28.

 

Rep. Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantisDems look to Gillum, Abrams for pathway to victory in tough states San Juan mayor calls Hurricane Maria ‘Trump's Katrina’ DeSantis ally called Obama racial slur on Twitter MORE (R-Fla.) is set to campaign alongside Rep. Jim JordanJames (Jim) Daniel JordanHillicon Valley: Trump cyber strategy lets US go on offense | AT&T urges court to let Time Warner merger stand | Conservatives want wife of DOJ official to testify | Facebook, nonprofits team up to fight fake news | DC camera hacker pleads guilty FBI memos detail ‘partisan axes,’ secret conflicts behind the Russia election meddling assessment Republicans threaten to subpoena Nellie Ohr MORE (R-Ohio) on Aug. 18 in a trio of events the lawmakers are dubbing the "Freedom Tour." Jordan is mounting a bid for House Speaker and DeSantis is Trump's choice for Florida governor. They'll be joined by another avid Trump supporter, Rep. Matt GaetzMatthew (Matt) GaetzThe federal government must stop stifling medical marijuana research Hillicon Valley: Twitter chief faces GOP anger over bias | DOJ convenes meeting on bias claims | Rubio clashes with Alex Jones | DHS chief urges lawmakers to pass cyber bill | Sanders bill takes aim at Amazon Conservatives blame McCarthy for Twitter getting before favorable committee MORE (R-Fla.).

 

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo will debate progressive challenger, former "Sex and the City" star Cynthia Nixon, on Aug. 29 in the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary.

 

Coming to a TV near you

Less than 24 hours since the Wisconsin primary, Democrats and Republicans leapt out of the gate with new ads in the Senate and governor's races.

 

In the Senate primary, Democratic super PAC American Bridge is running an ad targeting newly minted GOP nominee Leah Vukmir. And Gov. Scott Walker (R) is also out with a new TV ad touting his agenda. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin Republican Party launched an ad targeting Walker's Democratic opponent, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.

 

Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) launched a flurry of new ads this week tarring Democratic candidates in competitive House races. The ads take Democrats to task over local issues as well as continuing to tie them to House Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiSinema, Fitzpatrick call for long-term extension of Violence Against Women Act Internal RNC poll shows Pelosi is more popular than Trump: report Indicted lawmaker angers GOP with decision to run for reelection MORE (D-Calif.). CLF is running ads in competitive GOP-held seats in California, New Jersey, Illinois, Wisconsin, New York and Maine.

 

Mike Braun, the Republican challenging Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) in Indiana, is out with a new digital ad campaign seeking to put pressure on Donnelly to support Kavanaugh's nomination. One ad questions whether Donnelly will get "permission" from Democratic leaders to confirm him, while another demands that Chuck SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerTrump, GOP regain edge in Kavanaugh battle READ: President Trump’s exclusive interview with Hill.TV The Hill's 12:30 Report — Trump slams Sessions in exclusive Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh accuser wants FBI investigation MORE "allow Joe to confirm Judge Kavanaugh today."

 

 

Wave watch

About a week after Washington state's primary, we finally know who Republican Dino Rossi will face in November. Democrat Kim Schrier, a physician won the second spot on the general election ballot in Washington's top-two primary. Rossi and Schrier will compete in the race to replace Rep. Dave ReichertDavid (Dave) George ReichertElection Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour' Democrat Kim Schrier advances in Washington primary Overnight Energy: Koch backs bill opposing carbon taxes | Lawmakers look to Interior budget to block offshore drilling | EPA defends FOIA process MORE (R-Wash.), whose seat Clinton carried by more than 3 points.

 

Pelosi is going back to a familiar strategy from 2006--painting Republicans as corrupt in the wake of Rep. Chris CollinsChristopher (Chris) Carl CollinsThe Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — Kavanaugh, accuser say they’re prepared to testify Indicted lawmaker angers GOP with decision to run for reelection Election Countdown: Trump confident about midterms in Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh controversy tests candidates | Sanders, Warren ponder if both can run | Super PACs spending big | Two states open general election voting Friday | Latest Senate polls MORE's (R-N.Y.) arrest on insider trading charges. Democrats are looking to hit home that strategy in the run-up to the midterms, linking the party to Collins and the scandals that have swept up White House officials. It's unclear how effective those attacks will be, but Democrats--and Pelosi--believe it can be a powerful campaign message like in 2006.

 

And speaking of Collins, Democrats are threatening to sue to keep the New York congressman on the November ballot, which they believe will help them flip a deep-red Buffalo seat. Meanwhile, a dozen local Republicans are expressing interest in Collins's seat.

 

Also today... A new poll also shows Democrats up 11 points over Republicans on a generic House ballot. The Cook Political Report is moving four GOP races to the toss up category. And President Trump praised the results of Tuesday night's primaries, claiming that Republicans have "the team we want" heading into the midterms.

 

The Hill's Election Countdown was written by Reid Wilson, Lisa Hagen, Max Greenwood, Jasper Goodman and Caroline Gardner.