Where 2020 Democrats stand in betting markets ahead of first debate

Where 2020 Democrats stand in betting markets ahead of first debate
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Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHouse unravels with rise of 'Les Enfants Terrible' Sanders to call on 2020 Democrats to reject money from drug, health insurance industries Harris tops Biden in California 2020 poll MORE is not only leading the field of Democratic presidential contenders in polls, he's also leading in another vital tool to evaluate races: prediction and betting markets.

A look at three major prediction and betting markets shows Biden with a substantial lead to win the Democratic nomination, followed by Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersSanders to call on 2020 Democrats to reject money from drug, health insurance industries The hidden connection between immigration and health care: Our long-term care crisis Harris tops Biden in California 2020 poll MORE (I-Vt.), Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenHarris tops Biden in California 2020 poll The Hill's Morning Report - A raucous debate on race ends with Trump admonishment Democrats fret over Trump cash machine MORE (Mass.) and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisHarris tops Biden in California 2020 poll The Hill's Morning Report - A raucous debate on race ends with Trump admonishment Democrats fret over Trump cash machine MORE (Calif.), as well as South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegHarris tops Biden in California 2020 poll The Hill's Morning Report - A raucous debate on race ends with Trump admonishment The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet MORE.

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That order roughly reflects the standing of the Democratic contenders in polls — except for one surprise: tech entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangHarris tops Biden in California 2020 poll Jack Dorsey maxes out donations to Tulsi Gabbard presidential bid The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by JUUL Labs - House to vote to condemn Trump tweet MORE, who places highly in each of the betting markets, far above where he stands in traditional surveys.

The Hill will take a look at these three markets before and after each of the Democratic debates, to show how perceptions have shifted among people willing to bet money on candidates.  

Here's where candidates currently rank, just hours before the first debate is set to kick off on Wednesday evening. A second debate will follow on Thursday:

PREDICTIT

The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants bet on whether the candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each candidate. 

26 cents: Biden

22 cents: Warren 

15 cents: Sanders 

14 cents: Yang

13 cents: Buttigieg 

12 cents: Harris

5 cents: Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerThe Hill's Morning Report - A raucous debate on race ends with Trump admonishment Lawmakers pay tribute to late Justice Stevens Schumer throws support behind bill to study reparations MORE (N.J.), former Rep. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet Poll: Biden, Sanders and Warren lead 2020 Democrats in New Hampshire Poll: Biden leads 2020 Democrats by 13 points, followed by Sanders, Warren and Harris MORE (Texas)

4 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharKlobuchar fundraises for McConnell challenger: 'Two Amys are better than one' The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by JUUL Labs - House to vote to condemn Trump tweet MORE (Minn.), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardDemocrats ask Labor Department to investigate Amazon warehouses Jack Dorsey maxes out donations to Tulsi Gabbard presidential bid Sanders praises Gen Z for being 'profoundly anti-racist, anti-sexist, anti-homophobic' MORE (Hawaii)

2 cents: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten Elizabeth GillibrandThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet 'Game of Thrones' scores record-breaking 32 Emmy nominations The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by JUUL Labs - House to vote to condemn Trump tweet MORE (N.Y.)

1 cent: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by JUUL Labs - House to vote to condemn Trump tweet Fundraising numbers highlight growing divide in 2020 race MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) John Ryan2020 Democrats call Trump's tweets about female Democrats racist 3 reasons billionaire activist Tom Steyer is running for president ProPublica to fund reporter to cover Youngstown, Ohio, after newspaper folds MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellMatt Gaetz hints prosecutor won't press charges against threatening caller for political reasons Fundraising numbers highlight growing divide in 2020 race The Hill's 12:30 Report: Pelosi looks to squash fight with progressives MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeNew Trump rules prompt Planned Parenthood to forgo federal funds The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet Oregon to require schools to teach about Holocaust MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet Fundraising numbers highlight growing divide in 2020 race Inslee raises over million in second quarter MORE, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn Wright HickenlooperThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump digs in ahead of House vote to condemn tweet Fundraising numbers highlight growing divide in 2020 race 2020 Democrats call Trump's tweets about female Democrats racist MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn Kevin DelaneyBiden proposes tax increases for wealthy as part of health care plan The Young Turks' Cenk Uygur: Here's how to choose a president 2020 Democrats push tax hike on wealthy investors MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonThe Young Turks' Cenk Uygur: Here's how to choose a president Gravel campaign to air Biden attack ad on MSNBC The Hill's 12:30 Report: Pelosi looks to squash fight with progressives MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de Blasio2020 Democrats condemn decision not to charge officer in Eric Garner's death 2020 Democrats call Trump's tweets about female Democrats racist #RacistPresident trends amid criticism over Trump tweets MORE

BOVADA*

Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

+200: Biden

+400: Buttigieg

+450: Sanders

+550: Harris

+700: Warren

+1,200: Yang

+1,800: O’Rourke

+3,000: Gabbard

+3,300: Booker

+4,000: Klobuchar

+8,000: Castro, Gillibrand

* A previous version of this story used Bovada's chances of winning the presidency, but it has been updated to reflect the odds of winning the nomination.

BETONLINE

BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

+175: Biden

+350: Warren

+500: Buttigieg

+800: Sanders, Harris

+1,000: Yang

+2,500: O'Rourke

+3,300: Booker

+5,000: Gillibrand, Castro, Klobuchar, Gabbard

+10,000: Hickenlooper, Delaney, Ryan, de Blasio, Rep. Seth MoultonSeth Wilbur Moulton2020 Democrats call Trump's tweets about female Democrats racist Biden proposes tax increases for wealthy as part of health care plan 2020 Democrats push tax hike on wealthy investors MORE (Mass.), Bullock, Inslee, Swalwell, Bennet

-- Updated at 3:15 p.m.