Poll: Democrats hold single-digit leads in Ohio

Poll: Democrats hold single-digit leads in Ohio
© Stefani Reynolds

Democratic candidates in Ohio’s senate and gubernatorial races hold single-digit leads against their Republican opponents, according to an Emerson College poll released Monday

Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownWhat Trump's orders will and won't do for payroll taxes, unemployment benefits Overnight Defense: Guardsman to testify Lafayette Square clearing was 'unprovoked escalation' | Dems push for controversial Pentagon nominee to withdraw | Watchdog says Pentagon not considering climate change risks to contractors Democrats urge controversial Pentagon policy nominee to withdraw MORE (D-Ohio), who is running for a third term in the Senate, has a six-point edge among likely voters against Rep. Jim RenacciJames (Jim) B. RenacciOhio is suddenly a 2020 battleground Democrats fear Ohio slipping further away in 2020 Medicare for All won't deliver what Democrats promise MORE (R-Ohio). About 49 percent of likely voters support the incumbent, while 43 percent support Renacci. About six percent of likely voters say they are undecided. 

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Brown is one of 10 Democratic senators defending seats in states President TrumpDonald John TrumpTeachers union launches 0K ad buy calling for education funding in relief bill FDA head pledges 'we will not cut corners' on coronavirus vaccine Let our values drive COVID-19 liability protection MORE won in 2016. Trump won Ohio by about eight points.

Trump endorsed Renacci early in the race, tweeting in April, “.@JimRenacci has worked so hard on Tax Reductions, Illegal Immigration, the Border and Crime. I need Jim very badly to help our agenda and to keep MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He will be a fantastic Senator for the Great State of Ohio, and has my full endorsement!” He campaigned with the congressman earlier this month. 

But the president’s endorsement may not end up helping his chosen candidate. Trump’s favorability rating is underwater with likely Ohio voters, with 47 percent having a favorable view of him, while 49 percent have an unfavorable view. Renacci has cast himself as a staunch ally of the president.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Likely D,” while an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics has Brown up 13.5 points.

Meanwhile, in the race for The Buckeye State’s governor’s mansion, Democratic candidate Richard CordrayRichard Adams CordrayConsumer bureau revokes payday lending restrictions Supreme Court ruling could unleash new legal challenges to consumer bureau Supreme Court rules consumer bureau director can be fired at will MORE has a narrow three-point against Republican Mike DeWine.

About 49 percent of likely Ohio voters support Cordray, the former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under the Obama administration, while 46 percent support DeWine, Ohio’s attorney general.

DeWine and Cordray are running to replace the term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R), who ran for president in 2016.

Cordray enjoys a comfortable net-positive favorability rating, with 47 percent of likely Ohio voters having a favorable view of him while 36 percent have an unfavorable view. DeWine’s favorability rating is net-negative, with 41 percent of likely voters having a favorable view of him and 44 percent having an unfavorable view.

Trump also endorsed DeWine, tweeting in May after the Republican primary, “Congratulations to Mike Dewine on his big win in the Great State of Ohio. He will be a great Governor with a heavy focus on HealthCare and Jobs.  His Socialist opponent in November should not do well, a big failure in last job!

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up,” while an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics has Cordray up 2.7 points.

Should Brown win reelection and Cordray replace Kasich, it could represent a renewed strength in states broke from tradition by supporting Trump in 2016. 

Emerson college surveyed 566 likely Ohio voters from Oct. 26-28. The poll has a credibility interval of +/- 4.3 percent.