Poll: Biden leads 2020 Democrats, Warren surges to third behind Sanders

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHarris to host virtual Hollywood campaign event co-chaired by Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling Trump plans to accept Republican nomination from White House lawn US seizes four vessels loaded with Iranian fuel MORE leads the pack of Democratic presidential candidates, but Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenChris Wallace: Trump struggling with attacks on 'shape-shifter' Harris Markey riffs on JFK quote in new ad touting progressive bona fides Howard Kurtz: Kamala Harris 'getting walk on water coverage' by media after VP pick MORE (D-Mass.) is on the rise, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill.

The survey shows Biden in first place with 32 percent support among Democrats, followed by Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersChris Wallace: Trump struggling with attacks on 'shape-shifter' Harris Kamala Harris: The outreach Latinos need Biden and Harris seen as more moderate than Trump and Pence: poll MORE (I-Vt.) at 16 percent, both falling slightly from the previous poll.

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But Warren isn’t far behind. The new poll pegs her support at 13 percent — a 5-point jump since the last Harvard CAPS/Harris poll was conducted in the wake of the July Democratic presidential debates in Detroit. 

That places her third, replacing Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisHarris to host virtual Hollywood campaign event co-chaired by Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling Democrats hammer Trump for entertaining false birther theory about Harris Hillicon Valley: 'Fortnite' owner sues Apple after game is removed from App Store | Federal agencies seize, dismantle cryptocurrency campaigns of major terrorist organizations MORE (D-Calif.) who came in fourth place with 7 percent support in the latest poll. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - The choice: Biden-Harris vs. Trump-Pence California Democrats back Yang after he expresses disappointment over initial DNC lineup Obamas, Clintons to headline Biden's nominating convention MORE and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) tied for fifth place with 4 percent support.

Only two other candidates notched above 1 percent in the survey: Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerOn The Money: Pelosi, Mnuchin talk but make no progress on ending stalemate | Trump grabs 'third rail' of politics with payroll tax pause | Trump uses racist tropes to pitch fair housing repeal to 'suburban housewife' The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden, Harris make first public appearance as running mates Booker hits back at Trump tweet, mocks misspelling of name MORE (D-N.J.), with 3 percent, and former tech executive Andrew YangAndrew YangThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump threatens Postal Service funding l Biden proposes national mask mandate l Democratic convention takes shape Bloomberg to speak at Democratic convention Allegations roil progressive insurgent's House bid MORE, with 2 percent.

While Biden still holds a comfortable lead over his closest competitors, his support is down 2 points from the last Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. No candidate gained more in the latest survey than Warren, who has been steadily climbing in public polls for months.

“Biden continues in our poll to have a steady lead above his rivals but that lead in the low 30s is no guarantee of the nomination,” Mark PennMark PennGOP fears Trump attacks on mail-in vote will sabotage turnout Poll: 70 percent of Americans support voting by mail Biden, under Trump attack, casts himself as firm on China MORE, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, said. 

“He has to show some movement soon as others are gaining in excitement and momentum. There may be scores of candidates in the race but only a few of them are getting to double digits.”

Still, Biden remains the candidate that voters see as having the best chance of defeating President TrumpDonald John TrumpUSPS warns Pennsylvania mail-in ballots may not be delivered in time to be counted Michael Cohen book accuses Trump of corruption, fraud Trump requests mail-in ballot for Florida congressional primary MORE in 2020. Thirty-six percent of respondents pointed to the vice president as the most formidable challenger to the president, while 13 percent chose Sanders and 8 percent picked Warren. 

The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll surveyed 985 registered Democratic voters from Aug. 26-28. The poll is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll. The Hill will be working with Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll throughout 2019.

Full poll results will be posted online later this week. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.