Poll: McSally takes lead over Sinema in Arizona Senate race

Poll: McSally takes lead over Sinema in Arizona Senate race
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Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallySinema, Fitzpatrick call for long-term extension of Violence Against Women Act The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by United Against Nuclear Iran — GOP again has momentum on Kavanaugh rollercoaster Arizona race becomes Senate GOP’s ‘firewall’ MORE (R-Ariz.) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGrassley panel scraps Kavanaugh hearing, warns committee will vote without deal Coulter mocks Kavanaugh accuser: She'll only testify 'from a ski lift' Poll: More voters oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination than support it MORE (R-Ariz.) according to a new ABC15–OH Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday. 

It is McSally's first lead in the poll that comes just under eight weeks before the midterm elections.

The poll shows McSally overtaking Sinema with 49 percent of the likely vote compared to Sinema’s 46 percent, a difference that falls within the margin of error. Sinema had led by 6 points in the poll earlier this year.

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Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings by similar margins. McSally has a 49-39 favorable/unfavorable rating, and Sinema has a 47-38 favorable/unfavorable rating.

However, McSally, whose approval rating has been tied to that of President TrumpDonald John TrumpGrassley: Dems 'withheld information' on new Kavanaugh allegation Health advocates decry funding transfer over migrant children Groups plan mass walkout in support of Kavanaugh accuser MORE in past polls, is buoyed by improved numbers for the president in Arizona.

Trump is above water with about 51 percent of likely Arizona voters approving of the job he’s doing so far, compared with 47 percent who disapprove of his job performance. 

He also has made significant gains among crucial swing demographics. His approval rating spiked 17.3 percent among likely voters aged 55-64, 13.3 percent among likely voters with a bachelor’s degree and 11.1 percent among women. 

Trump tweeted out his endorsement of McSally in August.

Democrats, who are defending 10 Senate seats in states Trump won in 2016, see the Arizona race as one of their few opportunities to flip a Republican seat in November. Republicans currently hold a razor-thin 51-49 majority in the Senate. The president won Arizona by just more than 3.5 points in 2016.

The Cook Political Report lists the Senate race as a “toss up.” 

RealClearPolitics average of polls has Sinema leading the race by 1.4 points.

OH Predictive Insights surveyed 597 likely Arizona voters from Sept. 5 to 6. The poll has a margin of error of 4.01 percentage points.