Poll: Rosen leads Heller by 4 points in Nevada Senate race

Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenInflux of women in Congress can improve women’s retirement security Overnight Health Care: DOJ seeks extension in ObamaCare lawsuit due to shutdown | Poll finds voters oppose court ruling against health law Press: White House not only for white males MORE (D-Nev.) holds a 4-point lead over vulnerable Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerTrump’s shifting Cabinet to introduce new faces Trump's most memorable insults and nicknames of 2018 Progressive strategist says changing demographics will help Dems MORE (R-Nev.), according to a new poll released a day before the pivotal midterm elections.

The Emerson College poll released Tuesday found Rosen opening up a small lead over Heller among likely voters surveyed, 49 percent to 45 percent, which is just outside the poll’s 3-point margin of error. Four percent of likely voters remain undecided in the final stretch.

Nevada’s Senate race has been one of the most hotly contested Senate races this cycle, with polls mostly showing a dead heat in the run-up to Election Day. Heller is the only GOP senator up for reelection in a state that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonDershowitz to The Atlantic: Do not violate Constitution to safeguard it Why Joe Biden (or any moderate) cannot be nominated GOP Rep. Tom Marino resigns from Congress MORE won in 2016.

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It’s a big shift from Emerson’s last poll from mid-October, which had Heller ahead by 7 points. More recent public polls have shown a much tighter race, which has given Republicans hope they can hold on to the seat and increase their Senate majority overall.

Forty-seven percent of respondents view President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump directed Cohen to lie to Congress about plans to build Trump Tower in Moscow during 2016 campaign: report DC train system losing 0k per day during government shutdown Senate Republicans eye rules change to speed Trump nominees MORE favorably, while 48 percent of respondents said they view him unfavorably. Heller has tied himself closely to Trump in his Senate campaign and has a similar but slightly lower favorability rating, 43 percent (compared to 46 percent of respondents who viewed him unfavorably). Rosen has a split favorability rating with 42 percent of respondents reporting a favorable view of her to 42 percent who said they held an unfavorable view.

The poll also found Democratic candidates leading in Nevada’s two competitive House races, where Democrats are playing defense.

In Nevada’s 3rd District, Democratic philanthropist Susie Lee holds a comfortable 9-point lead over Republican businessman and perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian. The two are competing for Rosen’s seat.

Meanwhile, in Nevada’s 4th District, former Rep. Steven HorsfordSteven Alexander HorsfordTen Dem lawmakers added to House Ways and Means Committee Nevada Democrat calls Trump’s focus on border wall ‘unfortunate and unnecessary’ The Hill's Morning Report — Pelosi to reclaim Speakership amid shutdown MORE (D) is ahead of former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R) by 4 points, just outside the margins, in the race to replace outgoing Rep. Ruben KihuenRuben Jesus KihuenNevada Dem sanctioned for sexual misconduct announces city council bid Dem gains put Sunbelt in play for 2020 Pence aide defends Meadows after ethics panel reprimand: He ‘had my back’ MORE (D-Nev.).

Nevada’s gubernatorial race is much tighter, with Democrat Steve Sisolak leading Republican Adam Laxalt by just 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent among respondents to the Emerson poll. Two percent are undecided.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 1 to 4 and surveyed 1,197 adults. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.