Election Countdown: Kavanaugh allegations put GOP in tough spot | Republicans start to pull plug on candidates | Dems get early start in Iowa | O'Rourke defends Cruz after protesters interrupt dinner | Why Biden is the Democrat GOP most fears

Election Countdown: Kavanaugh allegations put GOP in tough spot | Republicans start to pull plug on candidates | Dems get early start in Iowa | O'Rourke defends Cruz after protesters interrupt dinner | Why Biden is the Democrat GOP most fears

This is Election Countdown, The Hill's weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).

 

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We're 41 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 769 days until the 2020 elections.

 

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and the woman who alleges that he sexually assaulted her in high school will be in the spotlight tomorrow, less than six weeks out from the midterms.

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Both Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee about the allegations, which have derailed the original timeline for the nominee's confirmation.

It's unclear just how the allegations and hearing could impact the November elections. Nevertheless, it has put Republicans in a difficult position: Do they side with Kavanaugh, and by extension President TrumpDonald John TrumpCummings says Ivanka Trump not preserving all official communications Property is a fundamental right that is now being threatened 25 states could see severe flooding in coming weeks, scientists say MORE, who has questioned the accusers' accounts, and risk isolating female voters and moderates? Or do they take a more tentative approach to Kavanaugh's nomination and risk igniting conservative ire?

 

It also remains to be seen how red-state Democrats vote on the nomination. Sens. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampRed dresses displayed around American Indian museum to memorialize missing, murdered native women Lobbying World Lobbying World MORE (D-N.D.), Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinManchin says he won't support LGBTQ protection bill as written Senators offer bipartisan bill to fix 'retail glitch' in GOP tax law Murkowski, Manchin call for 'responsible solutions' to climate change MORE (D-W.Va.) and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyLobbying World Lobbying World Overnight Energy: Trump taps ex-oil lobbyist Bernhardt to lead Interior | Bernhardt slams Obama officials for agency's ethics issues | Head of major green group steps down MORE (D-Ind.) broke rank last year and voted to confirm Trump's first Supreme Court nominee, Justice Neil Gorsuch.

But Gorsuch's nomination, while opposed by most Democrats, did not carry the same kind of controversy as Kavanaugh's. Heitkamp, Manchin and Donnelly are already facing tough reelection bids in states that Trump won by wide margins in 2016, and how they handle Kavanaugh's nomination is sure to be watched closely.

 

The allegations against Kavanaugh come roughly a year after the start of the "Me Too" movement that exposed sexual misconduct allegations against many powerful men in business, politics and entertainment. That movement has helped energize female voters and ignited speculation of another "Year of the Woman," marked by a surge in female candidates.

 

Race for the White House

We're still 495 days away from the first-in-the-nation caucusues, but the 2020 presidential maneuvering in Iowa is already underway, reports The Hill's Amie Parnes. Rep. John DelaneyJohn Kevin DelaneySolving climate change the American way CNN to host town hall with Cory Booker in South Carolina Howard Schultz to be featured in Fox News town hall MORE (D-Md.) a little-known congressman, has made Iowa a high priority and has already run over 3,100 ads there. Same goes for billionaire Democratic donor Tom Steyer, who's launched more than 2,000 ads in the state in the past year calling for Trump's impeachment.

 

Also from Amie is a report that former Vice President Joe BidenJoseph (Joe) Robinette BidenTrump has lost support from male voters since shutdown, analysis shows Biden-Abrams ticket would be a genius media move The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump attacks on McCain rattle GOP senators MORE is the one Democrat that Republicans fear the most about 2020. With an emerging field of potential progressive candidates, Republicans see Biden as the biggest hurdle to Trump's reelection.

 

Former New York City mayor and billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg said he'll delay making a decision about whether to run for president in 2020 until after the November midterms. In the meantime, Bloomberg has committed himself to the midterms, pledging to donate millions to candidates around the country.

 

Senate showdown

Rep. Beto O'RourkeRobert (Beto) Francis O'RourkeBannon says an O'Rourke-Harris ticket poses the greatest threat to Trump in 2020 Biden-Abrams ticket would be a genius media move The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump attacks on McCain rattle GOP senators MORE (D-Texas) defended Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzBiden-Abrams ticket would be a genius media move Families of Kenyan victims seek compensation for Ethiopian Airlines crash 737 crisis tests Boeing's clout in Washington MORE (R-Texas) after Cruz and his wife were confronted by a group of protesters at a D.C. restaurant over Kavanaugh. "Not right that Senator Cruz and his wife Heidi were surrounded and forced to leave a restaurant last night because of protesters. The Cruz family should be treated with respect," O'Rourke tweeted.

