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Poll: Beto O'Rourke leads 2020 Democrats in Texas by 3 points, followed by Biden

Poll: Beto O'Rourke leads 2020 Democrats in Texas by 3 points, followed by Biden

Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) leads the 2020 primary field in his home state by 3 points over the front-runner, former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenIntercept bureau chief: minimum wage was not 'high priority' for Biden in COVID-19 relief South Carolina Senate adds firing squad as alternative execution method Obama alum Seth Harris to serve as Biden labor adviser: report MORE, according a new poll released Tuesday

O’Rourke saw a 12-point uptick, from 15 to 27 percent, since last month’s University of Texas poll — pulling into first among Texas voters. Biden’s support increased 1 point, from 23 percent to 24 percent, placing him second to O’Rourke.

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Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersIntercept bureau chief: minimum wage was not 'high priority' for Biden in COVID-19 relief Murkowski never told White House she would oppose Tanden Tanden withdraws nomination as Biden budget chief MORE (I-Vt.) trailed in third at 15 percent, and Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenOvernight Health Care: Biden says US will have enough vaccine for all adults by end of May | Biden calls on all states to vaccinate teachers by the end of March | Texas, Mississippi lift mask mandates Biden picks for financial agencies offer preview of regulatory agenda Becerra tells Warren he will do 'thorough review' of executive actions on drug prices MORE (D-Mass.) and Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisElla Emhoff, inauguration designer join forces on knitwear collaboration Who is the Senate parliamentarian and why is she important? In America, women are frontliners of change MORE (D-Calif.) are statistically tied within the margin of error at 11 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

According to the Texas poll, O’Rourke’s lead widens to 38 percent among primary voters when the survey included independent Democratic-leaners, whereas Biden’s support shrinks to 19 percent when such voters are factored in. 

The Texas primary will be held on March 3, “Super Tuesday,” along with the primaries in 16 other states. 

O’Rourke, as an underdog Senate candidate, lost to incumbent Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzTanden withdraws nomination as Biden budget chief Boehner book jacket teases slams against Cruz, Trump Senate confirms Biden Commerce secretary pick Gina Raimondo MORE (R) in 2018, but the close race for state-wide office in what was once seen as a Republican stronghold is putting the state back in play for 2020.

A Democratic presidential candidate has not won the state in 40 years, since President Carter in 1976. 

Four of the six leading primary candidates in Texas beat Trump in a general election mockup, based on the poll.

O’Rourke holds the strongest lead over Trump, at 48.8 percent to 37.6 percent. Warren holds a 40.7 to 38.2 percent lead, Sanders holds a 39.2 to 37.3 percent lead, and Harris tops Trump with 39.8 percent to 38.5 percent.

Trump holds a lead over Biden, the Democratic frontrunner, though only two-tenths of a point separate the two candidates. Trump wins 37.1 percent to Biden's 36.9 percent. Trump has a larger lead over Buttigieg, taking 38.6 percent to Buttigieg's 33 percent.

Although O’Rourke appears to be polling strong with Texas voters, he’s trailing the crowded field in most national polls, barely breaking 3 percent. A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows O’Rourke at 2.8 percent, trailing Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegHarris pushes for support for cities in coronavirus relief package Exclusive: How Obama went to bat for Warren The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden vs. Trump, part II MORE (D). 

Twenty of the 2020 Democrats will face off Tuesday and Wednesday in two nights of debates in Detroit. 

O’Rourke is one of eight candidates that has already met the threshold to qualify for the third debate, which will be held in Houston at Texas Southern University on Sept. 12 and Sept. 13.

--Updated at 11:06 a.m.