Braun knocks off Donnelly in Indiana

GOP businessman Mike Braun has defeated Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEPA's Wheeler faces grilling over rule rollbacks Some Senate Dems see Ocasio-Cortez as weak spokeswoman for party Senate approves funding bill, preventing partial government shutdown MORE (D) in Indiana, greatly increasing the odds that Republicans will keep or extend their majority in the Senate.

President TrumpDonald John TrumpSunday shows preview: Shutdown negotiations continue after White House immigration proposal Rove warns Senate GOP: Don't put only focus on base Ann Coulter blasts Trump shutdown compromise: ‘We voted for Trump and got Jeb!’ MORE had made taking out Donnelly and several other Democratic senators his top priority, and had visited Indiana the day before the election.

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Besides Donnelly, Democratic Sens. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampOn The Money: Shutdown Day 27 | Trump fires back at Pelosi by canceling her foreign travel | Dems blast 'petty' move | Trump also cancels delegation to Davos | House votes to disapprove of Trump lifting Russia sanction Gary Cohn criticizes the shutdown: 'Completely wrong' EPA's Wheeler faces grilling over rule rollbacks MORE (D-N.D.) and Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Trump AG pick Barr grilled at hearing | Judge rules against census citizenship question | McConnell blocks second House bill to reopen government Ex-Sen. McCaskill joins NBC, MSNBC Some Senate Dems see Ocasio-Cortez as weak spokeswoman for party MORE (D-Mo.) are facing tough reelection contests, with most polls showing Heitkamp trailing her Republican challenger.

Trump was also in Missouri on Monday campaigning, and the president is expected to take credit for any Senate victories in the states he visited repeatedly.

Republicans have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, and are only worried about losing a handful of races. The victory in Indiana gives them a little more breathing room if races in Arizona and Nevada, in particular, go to Democrats.

Donnelly ran hard against liberals in his party in the final weeks of the campaign but Republicans bashed him as a loyal Democrat, who talked like a conservative in Indiana but voted with Senate Democratic Leader Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerSunday shows preview: Shutdown negotiations continue after White House immigration proposal Trump blasts Pelosi for wanting to leave country during shutdown The Senate should host the State of the Union MORE (N.Y.) in Washington. 

Trump at a rally for Braun in Fort Wayne, Ind., on Monday panned Donnelly as “an extreme liberal Democrat” who’s “gone rogue on the Democrats” by declaring support for Trump’s border wall. 

“All of the sudden he’s talking about what we’ve been talking about,” Trump said. “Here’s the problem. There’s one problem. We’ll have the election tomorrow and on Wednesday he’ll be totally against us. He’ll never vote for us.”

Donnelly aired a television ad in recent weeks warning that “socialists” want “to turn health care over to the government” and that the “radical left” wants to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

Democratic strategists on Monday pointed to strong turnout, especially in Marion County, as boding well for Donnelly. Early voting numbers across the state were about twice as high as they were in the 2014 and 2010 midterm elections. 

And public polls showed Donnelly with a slight lead in the weeks' run-up to Election Day. A Fox News poll from late October showed him ahead by 7 points and an NBC News/Marist poll from the same week showed him up 2 points. 

But a Senate Republican strategist on Monday cited internal polling showing Braun with a slight lead. 

A sign that Donnelly was in trouble came over the weekend, when former President Obama appeared with him at a get-out-the-vote rally in Indiana. 

Although Obama narrowly carried the state in 2008, he lost it to Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyThe Senate should host the State of the Union Dem leaders avert censure vote against Steve King GOP reasserts NATO support after report on Trump’s wavering MORE by 10 points in 2012. The image of Donnelly and Obama standing together on stage undercut his claim to be a conservative Democrat willing to work with Trump. 

Donnelly’s vote against Supreme Court Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughThe Memo: Concern over shutdown grows in Trump World Merriam-Webster tweets out definition of 'suborn' after BuzzFeed report on Michael Cohen Abortion foes march into divided Washington MORE became a major issue in the final weeks of the campaign and Trump focused on the Democrats’ handling of his confirmation during his rally in Fort Wayne. 

Braun slammed Donnelly for making “a grave mistake” that proved “he is more concerned with standing with his liberal Democratic leaders than standing for Hoosiers.”

Republicans painted Donnelly as profiting from outsourcing jobs for his family’s paper-supply company, dubbing him “Mexico Joe.” 

Outside groups poured more than $60 million into the race. 

Donnelly and Braun raised about the same amounts for their campaigns, $16.1 million and $17 million, respectively, according to Federal Election Commission records.  

Braun had to overcome a deficit after winning a nasty Republican primary against Reps. Todd RokitaTheodore (Todd) Edward RokitaHouse passes year-end tax package Indiana New Members 2019 Braun knocks off Donnelly in Indiana MORE (R-Ind.) and Luke MesserAllen (Luke) Lucas MesserYoder, Messer land on K Street House GOP to force members to give up leadership positions if running for higher office Indiana New Members 2019 MORE (R-Ind.). 

Some Republican strategists in Washington criticized Braun for taking his foot off the gas after winning the primary, letting Donnelly build up a lead during the crucial start of the general election campaign. 

Republicans thought they should have beaten Donnelly in 2012 when he benefited from running against Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a tea party conservative who did not initially have the support of Senate Republican leaders in Washington. 

Mourdock stumbled when he defended restrictions on abortion and instances of rape arguing that pregnancy resulting from assault “is something that God intended.”

As a result, Donnelly was seen as something of an accidental candidate and a ripe target for defeat in 2018.