Dems see blue 'tsunami' in House as Senate path narrows

Dems see blue 'tsunami' in House as Senate path narrows
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Democrats have a better shot than ever at winning back the House majority with 30 days to go before the midterm elections, but have seen their chances of taking back the Senate erode amid the controversy surrounding Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court.

The Kavanaugh saga has dominated politics for a fortnight, energizing partisans on both sides of the aisle. While no one can be certain how the next four weeks will play out, the fight seems likely to hurt Republicans further with the suburban female voters seen as pivotal in many toss-up House districts.

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But there are signs that the fight over Kavanaugh’s nomination has helped Republicans close a wide enthusiasm gap with Democrats, who have so far held the edge in momentum.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the GOP’s House campaign arm, saw a 279-percent spike in donations in the first week of October compared to the same period in September. The group did not provide a dollar figure for the haul.

And a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on Wednesday showed Democrats leading Republicans in voter enthusiasm by only 2 points, down from 10 points in July.

“The Republican Party does three things: cut taxes, kill terrorists and confirm judges,” Matt Gorman, a spokesman for the NRCC, said.

“When we do that, we fire up our base and appeal to independents. We’re about to face voters having done all three.”

That rising enthusiasm is a concern for Democrats. As early as a few weeks ago they had seen a narrow path to retake the Senate, where Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 majority, but those prospects appear to be dwindling.

Voters angered over the treatment of Kavanaugh appear to be moving toward the GOP's Senate candidates in deeply red states where President TrumpDonald John TrumpDC board rejects Trump Hotel effort to dismiss complaint seeking removal of liquor license on basis of Trump's 'character' DC board rejects Trump Hotel effort to dismiss complaint seeking removal of liquor license on basis of Trump's 'character' Mexico's immigration chief resigns amid US pressure over migrants MORE is more popular, including North Dakota, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas.

Kavanaugh was confirmed to Supreme Court on Saturday, ending days of acrimony in the Senate after three women came forward to accuse the judge of sexual misconduct, though he has strongly denied the accusations.

The vote marks a key victory for Republicans, whose base rallied around Kavanaugh, believing the judge was the victim of a partisan smear campaign.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellOvernight Defense: Trump doubles down on claim Iran attacked tankers | Iran calls accusations 'alarming' | Top nuke official quietly left Pentagon | Pelosi vows Congress will block Saudi arms sale Overnight Defense: Trump doubles down on claim Iran attacked tankers | Iran calls accusations 'alarming' | Top nuke official quietly left Pentagon | Pelosi vows Congress will block Saudi arms sale McConnell defends Trump amid backlash: 'He gets picked at every day' MORE (R-Ky.) on Saturday hailed the confirmation of Kavanaugh as a major boost to Senate Republican candidates in the midterms.

For Republicans, the biggest boost will be in a series of competitive Senate races, as Democrats must defend 10 seats in states Trump won in 2016, mainly in North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia.  

In North Dakota, two recent polls showed Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampLobbying World Pro-trade group targets Democratic leadership in push for new NAFTA On The Money: Stocks sink on Trump tariff threat | GOP caught off guard by new trade turmoil | Federal deficit grew 38 percent this fiscal year | Banks avoid taking position in Trump, Dem subpoena fight MORE (D) trailing her GOP challenger, Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerThe Hill's Morning Report — Trump pushes Mexico for 'significantly more' as tariffs loom The Hill's Morning Report — Trump pushes Mexico for 'significantly more' as tariffs loom Overnight Health Care: Liberals rip Democratic leaders for writing drug pricing bill in secret | Dems demand answers from company that shelters migrant kids | Measles cases top 1,000 MORE (N.D.), by 10- and 12-point margins.

And despite polling showing strong support for Kavanaugh in a state that Trump won by nearly 36 points, Heitkamp voted against confirming Kavanaugh, saying the Senate testimony of one of Kavanaugh's accusers, Christine Blasey Ford, had been a key factor in her decision.

In Indiana, Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyConservatives spark threat of bloody GOP primaries Anti-corruption group hits Congress for ignoring K Street, Capitol Hill 'revolving door' K Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers MORE, another vulnerable Democrat in a red state, also opposed the judge in the final confirmation vote in a state where polling has shown a tight race.

A recent Fox News poll showed Donnelly leading his Republican challenger Mike Braun by only 2 points — well within the survey's margin of error.

But another vulnerable red-state Democrat, Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinThe Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by MAPRx — Trump takes heat for remarks on help from foreign governments The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by MAPRx — Trump takes heat for remarks on help from foreign governments The Hill's Morning Report - Trump and House Democrats resume battle MORE (W.Va.), broke party ranks when he voted to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, mitigating the risk of GOP attacks in the final stretch of his reelection campaign against West Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

A GOP strategist told The Hill that private polling shows that the Kavanaugh nomination ranks as a top issue, alongside jobs and the economy, in West Virginia as well as in North Dakota.

Meanwhile Democrats are seeing deep-red states where they had hoped for a narrow path now slip away.

In Texas, momentum appeared to be shifting toward Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzTed Cruz, AOC have it right on banning former members of Congress from becoming lobbyists Ted Cruz, AOC have it right on banning former members of Congress from becoming lobbyists Overnight Health Care: Democratic bill would require insurance to cover OTC birth control | House Dems vote to overturn ban on fetal tissue research | New rule aims to expand health choices for small businesses MORE (R), who said he raised $12 million in the third fundraising quarter of the year. And a recent Quinnipiac poll showed the senator with a 9-point lead over opponent Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D).

