Where 2020 Democrats stand in betting markets ahead of first debate

Where 2020 Democrats stand in betting markets ahead of first debate
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Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenImpeachment week: Trump probe hits crucial point Trump DACA fight hits Supreme Court Juan Williams: Honesty, homophobia and Mayor Pete MORE is not only leading the field of Democratic presidential contenders in polls, he's also leading in another vital tool to evaluate races: prediction and betting markets.

A look at three major prediction and betting markets shows Biden with a substantial lead to win the Democratic nomination, followed by Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersJuan Williams: Honesty, homophobia and Mayor Pete Democrats on edge as Iowa points to chaotic race Democrats debate how to defeat Trump: fight or heal MORE (I-Vt.), Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenJuan Williams: Honesty, homophobia and Mayor Pete Trump DACA fight hits Supreme Court Democrats on edge as Iowa points to chaotic race MORE (Mass.) and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisJuan Williams: Honesty, homophobia and Mayor Pete Democrats debate how to defeat Trump: fight or heal Women who inspired 'Hidden Figures' film will be honored with congressional gold medals MORE (Calif.), as well as South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegJuan Williams: Honesty, homophobia and Mayor Pete Democrats on edge as Iowa points to chaotic race Democrats debate how to defeat Trump: fight or heal MORE.

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That order roughly reflects the standing of the Democratic contenders in polls — except for one surprise: tech entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangIntercollegiate athletics just got a two-minute warning AI and automation will disrupt our world — but only Andrew Yang is warning about it The Hill's Campaign Report: Bloomberg looks to upend Democratic race MORE, who places highly in each of the betting markets, far above where he stands in traditional surveys.

The Hill will take a look at these three markets before and after each of the Democratic debates, to show how perceptions have shifted among people willing to bet money on candidates.  

Here's where candidates currently rank, just hours before the first debate is set to kick off on Wednesday evening. A second debate will follow on Thursday:

PREDICTIT

The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants bet on whether the candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each candidate. 

26 cents: Biden

22 cents: Warren 

15 cents: Sanders 

14 cents: Yang

13 cents: Buttigieg 

12 cents: Harris

5 cents: Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerThe Hill's Campaign Report: Bloomberg looks to upend Democratic race Poll: Biden support hits record low of 26 percent The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump demands Bidens testify MORE (N.J.), former Rep. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeO'Rourke says he 'absolutely' plans to stay in politics Krystal Ball: Buttigieg is 'the boomer candidate' Language is a weapon in political warfare — if the media play along MORE (Texas)

4 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharDemocrats debate how to defeat Trump: fight or heal Republicans, Democrats brace for first public testimony in impeachment inquiry Klobuchar: A woman with Buttigieg's experience would not be on presidential debate stage MORE (Minn.), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardKrystal Ball praises former McConnell aide's historic win in Kentucky The Hill's Campaign Report: Bloomberg looks to upend Democratic race The Hill's Morning Report — Bloomberg news shakes up 2020 race MORE (Hawaii)

2 cents: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandSenate panel clears controversial Trump court pick Advocates step up efforts for horse racing reform bill after more deaths Harris proposes keeping schools open for 10 hours a day MORE (N.Y.)

1 cent: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetDemocrats debate how to defeat Trump: fight or heal Overnight Energy: EPA watchdog slams agency chief after deputy fails to cooperate in probe | Justices wrestle with reach of Clean Water Act | Bipartisan Senate climate caucus grows Bipartisan Senate climate caucus grows by six members MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanStrategists say Warren 'Medicare for All' plan could appeal to centrists Trump mocks O'Rourke after Democrat drops out of race The Memo: What the leading 2020 Dems need to do MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellImpeachment week: Trump probe hits crucial point Republicans, Democrats brace for first public testimony in impeachment inquiry Sunday shows — New impeachment phase dominates MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeO'Rourke ends presidential bid Sunrise Movement organizer: Sanders, Warren boast strongest climate change plans Overnight Energy: Farmers say EPA reneged on ethanol deal | EPA scrubs senators' quotes from controversial ethanol announcement | Perry unsure if he'll comply with subpoena | John Kerry criticizes lack of climate talk at debate MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockObama's former chief economist advising Buttigieg The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump says Dems shouldn't hold public hearings The Hill's Campaign Report: Bloomberg looks to upend Democratic race MORE, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperKrystal Ball dismisses Rahm Emanuel's 'Medicare for All' criticism as a 'corporatist mantra' Trump says remark about Colorado border wall was made 'kiddingly' Colorado governor mocks Trump for saying he's building wall there MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn Kevin DelaneyBloomberg run should push Warren to the center — but won't The Hill's 12:30 Report: Impeachment fight enters new stage Biden hits Warren over 'Medicare for All' plan MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonYang seeks donations for 2020 rival Marianne Williamson: 'She has much more to say' Pushing results, not polarization, in New Hampshire Williamson focuses on reparations in first ad of presidential campaign MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de BlasioTrump hits 'political hacks in New York' after settling Trump Foundation lawsuit NYPD commissioner announces retirement De Blasio supports former Deadspin employees: 'This city is a union town' MORE

BOVADA*

Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

+200: Biden

+400: Buttigieg

+450: Sanders

+550: Harris

+700: Warren

+1,200: Yang

+1,800: O’Rourke

+3,000: Gabbard

+3,300: Booker

+4,000: Klobuchar

+8,000: Castro, Gillibrand

* A previous version of this story used Bovada's chances of winning the presidency, but it has been updated to reflect the odds of winning the nomination.

BETONLINE

BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

+175: Biden

+350: Warren

+500: Buttigieg

+800: Sanders, Harris

+1,000: Yang

+2,500: O'Rourke

+3,300: Booker

+5,000: Gillibrand, Castro, Klobuchar, Gabbard

+10,000: Hickenlooper, Delaney, Ryan, de Blasio, Rep. Seth MoultonSeth MoultonIt's time for Congress to establish a national mental health crisis number Bill introduced to give special immigrant visas to Kurds who helped US in Syria Tim Ryan drops out of 2020 presidential race MORE (Mass.), Bullock, Inslee, Swalwell, Bennet

-- Updated at 3:15 p.m.