For a solid hour on Tuesday, all eyes will be trained on Lexington, Ky., and its suburbs, where Rep. Andy BarrAndy BarrRepublicans press Biden administration to maintain sanctions against Taliban World Bank suspends aid to Afghanistan after Taliban takeover GOP lawmaker aims to block Taliban from accessing international funds MORE (R) is running for reelection against retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath (D).
That’s because Kentucky closes its polling places at 6 p.m. local time — and Barr’s 6th District is the only competitive race based entirely within the Eastern time zone.
Here’s an hour-by-hour look at how Election Day will unfold, and what to watch as the polls close.
6 p.m. Eastern — The Canary in Coal Country
Barr represents a district that voted for President TrumpDonald TrumpCheney says a lot of GOP lawmakers have privately encouraged her fight against Trump Republicans criticizing Afghan refugees face risks DeVos says 'principles have been overtaken by personalities' in GOP MORE by a 15-point margin in 2016 — but it’s a seat with Democratic roots, one long held by former Rep. Ben Chandler (D). If McGrath pulls off an early upset, Republicans are likely going to have a very bad night. But if Barr hangs on, as polling indicates, the GOP’s House majority is still in play.
7 p.m. — The First Hints
Six states close their polling places at 7 p.m., from liberal Vermont to conservative South Carolina, and the rest of Kentucky.
Vote-counting will begin in two of the hottest races in the country: Georgia’s gubernatorial race, a fierce battle between Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) and state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), and Indiana’s Senate race, where Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyRepublicans may regret restricting reproductive rights Sanders traveling to Iowa, Indiana to pitch Biden's spending package Supreme Court battle could wreak havoc with Biden's 2020 agenda MORE (D) faces former state Rep. Mike Braun (R).
If Donnelly loses quickly, it would augur poorly for other red-state Democratic senators. But if he prevails, Sens. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillRepublicans may regret restricting reproductive rights Sunday shows preview: States deal with fallout of Ida; Texas abortion law takes effect Giuliani to stump for Greitens in Missouri MORE (D-Mo.) and Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampWashington's oldest contact sport: Lobbyists scrum to dilute or kill Democrats' tax bill Progressives prepare to launch counterattack in tax fight Business groups aim to divide Democrats on .5T spending bill MORE (D-N.D.) may find reason for optimism.
In Virginia, voters in the Richmond suburbs and Norfolk will reveal some of the first hints of the size of the Democratic advantage in the House. GOP Reps. Scott TaylorScott William TaylorElaine Luria endorses McAuliffe for governor in Virginia Democratic primary Luria holds onto Virginia House seat Chamber-backed Democrats embrace endorsements in final stretch MORE and Dave Brat have tough fights on their hands, and a Democrat is even making a run at outgoing Rep. Tom GarrettThomas (Tom) Alexander GarrettInternal poll shows tight race in Virginia House race Internal poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing in Virginia House contest GOP congressman loses primary after officiating gay wedding MORE’s (R) seat. If Democrats take two of those, the Republican majority is probably gone.
7:30 p.m. — A Blue Moon and a Blue Dog
Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia at this time. Two red-state Senate Democrats will see their fates decided: Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownSenate poised to battle over Biden's pick of big bank critic Biden taps big bank skeptic to for top regulatory post Schumer announces Senate-House deal on tax 'framework' for .5T package MORE (Ohio) is likely to cruise to reelection, and Sen. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinPelosi sets Thursday vote on bipartisan infrastructure bill Budget impasses mark a critical turning point in Biden's presidency Democrats urge Biden to go all in with agenda in limbo MORE (W.Va.) is favored to win, but in a much tighter race.
Democrats will get the first signs of their ability to flip Republican-held governorships across the Midwest when Ohio begins counting its ballots. Former state Attorney General Richard Cordray (D), who was later head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington, is fighting his successor, Mike DeWine (R), for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R).