 

Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerOvernight Health Care: Dems demand answers on rule targeting Planned Parenthood | Senators tell FDA to speed approval of generic insulin | Nearly 8 in 10 say drug prices are 'unreasonable' in new poll Senators tell FDA to speed up approvals of generic insulin Trump applauded for walking away from 'bad' North Korea deal MORE (R-N.D.), who's running against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), raised eyebrows again for his comments about the sexual assault allegations levied against Kavanaugh. In a Monday interview, Cramer questioned whether the allegations should "disqualify" the judge "even if it's all true." But when asked if the allegations are true and proved that Kavanaugh lied, Cramer said that would be disqualifying.

 

Cramer also sought to clarify his remarks from last week that the allegations are "absurd." He said Monday that he was calling the timing of the allegations and comparisons to Anita Hill "absurd." In regards to his comment that "nothing happened" in the allegations that Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford described, Cramer explained, "My point was there was no type of intercourse or anything like that."

 

Phil Bredesen, the Democratic Senate hopeful in Tennessee, said Tuesday that he has no plans to back Senate Minority Leader Chuck SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis Schumer4 in 5 Americans say they support net neutrality: poll GOP senator: Trump's criticism of McCain 'deplorable' Schumer to introduce bill naming Senate office building after McCain amid Trump uproar MORE (D-N.Y.) for a leadership post if he's elected in November. Bredesen said in a debate that Congress's current leaders make up "a lot of the problem" in Washington. "I can tell you right now that if I'm elected, and when I'm elected and go to Washington, I am not going to be voting for Chuck Schumer," he said.

 

The office of Montana state auditor Matt Rosendale, who is challenging Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSanders, Ocasio-Cortez back 'end the forever war' pledge Dems wrestle over how to vote on ‘Green New Deal’ White House pleads with Senate GOP on emergency declaration MORE (D-Mont.), dropped sanctions and fines against a Friedell LLC, a bail bond company, after meeting company representatives in 2017, the Montana Free Press reports. Friedell employees and family members had contributed nearly $13,000 to Rosendale's 2016 bid for state auditor and his 2014 campaign for Congress for the purpose of "debt retirement."

The chief counsel for the state auditor's office told the Free Press that she was the one who decided to drop the legal action against Friedell, but that she was not aware of the campaign donations.

 

Survey says...

There have been a number of good polls for Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonEx-House Intel chair: Intel panel is wrong forum to investigate Trump's finances The Hill's Morning Report - Trump budget reignites border security fight 2020 party politics in Puerto Rico MORE (D-Fla.). In a new Quinnipiac University poll, Nelson leads Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) by 7 points, 53 to 46 percent. Another poll from Marist College has Nelson up 3 points, 48 to 45 percent. Meanwhile, a poll by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida (UNF) shows the two tied at 45 percent.

 

Another poll by UNF released this week showed Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leading Rep. Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantisGillum launches voter-registration campaign Republicans need solutions on environment too Republicans up for reelection fear daylight with Trump MORE (R-Fla.) by 4 points in the Florida gubernatorial race. It's only the latest in a series of polls that show Gillum, a progressive African-American candidate, ahead of his Trump-backed challenger.

 

And in Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams carries a 6-point lead over Republican secretary of State Brian Kemp in the state's closely watched gubernatorial race, according to an internal poll commissioned by Abrams's campaign released on Sunday.

 

The race to replace Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeTrump's attacks on McCain exacerbate tensions with Senate GOP Schumer to introduce bill naming Senate office building after McCain amid Trump uproar Trump keeps tight grip on GOP MORE's (R) is heating up in Arizona. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) leads Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyTrump's attacks on McCain exacerbate tensions with Senate GOP Republicans defend McCain amid Trump attacks Pentagon agrees to set up McSally's military sexual assault task force MORE (R) by just 3 points according to the latest NBC News/Marist poll.

 

Paper chase

Progressive group Acronym launched its "Knock the Vote" campaign on Monday. The group spent $3 million on the voter registration effort, targeting states that allow online registration.

 

With women expected to win a record breaking number of seats this fall, Michael Bloomberg announced he will donate to more women "than any individual ever has before." He didn't give a specific figure that he would contribute, but has previously said that he's committing to spend $80 million to help Democrats in this cycle.

