California primary threatens to change 2020 game for Dems

The changing Democratic primary calendar is prompting Democrats to ask whether early caucus and primary states will have the same cache in 2020.

Traditionally, candidates have hunkered down in Des Moines and Manchester, hoping that a victory in the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary would jumpstart their campaigns. 

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But in 2020, voters in California and Texas along with seven other states will head to the polls on March 3 — exactly one month after the Iowa caucuses and just a few days after the South Carolina primary.

The shift could lead some candidates, particularly those focused on winning over African-American or Hispanic voters, to put their focus on California instead of the smaller, whiter and more conservative states.

“The new calendar will turn everything on its head a bit,” said one Democratic strategist who is advising a potential 2020 candidate.

The fact that the crowd of contenders in 2020 might be dozens deep is another factor.

While attorney Michael Avenatti ended his flirtation with a White House bid on Tuesday, Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetOVERNIGHT ENERGY: House Democrats tee up vote on climate-focused energy bill next week | EPA reappoints controversial leader to air quality advisory committee | Coronavirus creates delay in Pentagon research for alternative to 'forever chemicals' Senate Democrats demand White House fire controversial head of public lands agency Next crisis, keep people working and give them raises MORE (D-Colo.) is yet another new face potentially in the mix. Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenCast of 'Parks and Rec' reunite for virtual town hall to address Wisconsin voters Biden says Trump should step down over coronavirus response Biden tells CNN town hall that he has benefited from white privilege MORE separately was in the headlines with comments from Monday night, when he said he was the “most qualified person in the country to be president.”

In a field that deep, it’s possible a candidate could survive middling finishes in the early contests with a strong night on March 3 — particularly if there are dramatically different results in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, who served as the executive director of the New York state Democratic Party, said that Iowa and New Hampshire will remain important. But he also said the new calendar means victories in those states may not guarantee a good showing later on.

“California has the ability to reset the discussion depending on how those delegates are allocated,” he said.

The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have been good predictors for the Democratic nominee for the White House.

The last time someone lost those two contests and still won the party’s presidential nomination was in 1992, when Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonD-Day for Trump: September 29 Trump job approval locked at 42 percent: Gallup If Trump doesn't know why he should be president again, how can voters? MORE did it. Former Iowa Sen. Tom HarkinThomas (Tom) Richard HarkinThe Memo: Trump attacks on Harris risk backfiring Ernst challenges Greenfield to six debates in Iowa Senate race Biden unveils disability rights plan: 'Your voices must be heard' MORE steamrolled the field in his home-state caucuses that year, but Clinton finished a solid second to Sen. Paul Tsongas (Mass.) in New Hampshire.

That result underlines that even in losing an early contest, it can be important to finish strongly and beat expectations.

The same could be true in 2020.

“I still think the early states will matter, but not with the same intensity,” said the Democratic strategist.

In fact, other strategists caution that candidates would be unwise to focus solely on California.

They point to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s strategy during the 2008 Republican race, when he intentionally skipped the early states and focused specifically on Florida, which came much later in the primary season.

It didn’t work.

David Huynh, who led Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHillicon Valley: FBI chief says Russia is trying to interfere in election to undermine Biden | Treasury Dept. sanctions Iranian government-backed hackers The Hill's Campaign Report: Arizona shifts towards Biden | Biden prepares for drive-in town hall | New Biden ad targets Latino voters FBI chief says Russia is trying to interfere in election to undermine Biden MORE’s delegate operation in 2016, said the late Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainThe electoral reality that the media ignores Kelly's lead widens to 10 points in Arizona Senate race: poll COVID response shows a way forward on private gun sale checks MORE’s (R-Ariz.) strategy in the 2008 cycle was much more fruitful. McCain focused on winning New Hampshire, barnstorming the state for days and believing that this would help lead to a victory 11 days later in South Carolina — which will be the fourth contest for Democrats in 2020, after Nevada’s caucuses.

“You can pick one or two states and focus on those, but you can’t ignore everything and go straight to a large state,” Huynh said. “You’re going to have to have a good showing in the first four states or at least some of them.” 

Another factor with California will be the cost of competition, where ad buys will start at seven figures.

Strategists say it would be infinitely more difficult to play in the expensive state without a running start in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

“The first four contests are still important in helping to shape the field and they’re going to play a pivotal role in shrinking the field,” Huynh said.

Another difference in the upcoming cycle: early voting.

While the 2020 calendar is still in flux, strategists are expecting states like California to begin the early voting process the morning of the Iowa caucus, further changing the primary dynamic.

That could lead candidates to fly from Iowa or New Hampshire to Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia or North Carolina, which will also have contests on March 3.

Candidates fighting for a strong finish in the Nevada caucuses may also be tempted to head to California early.

“The biggest difference is that you’ll have a lot more people using early voting, and that changes things,” Huynh said. “I think the candidates are going to have to spend more time outside of the first four states and in building a national infrastructure.”

The 2020 changes could help a candidate such as Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisScott Walker helping to prep Pence for debate against Harris: report California family frustrated that governor, Harris used fire-damaged property for 'photo opportunity' Moderna releases coronavirus vaccine trial plan as enrollment pushes toward 30,000 MORE (Calif.), whose home state will vote earlier in the process. Outgoing Rep. Beto O’Rourke (Texas) could also have an advantage.

But Iowa is likely to still matter, and a steady stream of would-be candidates, including Harris, Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerDHS opens probe into allegations at Georgia ICE facility Democratic lawmakers call for an investigation into allegations of medical neglect at Georgia ICE facility Black Voters Matter Fund deploying voter outreach caravans in 12 states to drive turnout MORE (N.J.) and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, have all made recent trips to the Hawkeye State.

“The fact that all these candidates are coming to Iowa already shows me it’s going to be significant,” said Steffan Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University.

“Whoever wins the Iowa caucuses will make headlines. They’re going to get a lot of free publicity and momentum,” he added. “The only way that happens in California is if Bernie SandersBernie SandersMcConnell accuses Democrats of sowing division by 'downplaying progress' on election security The Hill's Campaign Report: Arizona shifts towards Biden | Biden prepares for drive-in town hall | New Biden ad targets Latino voters Why Democrats must confront extreme left wing incitement to violence MORE or one of these candidates gets on a surf board.”