North Carolina experiences what they call a "blue moon" election, a rare year in which neither the governor nor a senator is on the ballot. That probably means lower turnout, but Democrats are running surprisingly strong races against Reps. George HoldingGeorge Edward Bell HoldingHouse Republicans who didn't sign onto the Texas lawsuit Lara Trump leading Republicans in 2022 North Carolina Senate poll Rundown of the House seats Democrats, GOP flipped on Election Day MORE (R) and Ted BuddTheodore (Ted) Paul BuddAnti-Trump Republicans on the line in 2022 too On The Money — Yellen sounds alarm on national default GOP lawmakers urge Cardona against executive student loan wipeout MORE (R), and for a seat held by Rep. Robert PittengerRobert Miller PittengerBottom Line North Carolina reporter says there could be 'new crop' of GOP candidates in 9th Congressional District race North Carolina board calls for new election in contested House race MORE (R), who lost his primary.
8 p.m. — The Big Enchilada
Sixteen states and the District of Columbia are done voting by 8 p.m. Eastern, including a handful of states that will give a fuller picture of the electorate’s mood.
Governor’s races will be decided in Alabama, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee.
The biggest prize for Democrats would be in Florida, scene of a nasty battle between Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) and former Rep. Ron DeSantisRon DeSantisAmerica isn't first — it's far behind — and studies point to Republicans Where election review efforts stand across the US Schools without mask mandate 3.5 times more likely to have COVID-19 outbreaks: CDC study MORE (R). In Connecticut, businessman Bob Stefanowski (R) is running a particularly tough race against progressive hero Ned Lamont (D). Expect Govs. Charlie Baker (R) of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan (R) of Maryland to win reelection easily, thanks to ticket-splitters who will also reelect Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenIn defense of share buybacks Democrats urge Biden to go all in with agenda in limbo In Washington, the road almost never taken MORE (D-Mass.) and Ben CardinBenjamin (Ben) Louis CardinLawmakers say innovation, trade rules key to small business gains The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Alibaba - Biden jumps into frenzied Dem spending talks House Democrat: Staff is all vaccinated 'because they don't like to be dead' MORE (D-Md.).
Vote-counting also begins in key Senate races in Florida, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. In Mississippi, expect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy (D) to head to a late November runoff.
The House battleground expands to Democratic targets in Florida, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma — where a PAC linked to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is making a late play against Rep. Steve RussellSteven (Steve) Dane RussellKendra Horn concedes to Stephanie Bice in Oklahoma, flipping seat back to GOP GOP women's group launches six-figure campaign for House candidate Bice Bice wins Oklahoma GOP runoff to face Horn in November MORE (R) — and Pennsylvania. Democrats are going to pick up a handful of seats in Pennsylvania, where the state Supreme Court ordered district maps redrawn earlier this year.
Voters in the District of Columbia are likely to reelect Mayor Muriel Bowser (D).
Delaware and Rhode Island start their vote counts at 8 p.m., too.
8:30 p.m. — The (French) Hill to Die On
Arkansas voters are likely to reelect Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R). The only truly competitive race here is in the state’s 2nd District, where Rep. French HillJames (French) French HillBiden to speak at UN general assembly in person Lobbying world Top Democrat leads bipartisan trip to Middle East MORE (R) faces a tough challenge from state Rep. Clarke Tucker (D). Hill is likely to win reelection, but the district has Democratic roots: Hill’s predecessor took over for Rep. Vic Snyder, a Democrat who held the Little Rock-based seat for 14 years.
9 p.m. — Go West, Young Man
The first Mountain West states start to close at this time, along with most of the Midwest.
Voters in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin are electing senators. Democrats are hopeful that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) can defeat a charging Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyFive takeaways from Arizona's audit results The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by AT&T - Senate passes infrastructure bill, budget resolution; Cuomo resigns Schumer, Tim Scott lead as Senate fundraising pace heats up MORE (R) in Arizona, while Republicans believe Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerOn The Money — Democrats rush to finish off infrastructure GOP warns McConnell won't blink on debt cliff The Memo: Biden beats Trump again — this time in the Senate MORE (R) will oust Heitkamp in North Dakota. And Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzFBI investigating alleged assault on Fort Bliss soldier at Afghan refugee camp The Memo: Biden's immigration problems reach crescendo in Del Rio Matthew McConaughey on potential political run: 'I'm measuring it' MORE (R) has a leg up on Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), despite the Democrat’s absolutely mammoth fundraising performance.
New governors will be elected in Colorado, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Dakota and Wyoming, all states where the incumbents are termed out. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is in the fight of his life, while Govs. Andrew Cuomo (D) of New York, Doug Ducey (R) of Arizona and Greg Abbott (R) of Texas are skating toward another term.
