Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Julián Castro jabs ICE: 'Delete your account' Pelosi endorses Christy Smith in bid to replace Katie Hill MORE (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Warren, Buttigieg duke it out in sprint to 2020 The Memo: Pelosi-Trump trade deal provokes debate on left MORE (D-Mass.) were the two biggest winners, while former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Democrats seek leverage for trial Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE lost ground on prediction and betting markets after the first two Democratic debates this week.

As of Friday morning Harris, who impressed with a direct attack on Biden, was tied with Warren on top of PredictIt, a market where participants bet on whether a candidate will, or will not, become the party's nominee.

On Bovada and BetOnline, which take a more traditional approach to reflect odds, Harris and Warren propelled themselves into the same tier as Biden, with Harris even becoming the favorite to win the nomination in least one market.

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Another big climber was former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, who capitalized on his detailed immigration stances.

He was a distant outsider on most markets, but has now placed himself near Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Julián Castro jabs ICE: 'Delete your account' Booker campaign unveils bilingual training program for Nevada caucus MORE (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeButtigieg picks up third congressional endorsement from New York lawmaker Klobuchar hires staff in Nevada Deval Patrick enters 2020 race MORE (D-Texas) who have been polling a few points above him in state and local polls.

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Warren, Buttigieg duke it out in sprint to 2020 The Memo: Pelosi-Trump trade deal provokes debate on left MORE (I-Vt.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Warren, Buttigieg duke it out in sprint to 2020 Krystal Ball warns about lagging youth support for Buttigieg MORE, two of the other top tier candidates, remained generally stable.

But Biden lost ground in two of the three betting markets being tracked by The Hill, after the former vice president was widely seen as having faltered on Thursday night's debate. 

The Hill tracked three of the biggest markets on Wednesday, just hours before the start of the first of the two Democratic primary debates this week.

Here is how the 2020 candidates have shifted now that the debates have concluded.

PREDICTIT

The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants purchase shares of whether a candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each share.

21 cents: Warren (-1), Harris (+9)

20 cents: Biden (-6)

15 cents: Buttigieg (+2)

14 cents: Sanders (-1)

9 cents: Entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Krystal Ball warns about lagging youth support for Buttigieg Saagar Enjeti calls Yang's rise a 'return to the fundamentals of democracy' MORE (-5)

5 cents: Booker (0)

4 cents: Castro (+3), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Gabbard news items generating more social interactions than other 2020 Democrats: study The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - An unusual day: Impeachment plus a trade deal MORE (D-Hawaii) (0)

2 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by AdvaMed - House panel expected to approve impeachment articles Thursday Democrats seek leverage for trial Horowitz offers troubling picture of FBI's Trump campaign probe MORE (D-Minn.) (-2), O'Rourke (-3)

1 cent: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandAdvocacy groups decry Trump's 'anti-family policies' ahead of White House summit This bipartisan plan is the most progressive approach to paid parental leave Bombshell Afghanistan report bolsters calls for end to 'forever wars' MORE (N.Y.) (-1), no change: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetTrump trade deal likely to sow division in Democratic presidential field Schumer to colleagues running for White House: Impeachment comes first Sanders urges impeachment trial 'quickly' in the Senate MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanGM among partners planning .3B battery plant in Ohio San Francisco 49ers suspend announcer after reference to quarterback's 'dark skin' More than 100 Democrats sign letter calling for Stephen Miller to resign MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellLawmakers prep ahead of impeachment hearing Trump: Fox News 'panders' to Democrats by having on liberal guests Democrats could introduce articles of impeachment next week MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeFight against flavored e-cigarettes goes local Krystal Ball: What Harris's exit means for the other 2020 candidates Bullock drops White House bid, won't run for Senate MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockThe Hill's Campaign Report: Democrats worry about diversity on next debate stage The Hill's Morning Report — Pelosi makes it official: Trump will be impeached Steve Bullock exits: Will conservative Democrats follow? MORE, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Impeachment enters new crucial phase Bullock drops White House bid, won't run for Senate 2020 hopes rise for gun control groups after Virginia elections MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn Kevin DelaneyThe great AI debate: What candidates are (finally) saying about artificial intelligence Delaney to DNC: Open second debate stage for candidates who qualified for past events Krystal Ball: What Harris's exit means for the other 2020 candidates MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonThe Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by UANI — GOP, Democrats square off at final impeachment hearing Marianne Williamson roasted for claim Trump pardoned Charles Manson Democrats take in lobbying industry cash despite pledges MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de BlasioNYPD creates special unit for far-right and neo-Nazi threats Mayor accuses de Blasio of dumping New York's homeless in Newark Conservatives must absolutely talk politics at the Thanksgiving table MORE

BOVADA

Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+200: Biden (0)

+450: Harris (-100), Warren (-250)

+500: Buttigieg (+100)

+550: Sanders (+100)

+1,300: Yang (+100)

+1,800: O'Rourke (0)

+2,500: Gabbard (-500)

+4,000: Klobuchar (0), Booker (+700)

+8,000: Gillibrand (0)

+10,000: Castro (+2,000), de Blasio (N/A), Swalwell (N/A), Inslee (N/A), Delaney (N/A), Hickenlooper (N/A), Williamson (N/A), Bennet (N/A), Ryan (N/A)

BETONLINE

BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+250: Harris (-550)

+325: Biden (+150)

+450: Warren (+100)

+800: Sanders (0), Buttigieg (+300)

+1,200: Yang (+200)

+2,500: Booker (-800), Castro (-2,500)

+4,000: O'Rourke (+1,500)

+5,000: Gillibrand (0), Klobuchar (0), Gabbard (0)

+10,000: Hickenlooper (0), Delaney (0), Ryan (0), de Blasio (0), Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) (0), Bullock (0), Inslee (0), Swalwell (0), Bennet (0)

+20,000: Williamson (N/A)