Poll: Dem leads Arizona race for Flake’s Senate seat by 3 points

Poll: Dem leads Arizona race for Flake’s Senate seat by 3 points
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Arizona’s closely watched Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeTrump suggests Heller lost reelection bid because he was 'hostile' during 2016 presidential campaign Live coverage: Trump delivers State of the Union Sasse’s jabs at Trump spark talk of primary challenger MORE (R) is neck and neck between Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyPoll shows McSally, Kelly tied in Arizona Senate race Mark Kelly's campaign raises over M in days after launching Senate bid Overnight Defense: House votes to end US support for Saudis in Yemen | Vote puts Trump in veto bind | Survey finds hazards in military housing | Senators offer new bill on Russia sanctions MORE (R) according to a new NBC News/Marist poll released Tuesday.

In the survey, Sinema has the support of 48 percent of likely voters, while 45 percent back McSally, a 3-point difference that falls within the poll’s margin of error.

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The poll also shows that Green Party candidate Angela Green could sway the election.

When Green is included in the polling, Sinema’s support slips to 45 percent among likely voters, while McSally’s falls to 43 percent and Green is backed by 6 percent of likely voters. 

Sinema holds a double-digit lead among independents, whites with a college degree, Hispanics and women, while McSally maintains strong support among Trump supporters, men and whites without a college degree. 

Sinema has a net-positive favorability rating among Arizona likely voters.

About 46 percent of respondents have a positive view of her, compared to 33 percent who view her unfavorably.

McSally has a net-negative favorability rating, with 40 percent of Arizona respondents viewing her favorably and 42 percent unfavorably.

McSally, who attempted to tie herself closely to President TrumpDonald John TrumpBill Kristol resurfaces video of Pence calling Obama executive action on immigration a 'profound mistake' ACLU says planned national emergency declaration is 'clear abuse of presidential power' O'Rourke says he'd 'absolutely' take down border wall near El Paso if he could MORE during a brutal GOP primary, could be being dragged down by his net-negative job approval rating. About 44 percent of likely Arizona voters approve of the job Trump’s doing, while 51 percent disapprove.

Trump backed McSally in August, tweeting, "Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!"

About 52 percent of Arizona likely voters said they would vote for Democrats to be a check and balance on Trump, while 38 percent said their vote would be a message in favor of more Republicans to help Trump pass his agenda.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up.”

The NBC News/Marist poll surveyed 564 likely voters from Sept. 16-20 and has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.