Internal GOP poll: Morrisey, Manchin tied in W.Va. Senate race

Internal GOP poll: Morrisey, Manchin tied in W.Va. Senate race
© Devin Henry

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinThe Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by USAA — Ex-Ukraine ambassador testifies Trump pushed for her ouster GOP requests update on criminal referrals prompted by 2018 Kavanaugh probe Fallout from Kavanaugh confirmation felt in Washington one year later MORE (D) are in a dead heat in West Virginia's marquee Senate race, according to an internal poll released by Morrisey’s campaign.

A poll conducted by 1892 Polling for Morrisey’s campaign, which was obtained first by The Hill, shows Morrisey and Manchin tied at with 45 percent of the vote. Ten percent of the voters surveyed said they are undecided.

In this poll, Morrisey narrowly leads Manchin among independent voters by 4 points, 41 to 37 percent. But, nearly a quarter — 22 percent — of independent voters remain undecided.

ADVERTISEMENT

The poll also found that President TrumpDonald John TrumpWHCA calls on Trump to denounce video depicting him shooting media outlets Video of fake Trump shooting members of media shown at his Miami resort: report Trump hits Fox News's Chris Wallace over Ukraine coverage MORE, who won West Virginia by one of his largest margins in 2016, still has a positive approval rating in the state, with 57 percent having a favorable view of the president and 38 percent having an unfavorable view.

The internal survey is an outlier from a number of recent public polls that show Manchin, who’s been in the Senate since 2010 and seeking a full second term, with a consistent lead. The latest public poll conducted online from Emerson College had Manchin ahead by 12 points.

Other recent polls have shown a smaller margin. A MetroNews Dominion Post West Virginia poll had Manchin up 8 points and a GOP poll from Harper Polling had the Democratic senator up 6 points, saying that Morrisey benefited from a "bump" from a Trump rally.

A RealClearPolitics average of polls has Manchin ahead by just over 9 points.

Morrisey and Manchin are squaring off in one of the top Senate races of the cycle. Trump won West Virginia by more than 40 points in 2016.

Trump held a rally in August, where he gave a boost to Morrisey and highlighted the importance of sending another Republican to the Senate to keep the party’s majority. The president is holding another rally in Wheeling, W.Va., on Saturday to elevate Morrisey.

But Democrats appear to be feeling more confident about Manchin’s reelection prospects. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm is pulling about two weeks worth of ad reservations from West Virginia in October.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 24-25 and surveyed 500 likely voters in West Virginia via Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.