Where 2020 Democrats stand in betting markets ahead of first debate

Where 2020 Democrats stand in betting markets ahead of first debate
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Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenJill Biden campaigns for McAuliffe in Virginia Fill the Eastern District of Virginia  Biden: Those who defy Jan. 6 subpoenas should be prosecuted MORE is not only leading the field of Democratic presidential contenders in polls, he's also leading in another vital tool to evaluate races: prediction and betting markets.

A look at three major prediction and betting markets shows Biden with a substantial lead to win the Democratic nomination, followed by Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersSanders, Manchin escalate fight over .5T spending bill Sanders blames media for Americans not knowing details of Biden spending plan Briahna Joy Gray: Proposals favored by Black voters 'first at the chopping block' in spending talks MORE (I-Vt.), Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenMisguided recusal rules lock valuable leaders out of the Pentagon Biden's soft touch with Manchin, Sinema frustrates Democrats Hillicon Valley — Presented by LookingGlass — Congress makes technology policy moves MORE (Mass.) and Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisDemocrats' reconciliation bill breaks Biden's middle class tax pledge We have a presidential leadership crisis — and it's only going to get worse Blinken pressed to fill empty post overseeing 'Havana syndrome' MORE (Calif.), as well as South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegButtigieg hits back after parental leave criticism: 'Really strange' The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by The Conference of Presidents of Major Italian American Organizations - US opens to vaccinated visitors as FDA panel discusses boosters Tucker Carlson mocks Buttigieg over paternity leave MORE.


That order roughly reflects the standing of the Democratic contenders in polls — except for one surprise: tech entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangYang says he has left Democratic Party Yang says presidential bid 'messed with my head' Yang in new book: Trump might have won in 2020 'if not for the coronavirus' MORE, who places highly in each of the betting markets, far above where he stands in traditional surveys.

The Hill will take a look at these three markets before and after each of the Democratic debates, to show how perceptions have shifted among people willing to bet money on candidates.  

Here's where candidates currently rank, just hours before the first debate is set to kick off on Wednesday evening. A second debate will follow on Thursday:


The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants bet on whether the candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each candidate. 

26 cents: Biden

22 cents: Warren 

15 cents: Sanders 

14 cents: Yang

13 cents: Buttigieg 

12 cents: Harris

5 cents: Sen. Cory BookerCory BookerDefense & National Security — Military starts giving guidance on COVID-19 vaccine refusals Senators preview bill to stop tech giants from prioritizing their own products Blinken pressed to fill empty post overseeing 'Havana syndrome' MORE (N.J.), former Rep. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeAbbott bans vaccine mandates from any 'entity in Texas' Abbott disapproval rating up 8 points to 59 percent in San Antonio area: poll Beto O'Rourke weighs in on Matthew McConaughey's potential Texas bid MORE (Texas)

4 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharOn The Money — Progressives play hard ball on Biden budget plan Schumer, McConnell headed for another collision over voting rights Hillicon Valley — Presented by LookingGlass — Congress makes technology policy moves MORE (Minn.), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardThe perfect Democratic running mate for DeSantis? Progressives breathe sigh of relief after Afghan withdrawal Hillicon Valley: US has made progress on cyber but more needed, report says | Democrat urges changes for 'problematic' crypto language in infrastructure bill | Facebook may be forced to unwind Giphy acquisition MORE (Hawaii)

2 cents: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandOvernight Energy & Environment — Biden makes return to pre-Trump national monument boundaries official Biden signs bill to help victims of 'Havana syndrome' Lawmakers using leadership PACs as 'slush funds' to live lavish lifestyles: report MORE (N.Y.)

1 cent: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetBuilding back better by investing in workers and communities Biden signs bill to help victims of 'Havana syndrome' Colorado remap plan creates new competitive district MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanTim Ryan's campaign raises .5 million in third quarter Internal poll shows Mandel leading crowded Ohio Senate GOP primary Tim Ryan's Senate campaign staff unionizes MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellGOP ekes out win in return of Congressional Baseball Game Greene heckles Democrats and they fire back on Capitol steps Overnight Defense & National Security — Milley becomes lightning rod MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeWashington state ferry system scaling back services amid staffing shortages Newsom signs bill requiring California public schools to provide menstrual products Washington state agencies sending separation notices to employees over vaccine mandate MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve Bullock65 former governors, mayors back bipartisan infrastructure deal Arkansas, New Jersey governors to head National Governors Association Biden 'allies' painting him into a corner MORE, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperOhio GOP congressman tests positive for COVID-19 Colorado remap plan creates new competitive district State Department spokesperson tests positive for COVID-19 MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn DelaneyDirect air capture is a crucial bipartisan climate policy Lobbying world Coronavirus Report: The Hill's Steve Clemons interviews Rep. Rodney Davis MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson: Steven Donziger sentencing is meant to have a 'chilling effect' on environmentalists Marianne Williamson calls federal judge's handling of Steven Donziger case 'unconstitutional' Marianne Williamson calls on Biden to drop efforts to extradite Assange MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de BlasioEMILY's List announces early endorsement of Hochul More than 200 women, transgender inmates to be transferred from Rikers Island Achieving equity through mediocrity: Why elimination of gifted programs should worry us all MORE


Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

+200: Biden

+400: Buttigieg

+450: Sanders

+550: Harris

+700: Warren

+1,200: Yang

+1,800: O’Rourke

+3,000: Gabbard

+3,300: Booker

+4,000: Klobuchar

+8,000: Castro, Gillibrand

* A previous version of this story used Bovada's chances of winning the presidency, but it has been updated to reflect the odds of winning the nomination.


BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

+175: Biden

+350: Warren

+500: Buttigieg

+800: Sanders, Harris

+1,000: Yang

+2,500: O'Rourke

+3,300: Booker

+5,000: Gillibrand, Castro, Klobuchar, Gabbard

+10,000: Hickenlooper, Delaney, Ryan, de Blasio, Rep. Seth MoultonSeth MoultonHow lawmakers aided the Afghan evacuation GOP lawmaker says he did not threaten US Embassy staff in Tajikistan House panel approves B boost for defense budget MORE (Mass.), Bullock, Inslee, Swalwell, Bennet

-- Updated at 3:15 p.m.