 

Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBannon says an O'Rourke-Harris ticket poses the greatest threat to Trump in 2020 Biden-Abrams ticket would be a genius media move Assange lawyer says he's declined to cooperate with Nadler's document requests MORE is hitting the fundraising circuit for Sen. Bob MenendezRobert (Bob) MenendezThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Manafort sentenced to total of 7.5 years in prison Acting Defense chief calls Graham an 'ally' after tense exchange William Barr is right man for the times MORE (D-N.J.) The former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee is slated to attend a fundraiser for the incumbent in Jersey City on Oct. 15, according to an invitation posted on Twitter by The New York Times' Nick Corasaniti.

 

What we're watching for

Trump will hold a rally in Wheeling, W.Va. on Saturday. He's slated to hold another rally in Johnson City, Tenn. on Oct. 1.

 

Texas will see its second Senate debate between Cruz and O'Rourke in Houston on Sunday.

 

Coming to a TV near you

Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is dropping two new TV ads in his hotly contested bid against Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R). One spot features Nelson recounting his experience aboard the Space Shuttle Columbia, while the other takes direct aim at Scott for his record in the governor's mansion. TV ads have been few and far between in Nelson's re-election bid and the latest spots signal that the three-term Democrat is ramping up his campaign.

 

Andrew Gillum (D) is out with the first attack ad of his general election bid against Ron DeSantis (R). The 30-second TV spot goes after his Republican opponent for supporting a rollback of protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions.

 

Giffords PAC, the political arm of the gun safety group founded by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), is pumping $1.5 million into an ad campaign opposing Rep. Mike CoffmanMichael (Mike) Howard CoffmanDenver Post editorial board says Gardner endorsement was 'mistake' Trump suggests Heller lost reelection bid because he was 'hostile' during 2016 presidential campaign Gardner gets latest Democratic challenge from former state senator MORE (R-Colo.). The first ad released in the campaign features a fictional text conversation between a mother and her daughter during a school shooting.

 

The ad war in North Dakota's Senate race is heating up. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) released a new spot on Monday touting his economic record. A day later, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) debuted a new ad highlighting her work on legislation intended to crack down on websites that facilitate human trafficking.

 

The two spots underscore the increasingly competitive race between Cramer and Heitkamp, who is considered among the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for re-election this year.

 

Wave Watch

Democrats see the controversy surrounding Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court and the GOP's "war on women" as playing in their favor ahead of the midterm elections, The Hill's Mike Lillis reports. They're betting that the saga could further energize women voters in November. "Beware of the wrath of women scorned, Mr. President and Majority Leader McConnell," Rep. Jackie SpeierKaren (Jackie) Lorraine Jacqueline SpeierOvernight Defense: Senate breaks with Trump on Yemen war | Shanahan hit with ethics complaint over Boeing ties | Pentagon rolls out order to implement transgender ban | Dem chair throws cold water on Space Force budget Hillicon Valley: US threatens to hold intel from Germany over Huawei | GOP senator targets FTC over privacy | Bipartisan bill would beef up 'internet of things' security | Privacy groups seize on suspended NSA program | Tesla makes U-turn Shuttering of NSA surveillance program emboldens privacy groups MORE (D-Calif.) said. "It will be your party's downfall."

 

The National Republican Congressional Committee is beginning to pull its support from select races as it seeks to shift money and resources to districts that are more likely to help the GOP maintain its majority, The Hill's Melanie Zanona reports. In one example of the changing priorities, it pulled its remaining ad spending in the Pittsburgh area, where Rep. Keith RothfusKeith James RothfusThe 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority Trump's most memorable insults and nicknames of 2018 Pennsylvania New Members 2019 MORE (R-Pa.) is desperately fighting to hang on to his seat in a race against Rep. Conor Lamb (D).

 

Democrats once saw Florida's 27th District as one of their best pick-up opportunities in 2018. Rep. Ileana Ros-LehtinenIleana Carmen Ros-LehtinenThe women in white and the trails they blaze Lobbying World Former GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop MORE's (R-Fla.) planned retirement opened a path for the party in the Democratic-leaning district. But Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a well-known Cuban-American former broadcast journalist, is starting to give Democrat Donna Shalala a run for her money, The  Hill's Max Greenwood reports.

 

Kenna Sturgeon, Rachel Cohen and Maddie Rundlett contributed to this week's Election Countdown.