Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Five takeaways from the Democratic debate in Ohio Warren leads in speaking time during debate MORE (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Five takeaways from the Democratic debate in Ohio New study: Full-scale 'Medicare for All' costs trillion over 10 years MORE (D-Mass.) were the two biggest winners, while former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Five takeaways from the Democratic debate in Ohio New study: Full-scale 'Medicare for All' costs trillion over 10 years MORE lost ground on prediction and betting markets after the first two Democratic debates this week.

As of Friday morning Harris, who impressed with a direct attack on Biden, was tied with Warren on top of PredictIt, a market where participants bet on whether a candidate will, or will not, become the party's nominee.

On Bovada and BetOnline, which take a more traditional approach to reflect odds, Harris and Warren propelled themselves into the same tier as Biden, with Harris even becoming the favorite to win the nomination in least one market.

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Another big climber was former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, who capitalized on his detailed immigration stances.

He was a distant outsider on most markets, but has now placed himself near Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Warren leads in speaking time during debate Democrats wrangle over whether to break up Big Tech in debate first MORE (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Warren leads in speaking time during debate Democrats wrangle over whether to break up Big Tech in debate first MORE (D-Texas) who have been polling a few points above him in state and local polls.

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Five takeaways from the Democratic debate in Ohio New study: Full-scale 'Medicare for All' costs trillion over 10 years MORE (I-Vt.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Five takeaways from the Democratic debate in Ohio New study: Full-scale 'Medicare for All' costs trillion over 10 years MORE, two of the other top tier candidates, remained generally stable.

But Biden lost ground in two of the three betting markets being tracked by The Hill, after the former vice president was widely seen as having faltered on Thursday night's debate. 

The Hill tracked three of the biggest markets on Wednesday, just hours before the start of the first of the two Democratic primary debates this week.

Here is how the 2020 candidates have shifted now that the debates have concluded.

PREDICTIT

The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants purchase shares of whether a candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each share.

21 cents: Warren (-1), Harris (+9)

20 cents: Biden (-6)

15 cents: Buttigieg (+2)

14 cents: Sanders (-1)

9 cents: Entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Warren leads in speaking time during debate Democrats debate in Ohio: Who came out on top? MORE (-5)

5 cents: Booker (0)

4 cents: Castro (+3), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Warren leads in speaking time during debate Democrats debate in Ohio: Who came out on top? MORE (D-Hawaii) (0)

2 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field Five takeaways from the Democratic debate in Ohio Warren leads in speaking time during debate MORE (D-Minn.) (-2), O'Rourke (-3)

1 cent: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandLobbying world 2020 Presidential Candidates Krystal Ball: Yang campaign a 'triumph of substance over the theatre' MORE (N.Y.) (-1), no change: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Hunter Biden speaks out amid Ukraine controversy Impeachment threatens to create conflicts for Democratic candidates 2020 primary debate guide: Everything you need to know ahead of the October showdown MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) John RyanThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Hunter Biden speaks out amid Ukraine controversy 2020 primary debate guide: Everything you need to know ahead of the October showdown 2020 Presidential Candidates MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellDemocratic lawmaker: Expelling Turkey from NATO 'should be on the table' Top State Department official arrives for testimony in impeachment probe 2020 Presidential Candidates MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeCNN catches heat for asking candidates about Ellen, Bush friendship at debate 2020 Presidential Candidates Warren environmental justice plan focuses third of climate investment on disadvantaged communities MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Hunter Biden speaks out amid Ukraine controversy 5 things to watch in the latest Democratic debate Warren expresses support for Indigenous Peoples' Day MORE, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperGardner dodges questions about Trump's call for Biden probe 2020 Presidential Candidates Krystal Ball: Yang campaign a 'triumph of substance over the theatre' MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn Kevin DelaneyWarren defends, Buttigieg attacks in debate that shrank the field The Hill's 12:30 Report: Hunter Biden speaks out amid Ukraine controversy 2020 primary debate guide: Everything you need to know ahead of the October showdown MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Hunter Biden speaks out amid Ukraine controversy 2020 primary debate guide: Everything you need to know ahead of the October showdown 2020 Presidential Candidates MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de Blasio2020 Presidential Candidates Cooperate, or else: New York threatens fines to force people to help block immigration enforcement DNC raises qualifying thresholds for fifth presidential debate MORE

BOVADA

Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+200: Biden (0)

+450: Harris (-100), Warren (-250)

+500: Buttigieg (+100)

+550: Sanders (+100)

+1,300: Yang (+100)

+1,800: O'Rourke (0)

+2,500: Gabbard (-500)

+4,000: Klobuchar (0), Booker (+700)

+8,000: Gillibrand (0)

+10,000: Castro (+2,000), de Blasio (N/A), Swalwell (N/A), Inslee (N/A), Delaney (N/A), Hickenlooper (N/A), Williamson (N/A), Bennet (N/A), Ryan (N/A)

BETONLINE

BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+250: Harris (-550)

+325: Biden (+150)

+450: Warren (+100)

+800: Sanders (0), Buttigieg (+300)

+1,200: Yang (+200)

+2,500: Booker (-800), Castro (-2,500)

+4,000: O'Rourke (+1,500)

+5,000: Gillibrand (0), Klobuchar (0), Gabbard (0)

+10,000: Hickenlooper (0), Delaney (0), Ryan (0), de Blasio (0), Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) (0), Bullock (0), Inslee (0), Swalwell (0), Bennet (0)

+20,000: Williamson (N/A)