Election handicapper moves 10 races toward Dems

Election handicapper moves 10 races toward Dems
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Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 10 House races toward Democrats on Thursday, including the election involving recently indicted Rep. Duncan HunterDuncan HunterHarris endorses Democrat in tight California House race Democrats go big on diversity with new House recruits Lobbying world MORE (R-Calif.).

The handicapper moved Hunter’s race in California’s 50th Congressional District from a “safe Republican” seat to “leans Republican.”

The Department of Justice alleged in an indictment Tuesday against Hunter and his wife, Margaret Hunter, that the GOP congressman used campaign funds to purchase trips to Italy and Hawaii, pay for his family's dental work, his children's tuition and international travel for nearly a dozen relatives.

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Elsewhere on the map, the Crystal Ball moved races involving Reps. Don YoungDonald (Don) Edwin YoungBig bank hypocrisy: inconsistent morals to drive consistent profits House Republicans introduce legislation to give states 0 million for elections Great American Outdoors Act will deliver critical investments to our national parks, forests MORE (R-Alaska) and Pete OlsonPeter (Pete) Graham OlsonTroy Nehls wins GOP primary in competitive Texas House district 4 Texas GOP congressional primary runoffs to watch China must be held accountable for its egregious actions against Hong Kong MORE (R-Texas) from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.” The forecaster did the same with an open seat in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District.

Reps. Rodney DavisRodney Lee DavisThe Hill's Campaign Report: Even the Post Office is political now | Primary action tonight | Super PACS at war House Democrats target Midwestern GOP seats Hillicon Valley: Trump backs potential Microsoft, TikTok deal, sets September deadline | House Republicans request classified TikTok briefing | Facebook labels manipulated Pelosi video MORE (R-Ill.), Randy HultgrenRandall (Randy) Mark HultgrenRepublican challenging freshman Dem rep says he raised 0,000 in 6 days Illinois Dems offer bill to raise SALT deduction cap The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority MORE (R-Ill.) and Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) had their races shifted from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.” 

A trio of seats moved from "leans Republican" to "toss-up," including Rep. Tom MacArthurThomas (Tom) Charles MacArthurRepublican David Richter wins NJ primary in race to challenge Rep. Andy Kim What to watch in New Jersey's primaries on Tuesday Republicans plot comeback in New Jersey MORE’s (R-N.J.) race. The other seats moved into the category include Washington’s 8th District and North Carolina’s 9th District.

Republicans are seeking to stave off a Democratic push to retake control of the House and Senate in November. A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrats with a 6.6 point lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot.

Sabato’s managing editor Kyle Kondik said Democrats stand to solidify their favored status following developments this week involving former Trump associates Michael Cohen and Paul ManafortPaul John ManafortTrump says he would consider pardons for those implicated in Mueller investigation Graham releases newly declassified documents on Russia probe The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Argentum - Mask mandates, restrictions issued as COVID-19 spreads MORE.

"Previous developments related to Robert MuellerRobert (Bob) MuellerCNN's Toobin warns McCabe is in 'perilous condition' with emboldened Trump CNN anchor rips Trump over Stone while evoking Clinton-Lynch tarmac meeting The Hill's 12:30 Report: New Hampshire fallout MORE’s investigation of the 2016 campaign and Russian involvement really haven’t," Kondik wrote. "But it would be wrong to look at what happened earlier this week and argue that the Cohen/Manafort news doesn’t mean anything to the battle for the House."

Cohen pleaded guilty to eight felony charges, including campaign finance violations that he said he made at the direction of a candidate for federal office. His statement implicated President TrumpDonald John TrumpMark Kelly clinches Democratic Senate nod in Arizona Trump camp considering White House South Lawn for convention speech: reports Longtime Rep. Lacy Clay defeated in Missouri Democratic primary MORE without naming him specifically.

Manafort was convicted on eight charges of bank fraud and tax fraud, while the judge declared a mistrial on 10 other counts after the jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict.