Election Countdown: Florida candidates face new test from hurricane | GOP optimistic about expanding Senate majority | Top-tier Dems start heading to Iowa | Bloomberg rejoins Dems | Trump heads to Pennsylvania rally

Election Countdown: Florida candidates face new test from hurricane | GOP optimistic about expanding Senate majority | Top-tier Dems start heading to Iowa | Bloomberg rejoins Dems | Trump heads to Pennsylvania rally
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This is Election Countdown, The Hill's newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please). Click here to sign up.

 

We're 27 days from the 2018 midterm elections and 755 days until the 2020 elections.

 

Hurricane Michael is bearing down on the northeastern Gulf Coast of Florida, making it the first ever recorded Category 4 storm to make landfall in the panhandle.

While the focus in the coming days and weeks will (and should) be on the threat it poses to the region and its people, the storm amounts to a sort of October surprise for the midterms in Florida. In the days before the storm hit, candidates for statewide offices scrambled to show that they're ready to lead the state through trying times.

Andrew Gillum, the progressive mayor of Tallahassee who's running for governor, is seeking to overcome criticism over his handling of Hurricane Hermine in 2016, which left his city without power for days. He's spent recent days briefing local leaders and officials, covering the airwaves with news show appearances urging residents to prepare for the storm and filling sandbags.

Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantisGillum to speak at gathering of top Dem donors: report GOP opens door to new NC election amid fraud claims Gillum reached out to O’Rourke amid 2020 speculation: report MORE, Gillum's Republican opponent, has been handing out emergency supplies in advance of Hurricane Michael. In a video posted on Twitter Monday, DeSantis warned that residents "need to be prepared" and "follow the local authorities and the state authorities."

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Gillum slammed DeSantis in an interview on MSNBC on Wednesday after the Florida GOP declined to pull two attack ads off the air during the hurricane.

"We can't recall a time where candidates for statewide office have not pulled down negative ads during hurricane season," Gillum said. "You got a whole region of our state where people are fleeing for their lives, anticipating what is a life-threatening event impacting this state."

In the state's Senate race, Gov. Rick Scott (R) spent the days leading up to Hurricane Michael's landfall delivering briefings, holding emergency meetings and giving TV interviews warning of the dangers posed by the storm. His opponent, incumbent Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonMcCaskill: 'Too many embarrassing uncles' in the Senate Bill Nelson uses farewell address to remind colleagues ‘no one person is above the law’ Coal supporter Manchin named top Dem on Senate Energy Committee MORE (D-Fla.), was among several lawmakers who urged President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll The Memo: Cohen fans flames around Trump Memo Comey used to brief Trump on dossier released: report MORE to declare a state of emergency in Florida ahead of Hurricane Michael.

Hurricanes can carry political ramifications. The George W. Bush administration's widely panned handling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 drew nationwide scorn and helped fuel Democrats' takeover of the House a year later. Likewise, the Trump administration's response to Hurricanes Maria and Irma in Puerto Rico last year fueled intense criticism from territory officials and mainland Democrats.

 

Senate showdown

Republicans are growing increasingly optimistic about their chances of expanding their narrow Senate majority after the polarizing confirmation battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughChief justice of California Supreme Court leaves GOP over Kavanaugh confirmation Doug Jones: Carmakers 'scared to death' over Trump tariffs McCaskill: 'Kavanaugh spectacle' made the difference in midterm loss MORE. The GOP has seen candidates in Texas and Tennessee strengthen their position and make it less likely Democrats can pull of upsets in the red state strongholds. They are also bullish about their chances of knocking off Sens. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampHatch warns Senate 'in crisis' in farewell speech Dem senators Heitkamp, Donnelly urge bipartisanship in farewell speeches House passes bipartisan bill aimed at reversing rising maternal mortality rates MORE (N.D.) and Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillThe Year Ahead: Tech braces for new scrutiny from Washington McCaskill: 'Too many embarrassing uncles' in the Senate FEC votes to allow lawmakers to use campaign funds for personal cybersecurity MORE (Mo.), two Democrats who voted against Kavanaugh.

  

Senate hopeful, Rep. Beto O'RourkeRobert (Beto) Francis O'RourkeBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll Pollster says likely Dem 2020 nominee has not emerged in national conversation yet O'Rourke doubles support in CNN poll of Dem presidential race MORE (D-Texas), is convincing white evangelical women to go blue, according to The New York Times. Although strong opponents of abortion rights, these women approve of O'Rourke's character-- one they say contrasts with that of Trump.

 

O'Rourke will appear solo at a CNN town hall on Oct. 18 after Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll The Memo: Cohen fans flames around Trump Biden team discussed 2020 run with O'Rourke as VP: report MORE (R-Texas) declined CNN's offer. The town hall will be hosted in McAllen, Texas, right along the U.S.-Mexico border. CNN will hold other town halls this month including an Oct. 16 one featuring Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and his challenger, Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), and an Oct. 21 forum for Florida's gubernatorial candidates: Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum.

 

Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyArizona governor eyes several possible Kyl replacements The Hill's 12:30 Report – Cohen says Trump knew payments were wrong | GOP in turmoil over Trump shutdown threat | Kyl to resign from Senate at year's end Jon Kyl to resign from Senate on Dec. 31 MORE (R-Ariz.) will get help in the final weeks of the midterms from two political heavyweights: former President George W. Bush and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyTrump’s own undocumented help highlights plight of many immigrants Trump attorney general pick a prolific donor to GOP candidates, groups: report O’Rourke is fireball, but not all Dems are sold MORE, who's currently running for a Utah Senate seat. The Arizona Republic reported that Romney, who is Mormon, will hold a rally on Friday in Arizona's East Valley, which has a sizable Mormon population. Bush will travel on Oct. 19 to host a private fundraiser.

 

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) criticized Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonMemo Comey used to brief Trump on dossier released: report Trump will likely win reelection in 2020 Lanny Davis says Nixon had more respect for the Constitution than Trump MORE for saying that Democrats couldn't be civil with Republicans. "That's ridiculous," Heitkamp said on CNN's "Anderson Cooper 360". "I mean I can't imagine how you get anything done if you don't bring civility back into politics, and that goes for both sides." Heitkamp is running in a tough reelection race in a state Trump won by 36 points in 2016.

 

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will launch new TV and digital ads in Arizona and Tennessee on Thursday, highlighting the Republican Senate candidates' votes to pass the GOP tax law.

 

House showdown

Democrats seeking to knock off Republican incumbents in two critical districts in the Twin City suburbs have put a dying art at the center of their campaigns: The town hall meeting, reports The Hill's Reid Wilson from Minnesota.

 

Survey says…

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) maintains a comfortable lead in his reelection, holding a 20-point lead in the race against his Democratic competitor, Ben Jealous, according to a poll from The Washington Post/University of Maryland.

 

Cruz leads O'Rourke by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent in a new New York Times/Siena College poll. The survey found that 3 percent remain undecided.

 

A new ABC15-OH Insights poll found that Rep. Martha McSally (R) leads Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) in Arizona's competitive Senate race. McSally holds a six-point lead with 47 percent of likely voters supporting her, according to the poll.

 

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D- Mo.) is in a close race with Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R), according to a new poll from Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics. The poll found that 45 percent of likely voters back Hawley, while 44 percent back McCaskill.

 

According to a poll released by SurveyUSA for WXIA-TV, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) leads the state's gubernatorial race narrowly. His Democratic competitor, former state House Democratic Leader Stacey Abrams (D) trails him by 2 points.

 

Paper chase

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck GrassleyCharles (Chuck) Ernest GrassleyFive takeaways from the court decision striking down ObamaCare The Year Ahead: Tough tests loom for Trump trade agenda Senate heads toward floor fight on criminal justice bill MORE (R-Iowa) says he will counter the $3 million raised for Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsOvernight Defense: Senate bucks Trump with Yemen war vote, resolution calling crown prince 'responsible' for Khashoggi killing | House briefing on Saudi Arabia fails to move needle | Inhofe casts doubt on Space Force House Dems follow Senate action with resolution to overturn IRS donor disclosure guidance Senate votes to overturn IRS guidance limiting donor disclosure MORE's (R-Maine) future Democratic opponent following her controversial vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

 

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has cancelled TV and radio ad reservations in Texas's 23rd District, where Rep. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdCongressional scorecard finds federal agencies improving on IT Juan Williams: Nowhere to go for black Republicans Texas lawmakers introduce legislation aimed at helping border counties identify missing migrants MORE (R-Texas) is running for reelection, from Oct. 16 through Election Day, according to National Journal. It's a signal that Republicans are feeling good about Hurd's reelection chances. A NYT/Siena poll from last month had Hurd up over Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones by 8 points, even though Clinton carried the district in 2016.

