New poll shows Biden falling badly, three-way tie for Democratic lead

Joe BidenJoe BidenChina eyes military base on Africa's Atlantic coast: report Biden orders flags be flown at half-staff through Dec. 9 to honor Dole Biden heading to Kansas City to promote infrastructure package MORE’s support in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is slipping, according to a new survey from Monmouth University Poll that shows the former vice president dropping below 20 percent.

The survey showed Biden with support from 19 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters nationally, a double-digit decline from Monmouth's most recent poll in June when he led the pack with 32 percent.

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Now, the dynamics have changed, according to the Monmouth survey. Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersWTO faces renewed scrutiny amid omicron threat Overnight Health Care — Presented by March of Dimes — Abortion access for 65M women at stake Hospitals in underserved communities face huge cuts in reckless 'Build Back Better' plan MORE (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren calls on big banks to follow Capital One in ditching overdraft fees Crypto firm top executives to testify before Congress Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker won't seek reelection MORE (D-Mass.), the primary field’s top progressive candidates, are each at 20 percent, putting them in a statistical tie with Biden and indicating a tightening three-way race.

Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisBiden cannot allow his domestic fumbles to transfer to the world stage Joe Manchin should embrace paid leave — now The Hill's 12:30 Report: Biden defends disappointing jobs report MORE (D-Calif.) was a distant fourth in Monday's poll, with 8 percent. Her level of support was unchanged from Monmouth's June survey.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Congress avoids shutdown Harris's office undergoes difficult reset The Hill's 12:30 Report: Biden to announce increased measures for omicron MORE, who has registered among the top contenders in polls for months, is now tied for fifth place with Sen. Cory BookerCory BookerMaternal and child health legislation must be prioritized now Poll: Harris, Michelle Obama lead for 2024 if Biden doesn't run Five reasons for Biden, GOP to be thankful this season MORE (D-N.J.) at 4 percent.

Only four other candidates — former tech executive Andrew YangAndrew YangAmerican elections are getting less predictable; there's a reason for that Poll: Harris, Michelle Obama lead for 2024 if Biden doesn't run At 28 percent approval, say goodbye to Kamala Harris being Plan B to an aging Biden MORE, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and bestselling author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson: Steven Donziger sentencing is meant to have a 'chilling effect' on environmentalists Marianne Williamson calls federal judge's handling of Steven Donziger case 'unconstitutional' Marianne Williamson calls on Biden to drop efforts to extradite Assange MORE — garnered support form more than 1 percent of respondents in the poll.

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said the latest survey results suggest the race for the Democratic nomination is entering a new phase.

“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile,” Murray said. “Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden.”

But instead of gravitating toward a lesser-known but more centrist-minded alternative, moderate voters “are swinging more toward one of the left-leaning contenders with high name recognition.”

Indeed, Biden has lost support among Democrats who identify as either moderate or conservative. In June, roughly 40 percent of those voters said they backed Biden’s bid for the nomination. Since then, that number has dropped to 22 percent.

There are signs that moderate and conservative Democrats are beginning to gravitate toward Sanders and Warren. Sanders saw his support among those voters jump from 10 percent to 20 percent over the past two months, while backing for Warren rose from 6 percent to 16 percent.

Since June, both Sanders and Warren have gained support overall, according to the Monmouth poll. Sanders gained 6 points in the latest survey, while Warren picked up 5 points.

At the same time, Warren has seen a noticeable uptick in favorability, climbing from 60 percent in May to 65 percent in August. Biden, on the other hand, saw his favorability drop from 74 percent to 66 percent during the same time period.

The Monmouth University Poll surveyed 298 registered voters who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning from Aug. 16-20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.