Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisHarris says she hasn't 'made a plan one way or another' on meeting Supreme Court nominee Compromise, yes — but how? A pre-debate suggestion Biden must clarify his stance on energy for swing voters MORE (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's tax bombshell | More election drama in Pennsylvania | Trump makes up ground in new polls New Biden campaign ad jabs at Trump's reported 0 income tax payments Democrats blast Trump after report reveals he avoided income taxes for 10 years: 'Disgusting' MORE (D-Mass.) were the two biggest winners, while former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTop House Republican calls for probe of source of NYT Trump tax documents Judge's ruling creates fresh hurdle for Trump's TikTok ban Harris says she hasn't 'made a plan one way or another' on meeting Supreme Court nominee MORE lost ground on prediction and betting markets after the first two Democratic debates this week.

As of Friday morning Harris, who impressed with a direct attack on Biden, was tied with Warren on top of PredictIt, a market where participants bet on whether a candidate will, or will not, become the party's nominee.

On Bovada and BetOnline, which take a more traditional approach to reflect odds, Harris and Warren propelled themselves into the same tier as Biden, with Harris even becoming the favorite to win the nomination in least one market.


Another big climber was former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, who capitalized on his detailed immigration stances.

He was a distant outsider on most markets, but has now placed himself near Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerBooker says he will ask Amy Coney Barrett if she will recuse herself from presidential election-related cases Sunday shows preview: Lawmakers prepare for SCOTUS confirmation hearings before election The movement to reform animal agriculture has reached a tipping point MORE (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeJimmy Carter says his son smoked pot with Willie Nelson on White House roof O'Rourke endorses Kennedy for Senate: 'A champion for the values we're most proud of' 2020 Democrats do convention Zoom call MORE (D-Texas) who have been polling a few points above him in state and local polls.

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersPresident Trump faces Herculean task in first debate The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by JobsOhio - Trump's tax return bombshell New Biden campaign ad jabs at Trump's reported 0 income tax payments MORE (I-Vt.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegCindy McCain joins board of Biden's presidential transition team Billionaire who donated to Trump in 2016 donates to Biden The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - GOP closes ranks to fill SCOTUS vacancy by November MORE, two of the other top tier candidates, remained generally stable.

But Biden lost ground in two of the three betting markets being tracked by The Hill, after the former vice president was widely seen as having faltered on Thursday night's debate. 

The Hill tracked three of the biggest markets on Wednesday, just hours before the start of the first of the two Democratic primary debates this week.

Here is how the 2020 candidates have shifted now that the debates have concluded.


The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants purchase shares of whether a candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each share.

21 cents: Warren (-1), Harris (+9)

20 cents: Biden (-6)

15 cents: Buttigieg (+2)

14 cents: Sanders (-1)

9 cents: Entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangThe shape of guaranteed income Biden's latest small business outreach is just ... awful Doctor who allegedly assaulted Evelyn Yang arrested on federal charges MORE (-5)

5 cents: Booker (0)

4 cents: Castro (+3), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardRepublicans call on DOJ to investigate Netflix over 'Cuties' film Hispanic Caucus campaign arm endorses slate of non-Hispanic candidates Gabbard says she 'was not invited to participate in any way' in Democratic convention MORE (D-Hawaii) (0)

2 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Klobuchar3 reasons why Biden is misreading the politics of court packing Social media platforms put muscle into National Voter Registration Day Battle lines drawn on precedent in Supreme Court fight MORE (D-Minn.) (-2), O'Rourke (-3)

1 cent: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandSunday shows preview: Lawmakers prepare for SCOTUS confirmation hearings before election Sunday shows preview: Justice Ginsburg dies, sparking partisan battle over vacancy before election Suburban moms are going to decide the 2020 election MORE (N.Y.) (-1), no change: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetOVERNIGHT ENERGY: House Democrats tee up vote on climate-focused energy bill next week | EPA reappoints controversial leader to air quality advisory committee | Coronavirus creates delay in Pentagon research for alternative to 'forever chemicals' Senate Democrats demand White House fire controversial head of public lands agency Next crisis, keep people working and give them raises MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanNow's the time to make 'Social Emotional Learning' a national priority Mourners gather outside Supreme Court after passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg Lincoln Project hits Trump for criticizing Goodyear, 'an American company' MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellHouse to vote on resolution affirming peaceful transition of power Swalwell calls for creation of presidential crimes commission to investigate Trump when he leaves office 'This already exists': Democrats seize on potential Trump executive order on preexisting conditions MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeBarr asked prosecutors to explore charging Seattle mayor over protest zone: report Bottom line Oregon senator says Trump's blame on 'forest management' for wildfires is 'just a big and devastating lie' MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Court removes Pendley from role as public lands chief | Pendley court ruling could unravel Trump's public lands decisions | 1 in 4 adults cite climate change in decision not to have children Pendley court ruling could unravel Trump's public lands decisions Court removes Pendley from role as public lands chief MORE, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump previews SCOTUS nominee as 'totally brilliant' Cook Political Report shifts Colorado Senate race toward Democrat Willie Nelson playing at virtual fundraiser for Hickenlooper MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn DelaneyCoronavirus Report: The Hill's Steve Clemons interviews Rep. Rodney Davis Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer says Trump right on China but wrong on WHO; CDC issues new guidance for large gatherings The Hill's Coronavirus Report: Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas says country needs to rethink what 'policing' means; US cases surpass 2 million with no end to pandemic in sight MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson discusses speaking at People's Party Convention Fewer people watched opening night of Democratic convention compared to 2016 Marianne Williamson: Democratic convention 'like binge watching a Marriott commercial' MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de BlasioNYC wedding with nearly 300 guests 'shut down' by police NYC principals call on state to take control of city's schools, vote 'no confidence' in de Blasio OVERNIGHT ENERGY: California seeks to sell only electric cars by 2035 | EPA threatens to close New York City office after Trump threats to 'anarchist' cities | House energy package sparks criticism from left and right MORE


Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+200: Biden (0)

+450: Harris (-100), Warren (-250)

+500: Buttigieg (+100)

+550: Sanders (+100)

+1,300: Yang (+100)

+1,800: O'Rourke (0)

+2,500: Gabbard (-500)

+4,000: Klobuchar (0), Booker (+700)

+8,000: Gillibrand (0)

+10,000: Castro (+2,000), de Blasio (N/A), Swalwell (N/A), Inslee (N/A), Delaney (N/A), Hickenlooper (N/A), Williamson (N/A), Bennet (N/A), Ryan (N/A)


BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+250: Harris (-550)

+325: Biden (+150)

+450: Warren (+100)

+800: Sanders (0), Buttigieg (+300)

+1,200: Yang (+200)

+2,500: Booker (-800), Castro (-2,500)

+4,000: O'Rourke (+1,500)

+5,000: Gillibrand (0), Klobuchar (0), Gabbard (0)

+10,000: Hickenlooper (0), Delaney (0), Ryan (0), de Blasio (0), Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) (0), Bullock (0), Inslee (0), Swalwell (0), Bennet (0)

+20,000: Williamson (N/A)