Cook Political Report shifts three Senate races toward Republicans

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted three Senate races in favor of Republicans as well as one Senate race toward Democrats less than five weeks out from the midterm elections.

Cook moved Senate races in Montana, Nebraska and New Jersey all in favor of Republicans. Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterTester: Our forefathers would not have tolerated Trump asking Ukraine to investigate Biden The Hill's Morning Report - Fallout from day one of Trump impeachment hearing Veterans face growing threat from online disinformation MORE (D-Mont.) faces one of the most competitive race this cycle, which was shifted from "lean Democratic" to "toss-up." Tester is running against state auditor Matt Rosendale (R) in a state where President TrumpDonald John TrumpWatergate prosecutor says that Sondland testimony was 'tipping point' for Trump In private moment with Trump, Justice Kennedy pushed for Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: book Obama: 'Everybody needs to chill out' about differences between 2020 candidates MORE won by double-digits in 2016.

Jennifer Duffy, a Senate race analyst at Cook Political Report, said Tester initially looked likely to sail to reelection with a comfortable lead in polling and Rosendale facing a crowded primary. Duffy noted that the fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's nomination is energizing the GOP base, though she still gives Tester a slight advantage in the toss-up race.

Tester has said he won't vote to confirm Kavanaugh, who faces sexual assault allegations that have threatened to derail his nomination. Kavanaugh has vehemently denied all allegations.

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“The ongoing saga over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination is also galvanizing the base as Republicans remind voters that Tester voted against Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s first nominee, and has already stated that he will vote against Kavanaugh,” Duffy said.

“While the race is moving to Toss Up based on both public and private polling showing the contest within the margin of error, we’ll put a thumb on the scale for Tester.”

Cook also moved Sen. Bob MenendezRobert (Bob) MenendezSenate passes legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters Graham blocks resolution recognizing Armenian genocide after Erdoğan meeting Trump encounters GOP resistance to investigating Hunter Biden MORE’s (D-N.J.) race from "likely Democratic" to "lean Democratic" and Sen. Deb FischerDebra (Deb) Strobel FischerSenate approves stopgap bill to prevent shutdown Eleven GOP senators sign open letter backing Sessions's comeback bid Female lawmakers make bipartisan push for more women in politics at All In Together gala MORE’s (R-Neb.) race from "likely Republican" to "solid Republican."

New Jersey has been a surprisingly competitive race in a blue state where Trump remains unpopular. Menendez faces a tough race from former pharmaceutical CEO Bob Hugin, who’s poured in tens of millions of dollars into his Senate campaign.

Polls have been all over the place with Menendez ahead of Hugin by anywhere from 2 to 11 points. Menendez is still favored to win a third term, but must overcome low favorability that stems from his past corruption case. His trial ended in a hung jury and federal prosecutors later dropped the charges.

“This race is more competitive than a Senate contest in a good year for Democrats in a state as blue as New Jersey should be,” Duffy said. “This is entirely on Menendez and the baggage he brings into the race. He maintains the advantage going into the final stretch, but the race is worth watching and moves to the Lean Democratic column.”

The election handicapper also shifted Ohio’s Senate race toward Democrats. Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownHillicon Valley: Commerce extends Huawei waiver | Senate Dems unveil privacy bill priorities | House funding measure extends surveillance program | Trump to tour Apple factory | GOP bill would restrict US data going to China Senate Democrats unveil priorities for federal privacy bill On The Money: Trump asks Supreme Court to block Dem subpoena for financial records | Kudlow 'very optimistic' for new NAFTA deal | House passes Ex-Im Bank bill opposed by Trump, McConnell MORE (D-Ohio) has consistently lead Rep. Jim RenacciJames (Jim) B. RenacciDemocrats fear Ohio slipping further away in 2020 Medicare for All won't deliver what Democrats promise GOP rep: If Mueller had found collusion, 'investigation would have wrapped up very quickly' MORE (R-Ohio) by double-digit margins, despite Trump winning the state by 8 points in 2016. Cook moves the race from "lean Democratic" to "likely Democratic."

Republicans are looking to hold onto their slim 51-49 seat majority in the Senate. The party faces a favorable map, with 10 Democratic senators up for reelection in states Trump carried.

Still, some states like Ohio have already fallen off the map for Republicans. And other competitive races that’ll likely determine which party controls the Senate are still in a dead heat.