Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisCIA chief team member reported Havana syndrome symptoms during trip to India: report Harris booked for first in-studio talk show appearance as VP on 'The View' Republicans caught in California's recall trap MORE (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenDemocrats confront 'Rubik's cube on steroids' The Trojan Horse of protectionism Federal Reserve officials' stock trading sparks ethics review MORE (D-Mass.) were the two biggest winners, while former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHouse clears bill to provide veterans with cost-of-living adjustment On The Money — Dems dare GOP to vote for shutdown, default To reduce poverty, stop burdening the poor: What Joe Manchin gets wrong about the child tax credit MORE lost ground on prediction and betting markets after the first two Democratic debates this week.

As of Friday morning Harris, who impressed with a direct attack on Biden, was tied with Warren on top of PredictIt, a market where participants bet on whether a candidate will, or will not, become the party's nominee.

On Bovada and BetOnline, which take a more traditional approach to reflect odds, Harris and Warren propelled themselves into the same tier as Biden, with Harris even becoming the favorite to win the nomination in least one market.


Another big climber was former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, who capitalized on his detailed immigration stances.

He was a distant outsider on most markets, but has now placed himself near Sen. Cory BookerCory BookerDOJ announces agencywide limits on chokeholds and no-knock entries Fighting poverty, the Biden way Top Senate Democrats urge Biden to take immediate action on home confinement program MORE (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeAnti-Greg Abbott TV ad pulled minutes before college football game: Lincoln Project O'Rourke prepping run for governor in Texas: report Support for Abbott plunging in Texas: poll MORE (D-Texas) who have been polling a few points above him in state and local polls.

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersPelosi says House members would not vote on spending bill topline higher than Senate's Groups push lawmakers to use defense bill to end support for Saudis in Yemen civil war Congress must address the looming debt crisis MORE (I-Vt.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegOn The Money — Presented by Wells Fargo — Pelosi plows full speed ahead on jam-packed agenda Blumenthal calls on Buttigieg to investigate American Airlines-JetBlue partnership LGBT film festival to premiere documentary about Pete Buttigieg MORE, two of the other top tier candidates, remained generally stable.

But Biden lost ground in two of the three betting markets being tracked by The Hill, after the former vice president was widely seen as having faltered on Thursday night's debate. 

The Hill tracked three of the biggest markets on Wednesday, just hours before the start of the first of the two Democratic primary debates this week.

Here is how the 2020 candidates have shifted now that the debates have concluded.


The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants purchase shares of whether a candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each share.

21 cents: Warren (-1), Harris (+9)

20 cents: Biden (-6)

15 cents: Buttigieg (+2)

14 cents: Sanders (-1)

9 cents: Entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangAndrew Yang planning to launch third party: report Poll: 73 percent of Democratic voters would consider voting for Biden in the 2024 primary Kings launch voting rights effort honoring John Lewis MORE (-5)

5 cents: Booker (0)

4 cents: Castro (+3), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardProgressives breathe sigh of relief after Afghan withdrawal Hillicon Valley: US has made progress on cyber but more needed, report says | Democrat urges changes for 'problematic' crypto language in infrastructure bill | Facebook may be forced to unwind Giphy acquisition YouTube rival Rumble strikes deals with Tulsi Gabbard, Glenn Greenwald MORE (D-Hawaii) (0)

2 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharThis week: Democrats face mounting headaches Klobuchar: 'It is evil to make it deliberately hard for people to vote' Democrats push to shield election workers from violent threats   MORE (D-Minn.) (-2), O'Rourke (-3)

1 cent: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandHochul tells Facebook to 'clean up the act' on abortion misinformation after Texas law Democratic senators request probe into Amazon's treatment of pregnant employees The FBI comes up empty-handed in its search for a Jan. 6 plot MORE (N.Y.) (-1), no change: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetBuild Back Better Act must include funding to restore forests, make communities resilient and create jobs Interior reverses Trump, moves BLM headquarters back to DC Conservation group says it will only endorse Democrats who support .5T spending plan MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanRep. Tim Ryan becomes latest COVID-19 breakthrough case in Congress Centrist state lawmaker enters Ohio GOP Senate primary Hawley endorses Vance in Ohio Senate race MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellOvernight Defense & National Security — Milley becomes lightning rod The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by National Industries for the Blind - Schumer: Dem unity will happen eventually; Newsom prevails How lawmakers aided the Afghan evacuation MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeSeattle area to require COVID-19 vaccine to enter indoor venues Washington state troopers, firefighters sue over vaccine mandate Washington state enacting mask mandate for large outdoor events MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve Bullock65 former governors, mayors back bipartisan infrastructure deal Arkansas, New Jersey governors to head National Governors Association Biden 'allies' painting him into a corner MORE, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperRep. Tim Ryan becomes latest COVID-19 breakthrough case in Congress NY Democrat tests positive for COVID-19 in latest House breakthrough case Florida Democrat becomes latest breakthrough COVID-19 case in House MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn DelaneyDirect air capture is a crucial bipartisan climate policy Lobbying world Coronavirus Report: The Hill's Steve Clemons interviews Rep. Rodney Davis MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson calls federal judge's handling of Steven Donziger case 'unconstitutional' Marianne Williamson calls on Biden to drop efforts to extradite Assange Susan Sarandon and Marianne Williamson call for justice in Steven Donziger case MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de BlasioNew York to start weekly COVID-19 testing in schools Three arrested for allegedly assaulting NYC hostess who asked for COVID-19 vaccine proof Letitia James holding private talks on running for New York governor: report MORE


Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+200: Biden (0)

+450: Harris (-100), Warren (-250)

+500: Buttigieg (+100)

+550: Sanders (+100)

+1,300: Yang (+100)

+1,800: O'Rourke (0)

+2,500: Gabbard (-500)

+4,000: Klobuchar (0), Booker (+700)

+8,000: Gillibrand (0)

+10,000: Castro (+2,000), de Blasio (N/A), Swalwell (N/A), Inslee (N/A), Delaney (N/A), Hickenlooper (N/A), Williamson (N/A), Bennet (N/A), Ryan (N/A)


BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+250: Harris (-550)

+325: Biden (+150)

+450: Warren (+100)

+800: Sanders (0), Buttigieg (+300)

+1,200: Yang (+200)

+2,500: Booker (-800), Castro (-2,500)

+4,000: O'Rourke (+1,500)

+5,000: Gillibrand (0), Klobuchar (0), Gabbard (0)

+10,000: Hickenlooper (0), Delaney (0), Ryan (0), de Blasio (0), Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) (0), Bullock (0), Inslee (0), Swalwell (0), Bennet (0)

+20,000: Williamson (N/A)