Biden leads Trump by 9 points in Florida: poll

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenPence: It's not a "foregone conclusion" that lawmakers impeach Trump Warren, Buttigieg fight echoes 2004 campaign, serves as warning for 2020 race Trump: Giuliani to deliver report on Ukraine trip to Congress, Barr MORE is leading President TrumpDonald John TrumpPence: It's not a "foregone conclusion" that lawmakers impeach Trump FBI identifies Pensacola shooter as Saudi Royal Saudi Air Force second lieutenant Trump calls Warren 'Pocahontas,' knocks wealth tax MORE by 9 points in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, an early signal that the president may face an uphill battle in the country’s largest and most volatile battleground state.

In a hypothetical match-up, Biden leads Trump 50 percent to 41 percent in Florida, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

The poll results come hours before Trump officially launches his reelection campaign with a rally in Orlando. The real estate mogul, who owns multiple properties in Florida and counts it as a second home, barely won the state in 2016 with roughly 1 percent of the vote.

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But the former vice president isn’t the only one leading Trump in the state.

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersWarren, Buttigieg fight echoes 2004 campaign, serves as warning for 2020 race Democrats battle for Hollywood's cash Sanders, Omar to hit campaign trail in New Hampshire MORE (I-Vt.) has a 6-point lead over the president, with 48 percent support in the state. Meanwhile, the poll shows Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenTrump calls Warren 'Pocahontas,' knocks wealth tax Warren, Buttigieg fight echoes 2004 campaign, serves as warning for 2020 race Democrats battle for Hollywood's cash MORE (D-Mass.) beating Trump by a 4-point margin, with 47 percent.

Both Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisBooker campaign rakes in million after Harris exits 2020 race Democrats battle for Hollywood's cash Yang expands campaign with senior hires for digital operations MORE (D-Calif.) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) also lead Trump in hypothetical match-ups, each carrying 45 percent support to Trump’s 44 percent. Likewise, 44 percent of Florida voters surveyed chose South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegWarren, Buttigieg fight echoes 2004 campaign, serves as warning for 2020 race Chicago Mayor Lightfoot to Buttigieg: 'Break that NDA' to have 'moral authority' against Trump Sanders, Omar to hit campaign trail in New Hampshire MORE over Trump, who took 43 percent in a head-to-head match-up.

Florida is among the battleground states that Trump plans to target most aggressively in his bid for a second term in the White House. Not only has Trump selected Florida as the site of his 2020 campaign kickoff, but his advisers are also planning to use the state to test a Latino voter outreach initiative.

Fueling the president’s hopes in Florida are the victories of two key allies, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Gov. Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantis FBI identifies Pensacola shooter as Saudi Royal Saudi Air Force second lieutenant Overnight Defense: Suspect in Pensacola shooting identified as Saudi aviation student | Trump speaks with Saudi king after shooting | Esper denies considering 14K deployment to Mideast Suspect in deadly Pensacola air station shooting a Saudi national MORE (R), in the state in last year’s midterm elections.

Trump campaigned relentlessly for both men in 2018 and their ultra-narrow wins over two prominent Democrats was seen by Republicans as potentially foreshadowing bright prospects for the president’s reelection in 2020.

But the Quinnipiac poll released on Tuesday suggests that Florida may not be as far in Trump’s corner as some of his allies thought.

The results also tack with those of other public polls showing not just Biden, but several Democratic contenders edging out Trump in hypothetical match-ups. Another Quinnipiac poll of voters nationally released last week showed Biden with a 13-point lead over Trump.

To be sure, statewide elections in Florida are often decided by ultra-narrow margins, and Florida political operatives on both sides of the aisle are quick to point out that a blow-out win for any candidate in the state is unlikely. The last two presidential elections in the state, for instance, were decided by roughly 1 point each.

For now, Biden appears to be the favorite to win the Democratic nomination in Florida. Tuesday’s Quinnipiac poll showed the former vice president with 41 percent support among registered Democratic voters in the state — a 27-point lead over the second-place finisher, Sanders, who came in with 14 percent support.

Warren isn’t running far behind Sanders, according to the survey, taking 12 percent among Florida Democrats. Buttigieg took 8 percent, while Harris came in at 6 percent. Three other candidates, O’Rourke, Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharBiden: All-white debate not representative of party, but 'you can't dictate' nominee Delaney to DNC: Open second debate stage for candidates who qualified for past events There's a lot to like about the Senate privacy bill, if it's not watered down MORE (D-Minn.) and Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerBooker campaign rakes in million after Harris exits 2020 race Sunday talk shows: Lawmakers gear up ahead of Monday's House Judiciary hearing Democrats battle for Hollywood's cash MORE (D-N.J.), tied for sixth place in the poll, with 1 percent support each.

While Trump is poised to make an aggressive campaign push in Florida, Democrats in the state are also bullish about their chances.

Andrew Gillum, the 2018 Democratic candidate for Florida governor, is spearheading an initiative to register 1 million new voters ahead of the 2020 presidential election. The Florida Democratic Party is also planning to spend $2 million ahead of the 2020 election to register an additional 200,000 voters.

At the same time, two Democratic super PACs, American 21st Century and Priorities USA, are preparing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in four key battleground states, including Florida.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,279 Florida voters from June 12-17. The survey has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.