Cook Political Report shifts three Senate races toward Republicans

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted three Senate races in favor of Republicans as well as one Senate race toward Democrats less than five weeks out from the midterm elections.

Cook moved Senate races in Montana, Nebraska and New Jersey all in favor of Republicans. Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenators scramble to save infrastructure deal Bipartisan group says it's still on track after setback on Senate floor GOP blocks infrastructure debate as negotiators near deal MORE (D-Mont.) faces one of the most competitive race this cycle, which was shifted from "lean Democratic" to "toss-up." Tester is running against state auditor Matt Rosendale (R) in a state where President TrumpDonald TrumpCuban embassy in Paris attacked by gasoline bombs Trump Jr. inches past DeSantis as most popular GOP figure in new poll: Axios Trump endorses Ken Paxton over George P. Bush in Texas attorney general race MORE won by double-digits in 2016.

Jennifer Duffy, a Senate race analyst at Cook Political Report, said Tester initially looked likely to sail to reelection with a comfortable lead in polling and Rosendale facing a crowded primary. Duffy noted that the fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's nomination is energizing the GOP base, though she still gives Tester a slight advantage in the toss-up race.

Tester has said he won't vote to confirm Kavanaugh, who faces sexual assault allegations that have threatened to derail his nomination. Kavanaugh has vehemently denied all allegations.

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“The ongoing saga over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination is also galvanizing the base as Republicans remind voters that Tester voted against Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s first nominee, and has already stated that he will vote against Kavanaugh,” Duffy said.

“While the race is moving to Toss Up based on both public and private polling showing the contest within the margin of error, we’ll put a thumb on the scale for Tester.”

Cook also moved Sen. Bob MenendezRobert (Bob) MenendezLobbying world This week: Congress starts summer sprint The Innovation and Competition Act is progressive policy MORE’s (D-N.J.) race from "likely Democratic" to "lean Democratic" and Sen. Deb FischerDebra (Deb) Strobel FischerLawmakers introduce bill allowing higher ethanol blend in gasoline after ruling Lobbying world On The Money: May jobs report to land at pivotal moment in Biden agenda | Biden, top GOP negotiator agree to continue infrastructure talks Friday MORE’s (R-Neb.) race from "likely Republican" to "solid Republican."

New Jersey has been a surprisingly competitive race in a blue state where Trump remains unpopular. Menendez faces a tough race from former pharmaceutical CEO Bob Hugin, who’s poured in tens of millions of dollars into his Senate campaign.

Polls have been all over the place with Menendez ahead of Hugin by anywhere from 2 to 11 points. Menendez is still favored to win a third term, but must overcome low favorability that stems from his past corruption case. His trial ended in a hung jury and federal prosecutors later dropped the charges.

“This race is more competitive than a Senate contest in a good year for Democrats in a state as blue as New Jersey should be,” Duffy said. “This is entirely on Menendez and the baggage he brings into the race. He maintains the advantage going into the final stretch, but the race is worth watching and moves to the Lean Democratic column.”

The election handicapper also shifted Ohio’s Senate race toward Democrats. Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownSenate Democrats press administration on human rights abuses in Philippines GOP sees debt ceiling as its leverage against Biden Sunday shows preview: Bipartisan infrastructure talks drag on; Democrats plow ahead with Jan. 6 probe MORE (D-Ohio) has consistently lead Rep. Jim RenacciJames (Jim) B. RenacciGovernors' races see flood of pro-Trump candidates Former House Republican to challenge DeWine for Ohio gubernatorial nomination The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Republicans seek to sink Jan. 6 commission MORE (R-Ohio) by double-digit margins, despite Trump winning the state by 8 points in 2016. Cook moves the race from "lean Democratic" to "likely Democratic."

Republicans are looking to hold onto their slim 51-49 seat majority in the Senate. The party faces a favorable map, with 10 Democratic senators up for reelection in states Trump carried.

Still, some states like Ohio have already fallen off the map for Republicans. And other competitive races that’ll likely determine which party controls the Senate are still in a dead heat.