Braun knocks off Donnelly in Indiana

GOP businessman Mike Braun has defeated Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyK Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers Obama honors 'American statesman' Richard Lugar Former GOP senator Richard Lugar dies at 87 MORE (D) in Indiana, greatly increasing the odds that Republicans will keep or extend their majority in the Senate.

President TrumpDonald John TrumpNASA exec leading moon mission quits weeks after appointment The Hill's Morning Report — After contentious week, Trump heads for Japan Frustration boils over with Senate's 'legislative graveyard' MORE had made taking out Donnelly and several other Democratic senators his top priority, and had visited Indiana the day before the election.

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Besides Donnelly, Democratic Sens. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampOn The Money: Stocks sink on Trump tariff threat | GOP caught off guard by new trade turmoil | Federal deficit grew 38 percent this fiscal year | Banks avoid taking position in Trump, Dem subpoena fight Fight over Trump's new NAFTA hits key stretch Former senators launching effort to help Dems win rural votes MORE (D-N.D.) and Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillLobbying world Big Dem names show little interest in Senate Gillibrand, Grassley reintroduce campus sexual assault bill MORE (D-Mo.) are facing tough reelection contests, with most polls showing Heitkamp trailing her Republican challenger.

Trump was also in Missouri on Monday campaigning, and the president is expected to take credit for any Senate victories in the states he visited repeatedly.

Republicans have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, and are only worried about losing a handful of races. The victory in Indiana gives them a little more breathing room if races in Arizona and Nevada, in particular, go to Democrats.

Donnelly ran hard against liberals in his party in the final weeks of the campaign but Republicans bashed him as a loyal Democrat, who talked like a conservative in Indiana but voted with Senate Democratic Leader Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerNo agreement on budget caps in sight ahead of Memorial Day recess Ex-White House photographer roasts Trump: 'This is what a cover up looked like' under Obama Pelosi: Trump 'is engaged in a cover-up' MORE (N.Y.) in Washington. 

Trump at a rally for Braun in Fort Wayne, Ind., on Monday panned Donnelly as “an extreme liberal Democrat” who’s “gone rogue on the Democrats” by declaring support for Trump’s border wall. 

“All of the sudden he’s talking about what we’ve been talking about,” Trump said. “Here’s the problem. There’s one problem. We’ll have the election tomorrow and on Wednesday he’ll be totally against us. He’ll never vote for us.”

Donnelly aired a television ad in recent weeks warning that “socialists” want “to turn health care over to the government” and that the “radical left” wants to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

Democratic strategists on Monday pointed to strong turnout, especially in Marion County, as boding well for Donnelly. Early voting numbers across the state were about twice as high as they were in the 2014 and 2010 midterm elections. 

And public polls showed Donnelly with a slight lead in the weeks' run-up to Election Day. A Fox News poll from late October showed him ahead by 7 points and an NBC News/Marist poll from the same week showed him up 2 points. 

But a Senate Republican strategist on Monday cited internal polling showing Braun with a slight lead. 

A sign that Donnelly was in trouble came over the weekend, when former President Obama appeared with him at a get-out-the-vote rally in Indiana. 

Although Obama narrowly carried the state in 2008, he lost it to Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyOn The Money: Senate passes disaster aid bill after deal with Trump | Trump to offer B aid package for farmers | House votes to boost retirement savings | Study says new tariffs to double costs for consumers Senate passes disaster aid bill after deal with Trump Iraq War looms over Trump battle with Iran MORE by 10 points in 2012. The image of Donnelly and Obama standing together on stage undercut his claim to be a conservative Democrat willing to work with Trump. 

Donnelly’s vote against Supreme Court Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughMurkowski celebrates birthday with electric scooter ride Graham urges Trump not to abandon infrastructure talks with Democrats 2020 Dems break political taboos by endorsing litmus tests MORE became a major issue in the final weeks of the campaign and Trump focused on the Democrats’ handling of his confirmation during his rally in Fort Wayne. 

Braun slammed Donnelly for making “a grave mistake” that proved “he is more concerned with standing with his liberal Democratic leaders than standing for Hoosiers.”

Republicans painted Donnelly as profiting from outsourcing jobs for his family’s paper-supply company, dubbing him “Mexico Joe.” 

Outside groups poured more than $60 million into the race. 

Donnelly and Braun raised about the same amounts for their campaigns, $16.1 million and $17 million, respectively, according to Federal Election Commission records.  

Braun had to overcome a deficit after winning a nasty Republican primary against Reps. Todd RokitaTheodore (Todd) Edward RokitaFemale Dems see double standard in Klobuchar accusations House passes year-end tax package Indiana New Members 2019 MORE (R-Ind.) and Luke MesserAllen (Luke) Lucas MesserK Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers Yoder, Messer land on K Street House GOP to force members to give up leadership positions if running for higher office MORE (R-Ind.). 

Some Republican strategists in Washington criticized Braun for taking his foot off the gas after winning the primary, letting Donnelly build up a lead during the crucial start of the general election campaign. 

Republicans thought they should have beaten Donnelly in 2012 when he benefited from running against Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a tea party conservative who did not initially have the support of Senate Republican leaders in Washington. 

Mourdock stumbled when he defended restrictions on abortion and instances of rape arguing that pregnancy resulting from assault “is something that God intended.”

As a result, Donnelly was seen as something of an accidental candidate and a ripe target for defeat in 2018.