Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenOvernight Energy & Environment — Presented by American Clean Power — Methane fee faces negotiations White House rejects latest Trump claim of executive privilege The No Surprises Act: a bill long overdue MORE is leading President TrumpDonald TrumpYoungkin ad features mother who pushed to have 'Beloved' banned from son's curriculum White House rejects latest Trump claim of executive privilege Democrats say GOP lawmakers implicated in Jan. 6 should be expelled MORE by 9 points in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, an early signal that the president may face an uphill battle in the country’s largest and most volatile battleground state.
In a hypothetical match-up, Biden leads Trump 50 percent to 41 percent in Florida, according to the Quinnipiac poll.
The poll results come hours before Trump officially launches his reelection campaign with a rally in Orlando. The real estate mogul, who owns multiple properties in Florida and counts it as a second home, barely won the state in 2016 with roughly 1 percent of the vote.
But the former vice president isn’t the only one leading Trump in the state.
Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersDemocrats face critical 72 hours Overnight Health Care — Presented by Altria — Manchin nixes Medicare expansion Manchin shutting down Sanders on Medicare expansion MORE (I-Vt.) has a 6-point lead over the president, with 48 percent support in the state. Meanwhile, the poll shows Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenDemocrats face critical 72 hours The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden, Democrats inch closer to legislative deal This week: Democrats aim to unlock Biden economic, infrastructure package MORE (D-Mass.) beating Trump by a 4-point margin, with 47 percent.
Both Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisObama looks to give new momentum to McAuliffe Kamala Harris engages with heckler during New York speech Biden's safe-space CNN town hall attracts small audience, as poll numbers plummet MORE (D-Calif.) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) also lead Trump in hypothetical match-ups, each carrying 45 percent support to Trump’s 44 percent. Likewise, 44 percent of Florida voters surveyed chose South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden, Democrats inch closer to legislative deal Republican spin on Biden is off the mark Unanswered questions remain for Buttigieg, Biden on supply chain catastrophe MORE over Trump, who took 43 percent in a head-to-head match-up.
Florida is among the battleground states that Trump plans to target most aggressively in his bid for a second term in the White House. Not only has Trump selected Florida as the site of his 2020 campaign kickoff, but his advisers are also planning to use the state to test a Latino voter outreach initiative.
Fueling the president’s hopes in Florida are the victories of two key allies, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Gov. Ron DeSantisRon DeSantisThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden, Democrats inch closer to legislative deal Democrats face growing hurdles in bid to oust DeSantis DeSantis eyes ,000 bonus for unvaccinated police to relocate to Florida MORE (R), in the state in last year’s midterm elections.
Trump campaigned relentlessly for both men in 2018 and their ultra-narrow wins over two prominent Democrats was seen by Republicans as potentially foreshadowing bright prospects for the president’s reelection in 2020.
But the Quinnipiac poll released on Tuesday suggests that Florida may not be as far in Trump’s corner as some of his allies thought.
The results also tack with those of other public polls showing not just Biden, but several Democratic contenders edging out Trump in hypothetical match-ups. Another Quinnipiac poll of voters nationally released last week showed Biden with a 13-point lead over Trump.
To be sure, statewide elections in Florida are often decided by ultra-narrow margins, and Florida political operatives on both sides of the aisle are quick to point out that a blow-out win for any candidate in the state is unlikely. The last two presidential elections in the state, for instance, were decided by roughly 1 point each.
For now, Biden appears to be the favorite to win the Democratic nomination in Florida. Tuesday’s Quinnipiac poll showed the former vice president with 41 percent support among registered Democratic voters in the state — a 27-point lead over the second-place finisher, Sanders, who came in with 14 percent support.
Warren isn’t running far behind Sanders, according to the survey, taking 12 percent among Florida Democrats. Buttigieg took 8 percent, while Harris came in at 6 percent. Three other candidates, O’Rourke, Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Klobuchar'Facebook Papers' turn up heat on embattled social media platform Omar, Klobuchar lead charge seeking Congressional Gold Medal for Prince Klobuchar: 'Facebook knew' it was hurting communities MORE (D-Minn.) and Sen. Cory BookerCory BookerSenate Democrats call for diversity among new Federal Reserve Bank presidents Progressives push back on decision to shrink Biden's paid family leave program Emanuel to take hot seat in Senate confirmation hearing MORE (D-N.J.), tied for sixth place in the poll, with 1 percent support each.
While Trump is poised to make an aggressive campaign push in Florida, Democrats in the state are also bullish about their chances.
Andrew Gillum, the 2018 Democratic candidate for Florida governor, is spearheading an initiative to register 1 million new voters ahead of the 2020 presidential election. The Florida Democratic Party is also planning to spend $2 million ahead of the 2020 election to register an additional 200,000 voters.
At the same time, two Democratic super PACs, American 21st Century and Priorities USA, are preparing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in four key battleground states, including Florida.
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,279 Florida voters from June 12-17. The survey has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.