Poll: McSally takes lead over Sinema in Arizona Senate race

Poll: McSally takes lead over Sinema in Arizona Senate race
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Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyThe Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — GOP again has momentum on Kavanaugh rollercoaster Arizona race becomes Senate GOP’s ‘firewall’ Election Countdown: Trump confident about midterms in Hill.TV interview | Kavanaugh controversy tests candidates | Sanders, Warren ponder if both can run | Super PACs spending big | Two states open general election voting Friday | Latest Senate polls MORE (R-Ariz.) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakePoll: More voters oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination than support it Ford opens door to testifying next week Police arrest nearly two dozen Kavanaugh protesters MORE (R-Ariz.) according to a new ABC15–OH Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday. 

It is McSally's first lead in the poll that comes just under eight weeks before the midterm elections.

The poll shows McSally overtaking Sinema with 49 percent of the likely vote compared to Sinema’s 46 percent, a difference that falls within the margin of error. Sinema had led by 6 points in the poll earlier this year.

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Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings by similar margins. McSally has a 49-39 favorable/unfavorable rating, and Sinema has a 47-38 favorable/unfavorable rating.

However, McSally, whose approval rating has been tied to that of President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump rallies in Nevada amid Supreme Court flurry: 'We're gonna get Brett' Trump: 'Good news' that Obama is campaigning again Trump boosts Heller, hammers 'Wacky Jacky' opponent in Nevada MORE in past polls, is buoyed by improved numbers for the president in Arizona.

Trump is above water with about 51 percent of likely Arizona voters approving of the job he’s doing so far, compared with 47 percent who disapprove of his job performance. 

He also has made significant gains among crucial swing demographics. His approval rating spiked 17.3 percent among likely voters aged 55-64, 13.3 percent among likely voters with a bachelor’s degree and 11.1 percent among women. 

Trump tweeted out his endorsement of McSally in August.

Democrats, who are defending 10 Senate seats in states Trump won in 2016, see the Arizona race as one of their few opportunities to flip a Republican seat in November. Republicans currently hold a razor-thin 51-49 majority in the Senate. The president won Arizona by just more than 3.5 points in 2016.

The Cook Political Report lists the Senate race as a “toss up.” 

RealClearPolitics average of polls has Sinema leading the race by 1.4 points.

OH Predictive Insights surveyed 597 likely Arizona voters from Sept. 5 to 6. The poll has a margin of error of 4.01 percentage points.