Democrats and Republicans are battling over House districts in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Texas and Wisconsin.
Voters in Louisiana don’t have many competitive races to decide, but they shouldn’t feel left out: The race for governor in 2019 kicks off just as soon as the polls close on Tuesday.
10 p.m. — Defining the Wave
If a Democratic blue wave is forming, we’ll get a sense of how high it is when polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.
Reps. Rod Blum (R) and David YoungDavid Edmund YoungFirst-term Democrat presses for coronavirus relief agreement this year Axne wins reelection in Iowa Democrats lead in 3 of 4 Iowa House races: poll MORE (R) face stiff challenges in Iowa, and both could lose without a tremendous wave breaking. But what about GOP Rep. Steve KingSteven (Steve) Arnold KingGOP brawls over Trump on eve of first Jan. 6 hearing Pence to visit Iowa to headline event for congressman Former Steve King challenger on rural voters in GOP states: 'They hate Democrats' MORE? While his district is much more conservative, King has become a lightning rod for associating himself with white supremacists across the country and around the world.
If Democrats are having a rough night in Senate races, this is the hour that will demonstrate just how bad it’s going: Their top target is Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerTexas abortion law creates 2022 headache for GOP Heller won't say if Biden won election Ex-Sen. Dean Heller announces run for Nevada governor MORE (R-Nev.), who’s running even with Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenHeller won't say if Biden won election Former Sen. Heller to run for Nevada governor Photos of the Week: Infrastructure vote, India floods and a bear MORE (D) in most polls. Democrats are defending Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterThree dead, dozens injured after Amtrak train derailed in Montana The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Alibaba - Biden jumps into frenzied Dem spending talks Congress facing shutdown, debt crisis with no plan B MORE (Mont.), who is in a surprisingly close and late-breaking race against state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R).
In Utah, Rep. Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) Love'The View' plans series of conservative women as temporary McCain replacements Black Republican advocates his case for CBC membership Black women look to build upon gains in coming elections MORE (R) finds herself in an unexpectedly tough battle; one poll shows her losing to Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D).
11 p.m. — The Best Coast
Polls close in four of the five states that touch the Pacific Ocean, along with Idaho.
Voters in California and Idaho are electing new governors. California voters, especially those in the Central Valley and Orange County, will decide the fates of a handful of endangered House Republicans.
In Washington, voters will decide a hard-fought contest for a congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Dave ReichertDavid (Dave) George ReichertRep. Kim Schrier defends Washington House seat from GOP challenger Washington Rep. Kim Schrier wins primary Mail ballot surge places Postal Service under spotlight MORE (R). If voters are really in the mood for change, Reps. Cathy McMorris RodgersCathy McMorris RodgersHouse passes bill to ensure abortion access in response to Texas law Biden administration rolls out clean car goals Biden, Pelosi struggle with end of eviction ban MORE (R) and Jaime Herrera BeutlerJaime Lynn Herrera BeutlerThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Alibaba - Democrats argue price before policy amid scramble The Memo: Never Trumpers sink into gloom as Gonzalez bows out Kinzinger says Trump 'winning' because many Republicans 'have remained silent' MORE (R) could also have uncomfortable nights — remember, no state kicked out more Democratic incumbents in the 1994 GOP wave than Washington.
Republicans have one more shot for an upset, this time in Oregon, where Gov. Kate Brown (D) is in a more difficult than expected battle for reelection.
Hawaii voters are likely to reelect Gov. David Ige (D) and send former Rep. Ed Case (D) back to Congress.
1 a.m. — The Aleutian Solution
The vast majority of polling places in Alaska close at midnight Eastern time, but seven hours after the first polls close in Kentucky, voters in parts of the Aleutian Islands will cast the final ballots of the 2018 general election.
Alaska voters will elect a new governor, after Gov. Bill Walker (I) dropped his reelection bid late last month. And one recent poll showed the dean of the House, Rep. Don YoungDonald (Don) Edwin YoungWHIP LIST: How House Democrats say they'll vote on infrastructure bill Republicans are the 21st-century Know-Nothing Party OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Biden suspends Arctic oil leases issued under Trump | Experts warn US needs to better prepare for hurricane season | Progressives set sights on Civilian Climate Corps MORE (R), in trouble against education activist Alyse Galvin (D).