Poll: McSally takes lead over Sinema in Arizona Senate race

Poll: McSally takes lead over Sinema in Arizona Senate race
© Getty images

Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyPoll shows McSally, Kelly tied in Arizona Senate race Mark Kelly's campaign raises over M in days after launching Senate bid Overnight Defense: House votes to end US support for Saudis in Yemen | Vote puts Trump in veto bind | Survey finds hazards in military housing | Senators offer new bill on Russia sanctions MORE (R-Ariz.) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeTrump suggests Heller lost reelection bid because he was 'hostile' during 2016 presidential campaign Live coverage: Trump delivers State of the Union Sasse’s jabs at Trump spark talk of primary challenger MORE (R-Ariz.) according to a new ABC15–OH Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday. 

It is McSally's first lead in the poll that comes just under eight weeks before the midterm elections.

The poll shows McSally overtaking Sinema with 49 percent of the likely vote compared to Sinema’s 46 percent, a difference that falls within the margin of error. Sinema had led by 6 points in the poll earlier this year.

ADVERTISEMENT

Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings by similar margins. McSally has a 49-39 favorable/unfavorable rating, and Sinema has a 47-38 favorable/unfavorable rating.

However, McSally, whose approval rating has been tied to that of President TrumpDonald John TrumpBill Kristol resurfaces video of Pence calling Obama executive action on immigration a 'profound mistake' ACLU says planned national emergency declaration is 'clear abuse of presidential power' O'Rourke says he'd 'absolutely' take down border wall near El Paso if he could MORE in past polls, is buoyed by improved numbers for the president in Arizona.

Trump is above water with about 51 percent of likely Arizona voters approving of the job he’s doing so far, compared with 47 percent who disapprove of his job performance. 

He also has made significant gains among crucial swing demographics. His approval rating spiked 17.3 percent among likely voters aged 55-64, 13.3 percent among likely voters with a bachelor’s degree and 11.1 percent among women. 

Trump tweeted out his endorsement of McSally in August.

Democrats, who are defending 10 Senate seats in states Trump won in 2016, see the Arizona race as one of their few opportunities to flip a Republican seat in November. Republicans currently hold a razor-thin 51-49 majority in the Senate. The president won Arizona by just more than 3.5 points in 2016.

The Cook Political Report lists the Senate race as a “toss up.” 

RealClearPolitics average of polls has Sinema leading the race by 1.4 points.

OH Predictive Insights surveyed 597 likely Arizona voters from Sept. 5 to 6. The poll has a margin of error of 4.01 percentage points.