Poll: Rosen leads Heller by 4 points in Nevada Senate race

Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenThe 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority The Hill's 12:30 Report: Manafort sentenced to total of 7.5 years in prison Female Dems see double standard in Klobuchar accusations MORE (D-Nev.) holds a 4-point lead over vulnerable Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerTrump suggests Heller lost reelection bid because he was 'hostile' during 2016 presidential campaign Trump picks ex-oil lobbyist David Bernhardt for Interior secretary Oregon Dem top recipient of 2018 marijuana industry money, study finds MORE (R-Nev.), according to a new poll released a day before the pivotal midterm elections.

The Emerson College poll released Tuesday found Rosen opening up a small lead over Heller among likely voters surveyed, 49 percent to 45 percent, which is just outside the poll’s 3-point margin of error. Four percent of likely voters remain undecided in the final stretch.

Nevada’s Senate race has been one of the most hotly contested Senate races this cycle, with polls mostly showing a dead heat in the run-up to Election Day. Heller is the only GOP senator up for reelection in a state that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonOvernight Health Care: CDC pushes for expanding HIV testing, treatment | Dem group launches ads attacking Trump on Medicare, Medicaid cuts | Hospitals, insurers spar over surprise bills | O'Rourke under pressure from left on Medicare for all O'Rourke faces sharp backlash from left Dem strategist says South Carolina will be first 'real test' for O'Rourke MORE won in 2016.

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It’s a big shift from Emerson’s last poll from mid-October, which had Heller ahead by 7 points. More recent public polls have shown a much tighter race, which has given Republicans hope they can hold on to the seat and increase their Senate majority overall.

Forty-seven percent of respondents view President TrumpDonald John TrumpWarren: 'White supremacists pose a threat to the United States like any other terrorist group' National Enquirer paid 0,000 for Bezos texts: report Santorum: Trump should 'send emails to a therapist' instead of tweeting MORE favorably, while 48 percent of respondents said they view him unfavorably. Heller has tied himself closely to Trump in his Senate campaign and has a similar but slightly lower favorability rating, 43 percent (compared to 46 percent of respondents who viewed him unfavorably). Rosen has a split favorability rating with 42 percent of respondents reporting a favorable view of her to 42 percent who said they held an unfavorable view.

The poll also found Democratic candidates leading in Nevada’s two competitive House races, where Democrats are playing defense.

In Nevada’s 3rd District, Democratic philanthropist Susie Lee holds a comfortable 9-point lead over Republican businessman and perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian. The two are competing for Rosen’s seat.

Meanwhile, in Nevada’s 4th District, former Rep. Steven HorsfordSteven Alexander HorsfordDems warn against deporting former Trump golf course workers Ten Dem lawmakers added to House Ways and Means Committee Nevada Democrat calls Trump’s focus on border wall ‘unfortunate and unnecessary’ MORE (D) is ahead of former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R) by 4 points, just outside the margins, in the race to replace outgoing Rep. Ruben KihuenRuben Jesus KihuenNevada Dem sanctioned for sexual misconduct announces city council bid Dem gains put Sunbelt in play for 2020 Pence aide defends Meadows after ethics panel reprimand: He ‘had my back’ MORE (D-Nev.).

Nevada’s gubernatorial race is much tighter, with Democrat Steve Sisolak leading Republican Adam Laxalt by just 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent among respondents to the Emerson poll. Two percent are undecided.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 1 to 4 and surveyed 1,197 adults. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.