 

Race for the White House

Top-tier Democratic presidential hopefuls are quickly making their way to Iowa--which holds the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 3, 2020--reports The Hill's Amie Parnes. Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll Gillibrand says she's worried about top options in Dem 2020 poll being white men Biden team discussed 2020 run with O'Rourke as VP: report MORE (D-N.J.) was in Iowa over the weekend for the first time since the 2016 election. Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll The 2020 Democratic nomination will run through the heart of black America Gillibrand says she's worried about top options in Dem 2020 poll being white men MORE (D-Calif.) and Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll Gillibrand says she's worried about top options in Dem 2020 poll being white men Trump will likely win reelection in 2020 MORE (I-Vt.) are both planning to travel to the Hawkeye State later this month. Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll The 2020 Democratic nomination will run through the heart of black America Gillibrand says she's worried about top options in Dem 2020 poll being white men MORE (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe BidenJoseph (Joe) Robinette BidenBiden, Sanders lead field in Iowa poll The 2020 Democratic nomination will run through the heart of black America Gillibrand says she's worried about top options in Dem 2020 poll being white men MORE, though, currently have no scheduled visits to Iowa on the horizon.

 

Speaking of Biden, he said he doesn't plan to run for president in 2020 "at this point." "I think there are many people in the Democratic Party who can defeat Trump," he said when asked whether he would have better foreign policy than Trump. "And not a single aspiring candidate that I can think of for the nomination--and I am not one at this point--does not have a better understanding and formulation of American foreign policy than President Trump, in my view."

 

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who's been a political independent, re-registered on Wednesday as a Democrat. He has previously said he will consider running for president in 2020, but will make that decision after the November midterm elections.

 

What we're watching for

Senate Debate schedule:

--Friday night debate in Wisconsin

--Sunday night debates in West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan

Trump rally schedule:

--Wednesday rally in Erie, Pa. at 7 p.m. ET (Trump is going ahead with the rally despite Hurricane Michael pounding the Florida coast.)

--Friday rally in Lebanon, Ohio at 7 p.m. ET

--Saturday rally in Richmond, Ky. at 7 p.m. ET

 

Coming to a TV near you

Democrats' House Majority PAC partnered with Ady Barkan, who's been diagnosed with ALS and made national headlines when he confronted Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeThe Hill's 12:30 Report – Cohen says Trump knew payments were wrong | GOP in turmoil over Trump shutdown threat | Kyl to resign from Senate at year's end Overnight Defense: Senate bucks Trump with Yemen war vote, resolution calling crown prince 'responsible' for Khashoggi killing | House briefing on Saudi Arabia fails to move needle | Inhofe casts doubt on Space Force Flake asks Daily Show where he can get a blanket emblazoned with his 'meaningless tweets' MORE (R-Ariz.) to oppose the tax bill last year. Barkan and his wife appear in an ad backing Democrat Katie Hill who is looking to unseat Rep. Steve Knight (R) in California's 25th congressional district.

 

The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund launched a new TV and digital ad campaign to elevate Rep. Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) LoveVoters on both sides chose people who pledged to protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid Juan Williams: Nowhere to go for black Republicans WHIP LIST: Pelosi seeks path to 218 MORE (R-Utah), who's running against Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams (D). "The choice is clear: Mia will help grow the economy, McAdams will grow government."

 

What they're saying

In an op-ed for The Hill, former Rep. Steve IsraelSteven (Steve) J. IsraelThe Hill's Morning Report — Where the shutdown fight stands Mania at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue A father and son unite the nation MORE (D-N.Y.), who used to chair the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), dives into why Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinOvernight Defense: Senate bucks Trump with Yemen war vote, resolution calling crown prince 'responsible' for Khashoggi killing | House briefing on Saudi Arabia fails to move needle | Inhofe casts doubt on Space Force Hillicon Valley — Presented by AT&T — New momentum for privacy legislation | YouTube purges spam videos | Apple plans B Austin campus | Iranian hackers targeted Treasury officials | FEC to let lawmakers use campaign funds for cyber Manchin puts hold on FCC nomination over wireless internet fund delay MORE (D-W.Va.), a conservative Democrat up for reelection in a state Trump won by 42 points, was the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh's confirmation.

 

Dov S. Zakheim, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute, explores outgoing UN ambassador Nikki HaleyNimrata (Nikki) HaleyShowdown at the Security Council? North Korea evading US sanctions: report Haley: I used Trump’s ‘unpredictable’ behavior to my advantage at UN MORE's political future in an op-ed for The Hill.

 

Election Countdown was written by Lisa Hagen, Max Greenwood, Rachel Cohen, Kenna Sturgeon and James Wellemeyer.