In Tennessee, a Fox News poll showed Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnTrump puts GOP in tough spot with remarks on foreign 'dirt' Trump puts GOP in tough spot with remarks on foreign 'dirt' Senate GOP blocks bill to require campaigns report foreign election assistance MORE (R) leading former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) by 5 points.

Bredesen also faced more bad news after a major Democratic super PAC said it would not spend resources to boost his campaign after he said he supports Kavanaugh's confirmation.

Meanwhile, Republican ads seizing on the Supreme Court fight began hitting airwaves in Missouri and Montana — two red states with vulnerable Democratic incumbents — last week before the Senate voted to confirm Kavanaugh.

In Montana, an ad from Republican Matt Rosendale hit Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterManchin eyes Senate exit Manchin eyes Senate exit Democrats hope some presidential candidates drop out — and run for Senate  MORE (D) and Senate Democrats over their handling of allegations against Kavanaugh.

And in Missouri, Republican Josh Hawley accused Senate Democrats and his opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillConservatives spark threat of bloody GOP primaries Congress needs to work to combat the poverty, abuse and neglect issues that children face Lobbying world MORE (D), of creating a “circus” around the nomination in an ad of his own.

The big unknown, however, is whether the surge in Republican enthusiasm will continue to reverberate through Election Day now the the fight for Kavanaugh's nomination is over.

"If Kavanaugh is confirmed, perhaps Republicans will feel less of a need to turn out," Michael Cornfield, the co-director of the George Washington University Poll, told Hill.TV Friday ahead of the confirmation vote.

“If he's turned down, [Republicans] may surpass Democrats intensity,” he added.

But the picture is different for the House, where strategists warn Kavanaugh’s confirmation will likely fuel Democratic turnout in the midterms.

The nomination fight sparked major protests that erupted in the Senate, and hundreds of demonstrators — many of whom were women — were arrested days before the final vote.

Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to ram through Kavanaugh’s confirmation, ignoring credible allegations of sexual misconduct and the nominee’s fiery testimony last week before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Democrats have a much more favorable map as they look to flip the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House, with many of the key battleground races being fought in suburban districts where Republicans have shown signs of struggling to win over women.

Public polls show a widening gender gap, with women tending to favor Democrats over Republicans, and outrage over Kavanaugh’s nomination could drive the wedge even deeper.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, currently rates 31 House races as "toss-ups," while 12 are seen as "leaning Democratic," after recently shifting a slew of races in favor of Democrats, including the seats held by Reps. Kevin YoderKevin Wayne YoderK Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers Kansas Senate race splits wide open without Pompeo Mike Pompeo to speak at Missouri-Kansas Forum amid Senate bid speculation MORE (R-Kan.), Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloThe Hill's Morning Report - Trump, Biden go toe-to-toe in Iowa The Hill's Morning Report - Trump, Biden go toe-to-toe in Iowa Ex-GOP lawmakers are face of marijuana blitz MORE (R-Fla.), and Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) LoveCongressional Women's Softball team releases roster The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority Juan Williams: Racial shifts spark fury in Trump and his base MORE (R-Utah).

The winds favoring Democrats are seen in other ways.

Sixty Democratic House hopefuls topped the $1 million mark in fundraising between July and September, while 30 passed the $2 million mark and eight raked in more than $3 million, Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said Thursday.

And the DCCC itself has also seen a surge in fundraising. The group announced Friday that small-dollar donations increased 467 percent in the last week of September compared to the prior week, the committee said Friday. The total amount raised that week was up 277 percent to $4.38 million.

Democratic House hopefuls have sought in recent weeks to capitalize on Kavanaugh's nomination.

In New Jersey’s 7th District, for example, Democrat Tom Malinowski hit Rep. Leonard LanceLeonard LancePush for ‘Medicare for all’ worries centrist Dems Incoming Dem lawmaker: Trump 'sympathizes' with leaders 'accused of moral transgressions' On The Money: Why the tax law failed to save the GOP majority | Grassley opts for Finance gavel, setting Graham up for Judiciary | Trump says China eager for trade deal | Facebook reeling after damning NYT report MORE (R) in an ad for dismissing the sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh.

And in Georgia’s 6th District, Democrat Lucy McBath criticized her Republican opponent, Rep. Karen HandelKaren Christine HandelFreshman House Dems surge past GOP in money race Freshman House Dems surge past GOP in money race McBath fundraising off 'get back in the kitchen' remarks MORE (R-Ga.), for her previous praise of Kavanaugh, telling The Associated Press in an interview last month that Handel “has stood by Brett Kavanaugh and refused to speak out on any of these accusations.”

Jon Reinish, a New York-based Democratic strategist, said that Kavanaugh's confirmation had angered Democrats and predicted they would turn out in force, while Republicans would be less motivated.

"The Republican base will see that they got what they wanted," he said. "I don't think that people turn out to say thank you."

Reinish said that the confirmation would fuel much more than a Democratic "blue wave" in November. He predicted instead a "tsunami."

"If the Republicans thought they had a problem before, they have an earthquake now, because you cannot understate the rage and you cannot understate the emotion and you cannot understate the mobilization of Democrats after this," he said.

— Lisa Hagen contributed